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Yawn

Kipperfoot,yes you could be wrong. Last month's production figures were not published because they have switched to 3 month reporting as allowed by the rules and practised by most companies. There is no reason to suppose they are crap (or particularly good either). I would guess 1700 bopd. We will find out soon - definitely before the AGM on July 29th.

What depresses share price? Poor figures you suggest. Actually an absence of information is probably having a worse effect at present. You are right in one respect: there are bound to be some cashflow issues from the covid crisis and indeed they have been relatively upfront about that by referring to the loan funding of new drills and explaing the consequences of moving to international prices. It seems to me that they have been dealing with the cashflow issues quite well.

An opportunity has arisen for us to ask questions without attending the AGM, which will be held as a closed meeting with proxy voting only (see RNS). This is a great chance for the many unanswered questions raised hereto be put directly to the board.

A few suggestions:
How much has been borrowed to fund current drilling operations in the MJF structure?
What has been the precise consequence of moving to international prices on cashflow and when will that be offset by higher profits at the higher prices
What exactly is the current position on A5?
What has been the impact of Covid on operations and on profitabiltiy in the first 6 months of 2020?
Where are we with Drilly McBoatface?

We should therefore be getting a quarterly update on output and perhaps other matters in two to three weeks time. It is unlikely to contain anything particularly exciting and will probably say output is steady at 1700 bopd with some updates on drilling progress on the new shallow wells. More details on loans taken out would be helpful but that is not guarranteed. Without further news, the next major update will be in October. I think we may be in for a quiet summer with one new well flowing at some point and another on the way. We all know not to be too optimistic about progress on A5, but you never know!

Coffee, you're really not reading what I wrote at all are you? Yes, obviously, I know that, I implied that. Its not a surprise. It's a good move under the circumstances, it will pay for itself relatively quickly. Debt is still low.

This squabble between us must be very boring for everyone else so I won't reply again whatever you post. Get back to sunning yourself on Bournemouth beach.

Mr C, Fidelio only has 122 posts to his/her name and may be relatively new to investing, so I think that's a bit hard!

Fidelio, CASP has a multibagging upside because of the deep wells that it has been trying to flow for some years without much success. There are some reasons to suppose that more sophisticated treatments are being used to make them flow, but some people remain cynical because of the company's poor record in the past and its poor communications.

On the other hand, the shallow MJF field has been more successful and there is currently a program of infill wells which has of course been slowed down by the covid crisis. CASP is a low debt company, but is currently dealing with the drop in oil prices and the switch to being paid 2 months in arrears for (higher) international prices for 60% of its output rather than one month in advance for domestic sales.

The share price is liable to wide fluctuations which recently of course have mainly been downwards. Good luck

CC adopting a tone you used earlier: please read carefully. You said they would have borrowed $2.4m and I said it would be less than $3m. So I think that is correct. MJF wells have been producing up to 500 bopd, so one could easily cover Yelemes. Of course there could be a duster or a problem leading to less than average output, but that has not been the recent experience. The new well would only have to produce a little over your average estimate of 243 bopd for me to be correct on output replacement. Of course the Yelemes output has already been shut down, so its extra output.

It is so clear that you are on a deramping campaign at present that it is positivley embarrassing. Your argument only works if the duster is a certainty.

Thanks for your clear and factual exposition CC. The same facts can be presented in a slightly different way.
Yelemes was contributing little to output and will be more than replaced by one MJF well, which should be producing over the summer. A second new well should follow over the autumn.

Recovery of the share price depends on the oil price remaining steady of course. The multi-bagging claims depend on the deeps and wehave always known that that is a gamble. A solid recovery should follow with the development of the MJF field and that will in turn improve the cash flow issues that have resulted from the Covid crisis and the switch to international sales.

The shallow wells are much cheaper to develop so the funding will be less than $3m. for both wells, which should pay for themselves by the end of the year on conservative assumptions. Since we own the rigs, development costs will be lower than in the past, so it could be substantially less than $3m

I think with the crash in oil prices, difficulties with paying suppliers are to be expected. With the recovery in oil prices it seems likely that this can be resolved.

Are you looking to buy in a 3p perhaps CC?Oor are you still going for 1p?

Smasher, I think CASP were in survival mode for a few months, but agree that they are now moving out of it and resuming attempted expansion (I say attempted because their bopd has been static or falling over the last year or so)

Presumably now they are reporting quarterly, we can expect an RNS on Q2 early in July

The sp fall is based on quite a few rather small sales. Volume is actually quite low this morning considering and there are a few purchases in there.

CC is quite right to complain about the lack of updates. The reporting is all about 2019 and we don't actually know what happened last month. I was also somewhat dismayed to see that capacity is described by Clive as both 1700bopd and 2000 bopd, perpuating a vagueness from previous RNSs

My conclusion from the RNS is that they have been in survival mode during the Covid crisis and the oil price crash, but they have suceeded in keeping afloat and, while having some issues, are not worried about the immediate future. One aspect of awitching to international prices that I hadn't thought about is that they have had to find 3 months worth of working capital as they move from being paid one month in advance to two months in arrears for 60% of their output (and more like 80% of their revenue). I think what has happened in the first 6 months of the year is that their lower revenue has meant that they have cut back massively on well development and remediation activity, although it would be nice to get more precise and up to date information. I believe it is the case that they are now in a position, with the recovery of the oil price, to move ahead cautiously with those activities. September may possibly see some good news

By the way CC you may be getting confused between the Black Lives Matter Movement and BLMUK. The latter does seem a bit Marxist but the former dissociates itself from them. Check out their websites

Thanks Tucson, the RNS wasn't showing on my LSE when I posted. It is a bit of a long read, but I think so far seems to be saying that nothing much has happened during the COVID emergency, but on the other hand nothing bad has happened. Discussion of the financing of the pipeline is interesting

CC, don't be silly racism has clearly absolutely nothing to do with Marxism. In any case many investors find Marxist analysis of capitalismm very useful when trying to understnd the markets - without being Marxists themselves.

Taking the BLM campaign seriously is very important to me and I will call out racism when I see it. Some of my relatives are from ethnic minorities and I know at first hand their experiences in this country, despite having been born here.

I reported one post yesterday and LSE removed it.

However I agree that what we should be talking about is CASP. Where is the RNS Clive?

Whitelinesmatter was presumably linked to whitelivesmatter which is of course not racist in itself, but only in the context of the current BLM campaign, by appearing to negate or belittle it.

Just in case you missed it I was , I was replying to a post which has now been removed, probably because of the racist name of the poster , in connection with a banner flown over Burnley

Are you a Burnley supporter?

Possibly sheps, in the medium term. Meanwhile Brent continues to rise this morning, and news is likely to arrive on Thursday, or next Tusday at the absolute latest (AIM accounts deadline).

CC I can see your concern about the continued presence of the Kazakh seller holding the price back, but I can't see that as a reason for revisiting 2p or 1p or even 3p. When those levels were reached Brent was almost being given away and that simply isn't the case now. If the seller has a cashflow issue then they will be happier to sell at a higher price than a lower one. The contued rise in Brent combined with the possibility of at least some good news this week tells me that the SP will continue to rise.

Sparkz, one bit of info you may have missed is that the MJF structure is now being successfully exploited with new wells coming on stream and yielding up to 500 bopd. Acid treatments from Baker Hughes are also being used on the deeps now but this has been held up during Covid. There is a cracked pipe on A5 which we think is being replaced. The management acheived a massive drop in credibility (even by their standards) by claiming 1500 bopd for A5 in January but then admitting that this was only a potential and that they had only managed 40 bopd briefly.

Oh and also CC has been a bit of a Jeckyll and Hyde character recently switching between optimism and pessimism for reasons that he will now probably go on to try and explain to you.

Brent has just gone over $43. Whatever did or didn't happen earlier in the year and whatever whoever said did or didn't happen then, I think we can now safely move on
Problem 1: The oil price was killing the company's cash flow; SOLVED
Problem 2: CASP was not exploiting the MJF structure but pouring profits into the deeps; BEING PARTLY SOLVED
Problem 3: Kazakhstan has not been meeting its OPEC+ obligations and needs to cut production; PROBABLY NOT CASP
Problem 4: Cracked pipes and blockages in the deeps; NOT SOLVED YET; but we're used to that!
Problem 5: Poor and delayed communications; COULD BE SOLVED THIS WEEK; not very likely though!

In July we can hopefully have a more informed conversation about where we are with problems 4 and 5, but for now 3 out of 5 ain't bad. Let's call it 8p by the end of the month

I have a theory that if the number of comments exceeds the number of trades (as they did easily on Friday) then we are either in for some very good or some very bad news.