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https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Norway-To-Slash-Oil-Output-By-250000-Bpd.html

Shell BP Tullow are all down as well so perhaps it is a sector thing today

Is the seller back? One 250k sale and one at 500k.

MLQ, Puntland is in Somalia, not Kazakhstan

Last time this happened, CASP also eventually went up, so if this is a solid uptrend in the price of oil, this should feed into the CASP sp in due course.

Agreed CC. We are locked in and demand will take a long time to recover, particularly in aviation, certainly for the rest of this year. The big unknown is how supply will respond. OPEC+ are likely to cut back production even further sometime over the summer and if they can get Putin on board then this could shift prices back into the 30s. The USA may decide to get protectionist on oil to protect the shale sector, but output from this sector is likely to decline. Offshore is clearly uneconomic at these prices and exploration will close down.

When black swans come along prediction goes out of the window. IMO the share will get back up to 8p when the oil price gets back into the $50-$60 range, even without deeps. The more difficult question is when will the oil price get back up to those giddy heights? There will be a storage hangover for the price even when demand does recover . I would guess 2022 at least before oil demand returns to its pre covid levels. The question therefore turns back to supply and that is down to OPEC+ and the possible American protectionist response. I have a feeling that OPEC+ will struggle to agree to proper cutbacks in line with demand but the penny is beginning to drop. I would hazard a guess of the autumn at the earliest before supply is properly choked back. The oil price might then climb back into the 30s together with some more generous lockdown relaxations.

Things we don't know:
How big will the second wave of covid be?
Will A5 magically deliver 1500 bopd?
Will MBS become Putin's NBF?
Is there a purple swan hiding in the wings?

But since I sense you want an actual answer, then yes CASp will be above 10p by Xmas 2021

are getting down towards CASP breakeven levels. Most oil production around the world is already seriously in the red. OPEC+ will have to respond fairly soon, but may be waiting for the Yanks to hurt a bit more

As we all know, the big potential in this share lies with the deep wells. Concentrating on one well (A5) and finally solving the problems there could have a massive upside potential on the sp because getting A5 to flow, say between 1000 and 1500 bopd, would lead the market to believe that this was much more likely with the other deep wells currently in play with many more possible in the future.

A distinction is made between production of 1700 bopd and capacity of 2000 bopd. They're learning something from Covid19 government testing spin!

Oil price down, production up, outbreak of commonsense in the strategy - I think a modest move up today on balance

Venezuela might tip over the edge as well

in oil prices this morning. Probably temporary but may stabilise the SP today.

I think I am right in thinking that Brent future contracts expire on the 30th April. Will we see a similar drop in Brent at the end of the month? I don't know enough to answer that question, although I observe it dropping fast today. Any thoughts from those more knowledgeable about the oil markets?

However, WTI spot will be interesting when US markets open

WTI futures back up as expected, but Brent futures continuing to gently slide down. We are still in profitable territory, but further cuts in output will be needed either by OPEC+ or just by normal commercial decision-making in response to the extended slump in prices, if oil prices are to stabilise.

Of course WTI will now bounce back until the next futures contracts fall due.

Because of the high cost of stopping shale production, then oil prices in the USA could theoretically become negative for a short while. The Donald will be tweeting for all he is worth for a people's revolution to end lockdown to save the bacon of his fellow Billionaires

Futures contracts for WTI fall due soon for delivery at Cushing OK and they're running out of storage capacity there. There are number of ways in which the glut impacts the market. Shale producers first have to think about the cost of shutting down operations versus the loss on continuing production. We are at the next stage in the US now which is the problem of where to put the surplus production and the cost of storage. Once we get to the stage of not being able to sell it at all, or the price leading to a loss greater than cost of maintaining production, then supply will be cut back for commercial reasons. We will still be left with a lake of oil which will depress prices for some time to come.

There should be a knock on effect on Brent, but I don't know when their futures contracts fall due.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52350082

The article is mainly about WTI and the US market, but is symptomatic of the general oversupply in the industry. The WTI Brent spread has widened significantly recently because of US oversupply which may well have a knock on effect on Brent prices before long.

It's probably much too early to say the the price of oil is settling down, but we seem to be around $28 now the OPEC reduction dust has settled a little. That is fine for CASP as we are profitable at these prices, although it does limit funds for expansion. It most definitely is not fine for many oil companies and production cut backs for commercial reasons are going to be progressively seen the longer this price level persists. The yanks may even put up tariffs to protect their industry.

CASP is low cost and debt free, something which many other oilies cannot claim. The downside of CASP (unfulfilled promise in the deeps) is for the moment less important as the MJF infill process ramps up output. However the possibility of a flowing deep is still there in the background to entice investors in these difficult times.