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Agreed Opulentia, definitely not a share for widows and orphans and probably never was.

I think we are turning a corner however and my reasons for thinking this are as follows

Firstly the reduction in Saudi production seems to be pushing Brent towards $60 and maybe beyond
Secondly Kazakhstan's OPEC quota has been eased at the same time so export % may rise slowly
Thirdly the "loan" as you describe it is interest free and needs to be repaid over 10yrs and even these conditions may be eased if the appeal in court works. In fact it is not a loan, more like a deferred Royalty payment
Fourthly, output was low in Q3 but there are reasons to expect a small increase in Q4
Fifthly the Yelemes export licence must be coming before too long

On the downside British Bulls say the share is due to go on a run upwards, and they are often wrong

Brent is now through $55 and looks to be picking up speed.

I am expecting an RNS next Thursday where hopefully some of the outstanding issues with CASP can be clarified.
Brent is continuing its climb this morning

Brentastic morning!

Hi Tucson. I think we are waiting on news to overcome the mistrust that has arisen from poor communications in the past. I know you want out but need a higher price than this.

The court case, the lower than expected output in Q3, the true cashflow situation, the possibility of resuming MJF drilling, the granting of the export licence for Yelemes, the prospects for the boat, the restriction of export percentages, the problem of very low domestic prices, the question of a pipeline tenders are all uncertainties that will eventually need resolving to restore trust.

These are all issues that can be to some extent resolved by a January RNS. Of course not all of them can be resolved quickly but I think the share price will respond well to any increase in output in Q4 but will need a little good news on at least some of the other issues. Rising Brent prices will of course help with cashflow and improve some issues.

Opec+ update
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-04/oil-extends-losses-after-opec-talks-suspended-without-decision

I haven't seen the outcome of the OPEC+ Vienna meeting yet, but oil has just moved back up towards $53

If Adrianz is right about the out of court settlement, that would remove one uncertainty about CASP. A Q4 statement about output this week or next would resolve another uncertainty.
The new variant and its spread seems to have offset good news about the vaccine, and the recent rise in Brent seems to have stalled a little, but we remain above $50
They have dropped the bid based on no sales this morning. Sometimes that is to persuade a few wobblers to sell because they know there are about to be buyers out there.

Brent knocking on $53 this morning.

I think we should get there by the spring.

about the coming week. Thruppence possible!

CC is known as the fall guy because he eats so many fall pies. This ensures every time he falls, he bounces back again.

Agreed Belles on the deeps. However the MJF strategy made some sense - don't develop the field too much until export prices were available. Unfortunately the point at which this drilling programme was to lift off coincided almost exactly with the Covid crisis and the cashflow problems which came with it. The switch to an export licence created additional cashflow problems of its own as we went from being paid in advance to arrears for over 60% of our output.

Of course with the wisdom of hindsight we can see that they should have pushed for the export licence earlier and built up cash for a proper assault on the deeps instead of the cheap efforts that we could afford on domestic prices. But that aside, I don't think CASP could have reasonably anticipated the problems of 2020. It was a black swan for the oil industry.

They have done well to keep afloat during this period. Having done this, and with the recovery in Brent, 2021 should be a period of recovery for CASP and the sp should move up IMO.

A sale at 1.67p when the spread was 2.2 to 2.4 makes very little sense. I also suspect it may be a buy

The Brent chart continues to diplay considerable pointyupwardness (this is a technical term in handwavy economics), and the spread on CASP is narrowing satisfactorily. Perhaps there will be a jump after lunch.

Glad you liked it seaeagle! What with the recent P&D, you can't be too careful

The astrazenneca oil price surge has started this morning. Its cheap, its being produced "at scale and pace" , it will be available elsewhere in the world under licence, and you get considerable immunity 2 weeks after the first jab. The futures market should be able to extrapolate all of that into a rise in the demand for oil in the spring, if not before.

Meanwhile we also have the "seaeagle" surge in CASP. Let's hope it doesn't turn into a seagull

will probably be approved in the first week of January which should boost oil prices a little. Less certain is the effect of Q4 output numbers and other events at CASP, but with expectations low, even mildly good news could give us a lift!

seems to have halted the rise of Brent but we seem to be holding around $50 which is not too bad.
Seaeagle - keep fishing!

May I wish all CASPers a reasonably OK small scale Xmas and a COVID-free new year.
I have lost two relatives to the virus this past year, so if you have had similar experiences, my sympathies

I suspect we will continue to get $6 until such time as we pay off the credit they advanced us before Covid changed all the rules. Meanwhile we are back to export oil prices similar to those we enjoyed last February. Output is similar, possibly a little lower, and we are down about 10% on the export percentage. The cost of the low domestic oil price is about $180k pcm and the cost of the export reduction is about $250k pcm compared to January and February earlier this year.

On the plus side January and February were good months (apart from news about the deeps that is), and so I anticipate we are now in positive territory and gradually dealing with the backlog of cashflow problems that Covid brought, including eventually our debt to the Kazakh oil traders

I'm not really looking at the CASP sp at the moment. The important price for CASP is Brent, and that looks to be onsolidating itself over $50 in the last few days which is good news for CASP's cashflow over the winter and will hopefully enable more MJF drilling early in the spring as well as necessary workovers to maintain and enhance existing flows