Member Info for uncertain

Badgernator thinks you'll get away with it, so don't worry too much.
We all hope your're right Rocketeer, because we're already invested here, some of us for quite a while
We've been here long enough to have had quite a few people like you claiming inside knowledge only to be disappointed.
This is why your posts are not always taken seriously
On the other hands those of us who have done our homework know there are quite a number of things which would shove the price up quite substantially if they only happen, so we know there could be a sudden jump in price

Oh, and by the way, we're from the UK (mostly). We also like to have a few drinks, and have a few jokes at each other's expense, particularly if they are away with the fairies
Na Zdrowie.

Rocketeer, I am holding here simply on the baisis of the numbers and the many things that can go right in the next few months.

I have said it before, if you have an informant you really shouldn't reveal it here. It's called insider dealing. It's very naughty.

https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/6375.htm

I can now reveal that my informant is also arguing for 30p next week. She is an insistent voice living in my head, claiming to come from the future. She revealed herself to me in a dream last night and is about three inches tall with gossamer wings.

$69

According to my admittedly somewhat sketchy spreadsheet simulation, it would not take too much news to get us up to the 3-4p range at these prices for Brent. Getting rid of the BNG charge, a Yelelemes export licence, or a return to 70% exports would all do it on their own. All three together would put us in the 5-6p range IMO.

These sp forecasts are based on projected profits and a P/E of 10. If the credibility gap can be filled by a string of good news items, then this rational approach could be added to by the inclusion of things likely to happen in the near future like the MJF infill and continuing hikes in Brent.

The Boat and the Deeps are not needed for optimism here. 5p by June.

Brent briefly over $68 this morning.
I believe the OPEC meeting concludes today

The Brent chart has indeed taken on a very pointy up aspect after a week of stalling. $67.46 now.

I presume this RNS means that the Koreans are on the case. And that nothing else has happened.

I think maybe you don't understand irony, Rocketeer. By the way are you posting from Eastern Europe? I noticed a post from you before 5am the other day. Or just having sleepless nights!

News is well overdue. Who can say what it will be until it comes? Clearly a few people are willing to take a modest bet on it being good. Patience is needed. I may have said that before!

Yes staying with Caspian. It was supposed to be a play on words, but they don't usually work too well if you have to explain them! Come what may. Get it? ATB

So you're staying with them KumKuat May?

Rocketeer, I occasionally venture a prediction on this board. When I do I do it on my spreadsheet simulation of CASP. I put in lots of provisos and say there is some stuff I am just guessing at. I pumped a few assumptions into my model, keeping domestic prices at $6, pushing the export percentage up to 70%, leaving Brent at its current $65 and cancelling the BNG charge. With that set of assumptions I can get to 30p only by increasing output to 10,000 bopd.

I am assuming therefore that your information must relate to the deeps, or a charter for the boat. However given past experience with this share, the market would need the deeps to flow for more than 2 weeks to uprate significantly, so it must be Boaty McDrillface. If correct that would probably do the trick, but it would probably make you guilty of insider trading.

Be careful.

Every danger. In fact I am expecting it. A favourable court case outcome is worth about 1.2p on the share even without a refund IMO, or so my spreadsheet tells me. Call it tuppence with a refund.

Just a rumour of the deeps got us from 8p to 14p.
MJF, Yelemes, the court case, and Brent can get us from 2p back up to 8p
First things first. Deeps are for dreamers. I am a dreamer, but first we have to pay the rent and put food on the table.

The March 4th OPEC ministerial meeting should be interesting as the oil price continues to shoot up. There will be pressure to increase output.

is powering through $66 this afternoon. The trading pattern today strongly suggest a P&D exercise this week. Fortunately news is due, if not overdue. Not all of it will be good, but that is now expected. I am continuing to be patient.

Tucson, you should be out by the summer I think!

Actual buy and sell prices are really close to the edge of the spread, which is unusual, particularly for such a wide spread. The people who want to buy really want to buy, and the people who want to sell likewise.
How long can the MMs keep this up I wonder?

Probably in March then