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I've had my vaccination, but expect to live to see 10p again!

I was talking about 5p earlier this week

Discussion on ADVFN suggests that Daehan previously held theirshares through Baverstock but now own them directly. It could just be an internal transfer. Still if it encourages a little surge, that's OK by me.

Possibly they had to get this RNS out of the way before issuing the update on output and financials next week.

Is that an increase in Daehan's shareholding in the RNS. I had a bit of trouble interpreting the form

I can't see the major shareholders offloading at this price, Opulentia. You are quite right that there is a need for better direction at board level, although of course it is always easy to be wise after the event. Earlier development of the MJF structure withan associated move to an export licence would have resulted in a more profitable company which could have afforded a better attempt on the deeps. The strategy of trying to drill the deeps on the cheap as soon as cash became available has turned out to be a mistake. They have also been unlucky. The cashflow problems associated with switching from local traders who bought up front to export paid in arrears could have been weathered easily with a high oil price.

Looking backwards is always easier. What should they do now? I think they have probably done the right thing in cutting back their costs as much as possible and seeing it through the covid slump. The question is how should they get back to drilling? We obviously need to know more about their cashflow, profit, and current ouptu situation, but that info should come soon in February.

If they haven't got the cashflow to start up MJF drilling in the spring then they need to consider partnership or debt. Debt equity ratios will probably put quite a constraint on the latter. Work on existing deeps might be worth the trouble, but I don't really have the technical knowledge to make a judgement on that.

My own belief about the next RNS is that they will have come out of it battered but not beaten. Their plan for turning things around and moving forward will be crucial.

A little while ago Badgernator suggestedBrent at $60 would make use of Boaty more likely. Brent seems to have consolidated over the last three weeks in a range from just under $55 to just over $56. Revenues going forward should be quite solid.

Good idea lbyb, except that I felt like pressing both buttons. When was the last time we had an RNS that didn't contain some bad news? I ended up pressing the good news button because I think there will be more good news than bad.

I am not expecting anything dramatic soon either, but we could move to 3p with a modicum of good news in the February RNS. Of course then I have to define what I mean by good news, but with expectations so low, as I think you agree, then not too much might be needed. Some indication that our cashflow position is standing up to the strain might be enough together with a small increase in output.

A while ago (over a year) there was a discussion on this board about what the sp might be, based on MJF alone, and there was a concensus in the 6p to 8p range. At the time Brent was a little higher than it is now, and the cashflow and court case issues did not exist, so I feel 4 to 5p is achievable if we come out of this with an MJF drilling programme of some kind over the summer.
Later in the year, if Brent continues its upward trend, as some people now think possible, even the gidddy heights of 6p might be a possibility. Upward from there may need some combination of court case resolution, Yelemes export licence, and export percentage uplift. Success with the deeps or a drilly McBoatface contract would lead to a significant uplift.

Based on this 10p doesn't seem impossible by the end of the year, but the wind would have to blow in our favour

For the moment, forget about the deeps, forget about Drilly McBoatface. Que sera, sera!
Concentrate on a slow increase in MJF output, Yelemes export licence, debt to domestic oil traders, improvement in the cashflow position, possibility of resuming the MJF drilling progamme, resolution of the court case, increase in the allowed export percentage.

These are things I am looking for in the February RNS, whenever that should come. I am certainly not expecting improvement in all of these areas but I would be surprised if none of them make progress. We are currently priced with low expectations on all of them.

Can't disagree with that Tucson, but I think it might be a mistake to sell just yet.

The darkest time is just before dawn!

CC is your cup half full or half empty this time? Are you the pumpmeister or the dumpmeister? Or perhaps the innocent and puzzled observer?

All that is needed with this share is a lot of patience. Lots and lots of patience. I find all this shennanigans irritating and also rather amateur. The news will come when the news will come. We can predict some of it but much is in the lap of the gods. Some news will definitely come in February, but it will be far from decisive. More news will come in the Spring, but if it is good news it will probably only be the beginning of good news.

I am in this share because there is a lot of upside, but how much and when I will leave to false prophets.

This is the purest of speculation, both about the time (february would be more likely) and the content of this putative RNS.
It reminds me strongly of the sudden resurgence of satellite pictures of allegged flaring before the last P&D.

Seaeagle, are you flawless in disguise? You sound very much like him!

This share could very well go up a fair bit on relatively little news, providing it is news of the right kind (output, court case, export licence, export %) but blast off seems to be the wrong metaphor. More like bailed out and righted.

Keep the blast off metaphor for the deeps and use it sparingly and with caution, and certainly not just now!

KumKuat, I agree with you about the potential for output above 2k bopd, but without Yelemes that will probably not come until the spring. In the meantime 1600 bopd would be more realistic based on their last RNS.

MJF development depends on more investment, so that depends on how much revenue is left over after the BNG charge. I agree that we will be able to pay the charge, but the question is when can we drill more wells?

The nature of the hole we are in with the local traders has not yet been properly disclosed, as they do not have to do this until the year end financial information falls due, and probably were not keen to release this information at the height of the covid crisis (first wave). We will probably find out in February.

Reasns to be cheerful 1..2..3..
1. Kazakh export quota up
2. Brent up
3. Yelemes export licence expected

I mean debt, not deby!!

Information about what the deby might be would be a better start I think

It is difficult to know when to expect the next RNS as this time last year we were on a monthly reporting regime and the info usually came somewhere in the fortnight at the start of each month whereas we are now on a quarterly regime with a rather thin report on Q3 as a precedent.
Patience needed as Kum kuat says

So 850k shares bought and 1k sold and sp goes down without changing the spread....