Member Info for uncertain

Until some more news comes along I think we are going to have to put up with these realists versus fantasists exchanges. Fortunately there are quite a few realists out there who make sensible and useful contributions to the discussion based on the facts, in as much as we know them. Most of these contributors are LTHs who are optimistic that the sp will recover during the year without making crazy forecasts that the sp is about to magically multibag overnight.

Hang on in there realists. CASP is on the cusp.

Largely agreed lbyb, but I think the haemorrhaging happened last year, and that definitely is a fact, although its extent will only become apparent when we get the accounts next month. I think cashflow is now positive but not perhaps enough to allow us to do everything we would like to. Balanced positivity is what we need now.
I thinking posting can affect the price but only at the margins.

Say what you like about Rocky and Fido, they're not as bad a Hallow and Jamesy3 on ADVFN

Do you think they are suffering from some strange lockdown psychological condition?

Thanks badge for helping me in my new policy of not replying directly to Rocky's posts but instead allowing others to do it on my behalf.

I don't think the price yet reflects the MJF's and Yelemes' obvious potential, and is currently based purely on current levels of production. The sp can move up from here without the deeps, although of course with the deeps it would really motor.

There's not a lot to say at present KK, as we continue to wait on news, but we are at least confident now that news will be forthcoming.

I think we are entirely dependent on RNSs for information on fracking. I have no technical knowledge that would help.

Brent seems to be having a tilt at $68 this morning.

being pulled by the Sepano (IR) and going to Aktau?

If you have a case, make it. Otherwise it's just ramping.

Let's make it clear, if they solve the deeps then you will be right. But we all know that. We don't need you to tell us.

Rocketeer you must be completely unhinged. Your posts consist almost entirely of wild and unsubstantiated ramps. My posts consist almost entirely of analysis of the limited amount of data that is available plus a little bit of optimism.

If you don't have anything semnsible to say please say nothing. It's bad enough that ADVFN has been taken over by a couple of nutcases. Please leave LSE to people who want to have a sensible discussion.

Really Rocky, do you have so little understanding? What you do is ramping. I aspire merely to nudge.

That is a worrying state of mind Rocky. I have often been wrong. I like to think I learn from such experiences.

In any case you have quite patently been wrong on CASP already this year, because it was all supposed to have happened by now.

https://www.ukoog.org.uk/onshore-extraction/drilling-process

Is this the process CASP are trying?

That's my 2025 forecast!

Fido! Down boy, down boy! You're getting over-excited again. Rocketeer, back on your launch pad this instant!

CASP may be on the cusp, but it is still a delicate matter. Don't frighten the horses.

I just want to say that when I said, 7 minutes before trading started, that the RNS was worth 0.2p, that the fact that it has in fact gone up by 0.2p so far today is a complete coincidence. I wouldn't want any of you thinking that I knew what I was talking about!
Just for the record it'll be 5-6p in July as I posted a little while ago. If that turns out to be correct then I will still need a third one to make sure its not complete and utter luck. The third one is 10p by Xmas. :)

The effect of the rise in Brent this week from $63 to $67 should have a larger effect on the sp than the rise in the domestic price because it relates to 70% of output. My slightly dodgy spreadsheet puts us just short of 3p as a result of both price increases. The reopening of Yelemes when we get the the export licence should be worth a full penny.

The rise in oil prices both export and domestic are mainly significant because they make investment in expanding the MJF field easier and faster. Most of the upside is now in increasing out.

Scored, they only got $6 for most of the pandemic which had only gone up to $7.7 by the previous RNS. Export restrictions flooded the domestic market during the last year, but domestic prices are often under $20 anyway.
Brent is up over $67 this morning continuing its recent rise. I am not sure why we are getting this rise at the moment but it is most welcome.

My slightly dodgy spreadsheet says this morning's RNS is worth 0.2p on the SP. The domestic price is much less important than the international price, but of course the really important factor is output.

And now shooting up to $66. I wonder what's shifting it so fast?