Member Info for uncertain

https://www.caspiansunrise.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Caspian-Baverstock-presentation-11-May-2017.pdf

Found this on the website which descibes the shallows as medium to heavy while the deeps are 38-46 api, which supports bobsson's view

I was surprised by that one as well KK. My recollection is that MJF sells for close to Brent but I think we were told that quite a while ago.

I am going to suggest fourpence by the end of the week, once all the sellers have gone and the word gets about that something interesting is happening as CASP

They implied the 70/30 split would apply to the increased output, bobsson, but as usual the RNS lacked precision and they simply said the majority.

CASP has fallen of the radar of many investors out there. It may take a day or two to start to pull new investors in, but this now looks like a no-brainer

Well, having said in the spring that this could reach 5p in July, I have to say they have cut it very fine!

My dodgy spreadsheet suggests 6p would not be unreasonable at the new output levels, but the important thing is that they have demonstrated that this new approach works. Working in a second drill before the end of the year would really pushthe sp back up towards 10p.
I think they implied it could work with Yelemes as well (once we get the licence) but by that part of the RNS they were too excited to write properly.

We've waited long enough for some decent information, so I for one, don't mind waiting a few days more if jcb has managed to pin them down a bit more on the technical details

Brent is down 10% and so is CASP

I am waiting for Friday when we get some answers to questions on the CASP website

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57882449
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/6512.htm

2 million barrels a day extra. ??Yelemes licence??
They are meeting again in September

But then on the other hand Brent dropped to $73.25 at one point today. I think we are entering the silly season over the summer.

is going on another little run this evening, powering through $76 and still rising

Quite a good discussion of the wider political aspects here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-57753667

If you draw a straigh tline on the graph for Brent from November last year up to today, there is remarkably little deviation from it. I know extrapolation is a very simplistic form of forecasting, but the pattern is very strong. I think all the OPEC / non OPEC group of countries understand that there is much to be gained from restricting output and enjoying the benefits of the higher price, although I am sure discipline will eventually breakdown. UAE can't do this on their own, however.

CASP need both higher price and more export licences of course, but we could be in a win win situation if higher prices allow more drilling and then some relaxation of quotas later in the year result in the Yelemes export licence being granted.

Hi Auson, Oil has been rising by about $4 a month since last November in a pretty straight line. I am aware of the problems of relying on extrapolation, but this had been a very steady performance. The argument is that we are now in the upswing of the oil supercycle, but a reduction in exploration, exacerbated by the pandemic, and pressures from environmentalists (with good cause) are also helping. There are cracks opening in the agreement in the OPEC/non OPEC meetings (particularly UAE) but the unilateral reduction of the Saudis has been important. I agree with your opinion of Goldman, but they came late to the party in relation the bull forecast and are just playing catch up IMO

Hi Sotolo, Razorsedge tracked me down on CASP and said you had mentioned me. I am not currently invested in gold miners but amexpecting a larger increase in the price of oil. I just thought I would drop in here and let you know I am still alive.

The trade weighted dollar exchange rate may have more to do with the current rise in gold IMO. Is the cat dead? We shall have to wait and find out? Pobably is though.

I don't think I knew that, but anyway apologies for the casual sexism of my assumption

The fact that no replacement date has been given as yet for the next OPEC / non OPEC meeting may also be powering Brent

*Razorsedge, send my regards to Sotolo and remind him of my view that the price of gold is also inversely related to the trade-weighted dollar exchange rate

Don't know if the oil price rise is related to the cancelling / postponement of the recent OPEC meeting. I suppose it depends on the reasons for this happening.
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/6483.htm

I didn't know what a mud volcano is so I looked it up
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/mud-volcano

OPEC are still talking

https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/6482.htm

I can't argue with anything in your last post CC, but I think most people posting here already understand we are still climbing out of a cashflow crisis brought about by the pandemic and that investment will be slow without bringing partners in.

The share remains fairly low debt and is clearly currently profitable, but there is still a mess to clear up. Clive's slippery language is also nothing new. I prefer KK's rather more optimistic take on the situation, but we will probably have to wait until H1 feedback to find out more about the true situation

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/ahead-talks-opec-forecasts-point-oil-supply-deficit-august-2021-06-28/