Member Info for uncertain

KK I think the trebling of the workforce is due to bringing a service company in house. My assumption with the $0.7m bank balance in H1 is that they have been using cashflow to pay down debts when they have been able to. The other questions you ask need an answer.

nudging!!

sshh.... Casp is sleeping

Meanwhile Brent is nuding up towards $76. On a straight extrapolation Brent could reach $100 by the end of the year, although I think OPEC quotas would go up well before then.

Tomorrow's Thursday

Tucson, I apologise for my presumption. Since you have resurrected the idea, is the £1 party being held in your house?

A few months ago, in my rampy way, I suggested 5-6p was possible in July. Now it doesn't look so rampy!

Last we heard I think they were getting $12.4 locally

Well that is still an algorithm, just an unbelievably simple and stupid one!

I think what most of us do here is exchange useful information and analysis and attempt to keep each others spirits up during the long wait for news. Pumpedanddumped.com is unable to distinguish this kind of behaviour from the genuine ramper poster.

On the other hand I do believe that the sp will rise!

I come in at a creditable 5th, just ahead of Mr. Cautious. I'm not sure how their algorithm works, but Mr. Cautious is one of the least rampy posters on here!

KK you've got to do better. You're only 9th

From the february RNS

we are therefore pleased to report an increase both the overall production we are allowed to sell in February 2021 and an increase in the proportion of that may be sold by reference to export rather than domestic prices.

We have three major events coming up in the next few weeks: Full Year Accounts; Q2 output; and the OPEC ministers meeting on July 1st. The latter will respond to the rapidly rising oil price and make decisions about quotas. Recent RNSs have made reference to the amount CASP are allowed to export and also produce. The Yelemes export licence and regulation of the MJF expansion may partly depend on quota relaxations.

Agreed Divermike, the rising price of Brent will only get us so far, and what is needed is increased output. However the rise in price helps cashflow which in turn allows more drilling. I am hopeful that the exploitation of the MJF field will start to deliver soon. I am not knowledgeable about the Russian wells

Brent has powered through $74 overnight.

Somm, I think you and KK are saying much the same. 2020 FY results will be C**P, but 2021 will have turned this situation around. You want the good info to come later so that you can buy in at a lower price after the FY results. I think that's the only difference.

"Watch and learn" is not a helpful way of putting it, particularly when you can't spell write downs right

My land is 15m wide and doesn't have a stream. Cuts down on the gardening

Not into golf or fishing KK, but give me castles and a dram any day. We went to the core tasting at Lochranza. The 21 year old was very good indeed, and I took home a limited edition "Licensed to Distill"

I agree that with 4 deep wells @1500 bopd we would be well over 25p but it would be on the basis of more to come, not net profits and a P/E of 10 which is what I use. The P/E would shoot up well above that of course because more would be expected. The 25-30p range would apply to an MJF output in that range because more would not be expected from MJF

The oil price rise trend line is remakably linear since last spring. There have been minor fluctuations with infection rates and vaccination rates but the overall trend is very consistent. The question is - what would stop it. Forward purchases now are for the early autumn and prices usually rise into the northern hemisphere winter. I would say $90 by the end of the year. Mind you I have been drinking a little of the whiskey I brought back from Arran.

I am back from my holiday with my dodgy spreadsheet! 4 deep wells at 1500 bopd each on top of our exsiting output would put us in the 25-30p range IMO but KK is right to say that the hype can kick in at this stage, and we could well see it go higher.

NAV?? NPV??? No my spreadsheet really isn't that sophisticated!

When the accounts for last year and the output for Q2 become available in June/July the market will be in a position to assess the situation and I think this will result in a reappraisal of the share price. Upwards hopefully.

As Tony says we have the drills and we can get ahead with MJF. Brent is back in profitable territory and the export % is at least 60%. The Yelemes export licence could well come in Q3. No doubt they will also poke around in the deeps again, but I think a partner may be necessary for success there.

I'm off on holiday for a couple of weeks now (in the UK!) and expect things to start moving soon after I get back. I will try not to look at the sp while I am away! GLALTH