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There is no doubt that at current prices for oil then CASP is profitable. What we don't know until we see the accounts is any debts which might have accrued last year, although we do know that as they got licenced for export they switched from being paid in advance to being paid in arrears which . It was extremely bad luck that this more or less coincided with the pandemic price crash. They were paying back domestic traders in oil at one point.

They may still have some cashflow issues but going forward they do not have profitability issues

The MMs are superspreaders this morning which suggests they on't have a clue what's going on either

If you were a good friend of the board and perhaps did them a favour or two during the pandemic crisis, then perhaps, with some local knowledge of good times to come at CASP in the near future, you might ask to receive payment in this form?

Whatever the explanation, the MMs have put the ask up this morning

The RNS is available at CASP's website and consists of the issue of just over 3 million shares at 2.35 in satisfaction of a debt.
This works out at about £71,000. While this is dilution it is tiny in scale. The name of the company concerned is not disclosed

The question is why such small debt needed to be settled in this way

I haven't a clue how that was relevant to my post CC, but let's move on.

It will be interesting to see what happens when the US market opens today. There is a chance that Brent might go above above $70 based on the US problem, which would be psychologically important. The price might well come back down once the problem is sorted, but having been breached once would make it easier to do again.

I always asuumed they were wind ups of some kind or another. Those of us who have been here a little while remember your opinion changed with the wind and so always take your posts with a pinch of salt.

A shame really, as you understand the share reasonably well and often make useful comments.

ransomware hack appears to be increasing Brent prices as the US markets open today. The pipeline remains shut down and road transport cannot meet demand, so its acting like a restriction of supply.

This may well be temporary of course

After stalling a little in February and March, the graph for Brent looks determinedly upwards over the last month.

The accounts are likely to be very poor, but then that is why the share price is so low.

About time the sp started looking to the future and stopped looking at the recent past IMO
Get the accounts out of the way, find out what the damage was, and move on.

refine my model

Hi Tucson, Badgernator. I forgot to adjust the domestic price up. I make our current sp 3.2p with domestic at $12, and 4.5p with Yelemes and MJF pushing us up to 1800 bopd. My spreadsheet is far from perfect and i forgot to put the usual health warning on. 2300 bopd ( easily possible this year) would get us back to 6p IMO. All estimates have nothing in the future priced in

I am waiting for the accounts this month to get a better angle on costs and domestic taxes which have been a little difficult to interpret. I should really put in a range, but have given my lowest most conservative estimate to avoid being accused of ramping. The top of my range of estimates would agree with you Tucson.

We should have more info this month and then I can

I think we are now about 20-25% underpriced for current Brent and output level.

At $70 with domestic at $7 and Yelemes back producing 300 bopd plus another conservative 100 bopd for an extra MJF well, I would put us over 4p. We don't need deeps or the boat to bag here by the summer IMO.

Objectively, 70 is just another number, but I think if Brent goes above $70 it could be psychologically important for the market. For that reason, I think the market may hesitate a little before breaching it. Perhaps next week?

If it does go through, it may move up quite quickly beyond that.

pushing up towards $69 today. All good news for CASP cashflow.

is having another good run today - up at $68.60 as I post. It had a pop at $68 a few days ago and then fell back to $65. The overall trendline appears still to be upwards.

Egypt doesn't seem much better than Kazakhstan CC. UOG seem quite similar in having much more potential than output. Their account presentation is much better, but I'm hoping for an improvement from CASP on that score as they move to the new accounting basis.

Fido, the question then is, does your friend have much oil knowledge!

Some good common sense there CC. I think 2020 was survival and the first half of 2021 is getting back on top of things with the help of the oil price recovery. I am not knowledgeable about deep well fracking. Perhaps Fido and Rocky can help us out there with the depth of their technical knowledge

Hopefully we will have a good summer. I remain cautiously optimistic as I believe almost nothing is priced in.

I think most LTHs are under water here which can make us a little grumpy. However, I still maintain that we should see some progress from here. Currently the sp drifts down between RNSs perhaps because there are relatively few new buyers. My view is that we should receive some good news by July, and quite possibly before then.

Thanks for your comments Tony.