RE: Nothing in August2 Aug 2021 22:08
Okehurst1,
Markets, I don't have enough knowledge to have a feel of what markets are where. All I can do is take lead from what ODX is saying on the matter, plus wider news items. The news piece I posted a couple of days suggests that ODX will get approval as part of a process of moving away from free tests to the private sector. I have no idea whether that's just speculation, a publicly acknowledged path, or something in between. ODX is holding out the suggestion that it might be selected for HMG, althought to be fair they say that it will be eligble for selection.
If you go back 5 months, then it appears that it was widely felt that Mologic was the test of choice (not just ODX, Mologic too). So you could say that with the ODX antigen test apparently removing the issue that was causing PD to fail it, and with the approval being a "desktop" approval, then an ODX ce-approved self-test should be a shoe in. But if we have learned anything, its that this whole testing shennigans is very fluid, whats happening this month might not be happening next month or in 2months time, and it is far from transparent.
I also wonder whether ODX will be competing against Mologic in certain markets. I take on board that the buyout by gates et al might signal a move by Mologic/GAD to soley target 3rd world, given the bona fides of the new owners. But it certainly has not been announced. And if there is competition, it'll be ODX vs high profile Gates backed company, with ODX also paying a small royalty to Mologic. And Mologic doesn't need to make money.
In terms of FDA EUA approval, that's for the mologic test. So if ODX has any hope of piggybacking on that, it has to be the exact same test, the one initially TTed.. I feel (gut feeling) it's unlikely that the FDA will simply see the revised one as a Mologic+ and allow it to subsume the approval of the mologic test. And anyhow, i don't share the view that many here share that FDA EUA means immediate massive sales. I've posted the link a few times that shows there are 25 or so LFD that have FDA EUA, and of those 8 have home-use approval. Mologic's submission is for professional use.
In all the above, once approval is gotten, ODX still have to get distributors and customers. it takes a bit of time (see how long ABDX is working to get RTC sales).
Given everything I've said above, I think the single most important development that can immediately change fortunes is an announcement of a HMG test. If everything is as it appears, in HMG, ODX have a single customer who will immedately take at least 50% of their weekly capacity. I think it is a reasonable estimate to say that of the 2M capacity, HMG machinery is 1M. If the quickest path to that is someone elses test, then we should not be hung up on it being the ODX test.
ODX needs that announcement
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