RE: Antibody24 Jul 2021 14:42
Took a quick look at the Thriva redacted contract.
https://atamis-1928.cloudforce.com/sfc/p/#0O000000rwim/a/4J000000QFuh/xNrDI1AdChq3YAdDpRA23vHB0amNyHVtJraCxfQxoRc
Page 70 shows a flow diagram of the preferred end-to-end system and shows that the testing takes place after the sample is returned by the individual.
Page 88 says the test must be quantitative or semi-quantitative.
As I've stated for quite some time, there appears to be no appetite for volume quantities of binary yes/no antibody test in the uk. If you want to monitor drop-off off antibodies in vaccinated people, you need to know what vaccines they had, how long since the last one, and what the level of antibodies is. Simply getting a "yes there are antibodies" doesn't tell you much.
I note starting at timestamp 33 minutes of the presentation CK indicates that the original usage case for the antibody test was to identify people that had had covid-19, which of course it was perfect for at the time.
"Their focus really then became on identifying people that have the infection as opposed to people that have had it"
(their in this context is uk gov).
So in a country that had no vaccination, a "yes/no" would tell you anyone that's had covid. A year later in the uk, in it won't tell you who has had covid-19, as the vast majority of people displaying antibodies will be from being vaccinated.
he also said "clearly the uk is not a market where we will see a hugh amount of revenues for the reasons i've already given"
but went on to say:
"7 or 8 tier 1 countries that we are targeting.....in terms of near term there are probably 3 countries that we are waiting on final registrations go thru...there is expectation that the demand will come and it will be signficant demand from these countries from what we have been lead to beleive....... "we obviously continue to manufacture in quarter 1 that we've sold to abingdon, and the expectation is that those tests will be used in the very near term". So some manufacturing in Q1, with the product going to ABDX. Interesting to learn for the first time that ODX sells their product to ABDX, even though at this time ABDX has no sales outlet. We do know that whatever ODX gives them requires some finishing, before its complete. One wonders what the per-unit monetary agreement is between ABDX and ODX.
The above and further commentary from him in the presentation makes it clear that the target market is countries that are not mass vaccinating, either as policy or due to lack of money/vaccines. So the usage case is as originally designed, to detect people that have had covid in an unvaccinated commuity.
I'd take from CKs presentation on the matter, that there is little point in watching bidstat for big antibody contracts, as he's indicated that it's unlikely that they will involve LFD. You can also then extrapolate that to other well vacinnated countries. He also failed to mention ANYTHING relating to mass post-vaccination sur
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