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Agree Martyh that’s the most conservative estimates with pandemic becoming endemic in 2022 commodity prices could go through the roof, as per the presentation each +1$ per barrel adds $2.5m in free cash flow per year. Also half of our ebitda and revenue is associated with pipeline revenue which is resilient from oil price shocks so we have cashflow protection so we get 100% benefits of the upside but only 50% of the downside risk, not sure any O&G company which such ebitda protection as most are 100% tied to the price of oil, I can see why Andrew likes production with pipeline assets now…….. as I said if we don’t see full value on re-list a lot of side line money will come in and fair value will be adjusted by the market quite quickly…….. wouldn’t surprise me to see huge volume on the buy side should it still offers an NPV10 discount on SP………..

Looks like strong base would be really surprised if we don’t open strong I see from slide 11 that they have a Niger credit revolving facility for 10.5bn West African franc which converts to roughly £13.5m sterling pounds revolving credit my guess is that niger drilling programmes will be kicked of from this facilities to kick of operations and than once progressing through initial production we will secure a long term loan after. Seems like Niger financing sorted to kick things of at least

Agreed MCB we are producing nearly 3/4 of tullow’s production with nearly 3 times less debt and double the reserves surely we should at least match it and eventually beat it by miles eventually………..

Don’t think it’s in anyones interest to deny nicetomichu these deals are done with ministers who are part of the dialogue from the get go you have to remember that it’s the ministers who mediated the esso chad employee disputes, consent is just formality. It would seem illogical to undo do their own work and in no one’s interest especially as there was significant downtime in production do to strike why would they risk all that and go through the circus once more

TLW (Tullow)
Market Cap - £650m
Shares in issue - 1,432m
Net Debt - $2.3bn circa (£1.75bn)
Production - 61,230 boepd average (2021)

SAVE (Savannah Energy)
Market cap - £192m (at suspension)
Shares in issue – 996m
Net Debt - $369.4m circa (£280m) – (as at 30 June 2021) + Exxon / Petronas debt estimate $432m circa (£320m) = Total net debt roughly £600m
Production - 22 Kboepd (Nigeria production per October update) + Exxon / Petronas production 22.5K = Total production 44,500 boepd.

We will be producing about 77% of Tallow’s current production level (44500 / 61230 = 72.67% with 2.69x less leverage / debt = (1750 / 660 ) = 2.9x
If you were to take Tullow market cap of £650m multiply by the debt leverage ratio of 2.9 as mentioned above that will give us a market cap of £1.885b and if we discount back as we are producing 72.67% of Tullow production £1.885bn x 72.6% = £1.369bn, even if you discount back further 50% i.e 1.369bn / 2 = 685m Circa
685m market cap / 1,250,000,000 = 0.548 or 54.8p

Also worth remembering, I don’t believe Tullow have their own pipeline assets like we do so that’s an additional premium I would like to think
Reserves comparison with Tullow below:
Reserves definition
These reserve categories are totaled up by the measures 1P, 2P, and 3P, which are inclusive of all reserves types:
"1P reserves" = proven reserves (both proved developed reserves + proved undeveloped reserves).
"2P reserves" = 1P (proven reserves) + probable reserves, hence "proved AND probable."[2]
"3P reserves" = the sum of 2P (proven reserves + probable reserves) + possible reserves, all 3Ps "proven AND probable AND possible."[3][4][5]

1P + 2P Resreves Net
Savannah 1p (130.8) + 2P (183.1) = 313.9 MMboe vs Tullow 1P/”P (234.4) =
313.9 / 234.4 = 1.34 Savannah has 34% more proven producible reserves

Plus we have additional contingent 2C reserves of 176MMboe which tullow don’t have so brings our total as follows
313.9 + 176 = 489.9 MMboe Savannah / 234.4 Tullow = 2.09 x more reserves to factor into market cap as well………………….
So if the market was to value us against our peers I would say that if they under price us the big boys will quickly see the value disconnect and add more certainly this is my metric of comparison and I will use it to add more if they under price the re-listing……………

Duster stop spreading fear have you even read the rns properly there is a section on ministerial consent it takes 60 days upon Notification and the Notification would have gone to the minister a few weeks back probably when we signed the SPA so 60 days is Mid Feb and if there is no challenge or grant then it's automatically given and binding.

7. Ministerial Consent

Ministerial Consent for each of the Exxon Acquisition and the PETRONAS Acquisition is required prior to Completion. The Minister has 60 days following notification to grant or deny consent, following which, consent is deemed to have been given. EEPCI, in respect of the Exxon Acquisition, and PC Chad, in respect of the PETRONAS Acquisition, have each provided notification to the Minister seeking Ministerial Consent.

Agreed MCB, the market will have to not just price the production but also the reserves which means I see 1 of 2 things happening

1) if the market under prices then a lot of the big boys / funds / institutional money may pour in and create a quick rally towards fair value

2) the market prices in fair value from the get go…….

Thanks warno that’s helpful to know, just wanted to double check with someone else, yep agreed as long as it betters 19.35 i short term I don’t mind obviously I would like to see higher but we will let the market decide what premium we deserve, I think the admission document could drive further interest if it’s well written and if we see the wider plan on Niger and perhaps if it touches on the wider operation strategy and potentially still being on the lookout for additional assets then we could see the market decide the premium in the trading hours as supposed to it being priced in on open. I hope AK has a wider comms strategy and also he is able to articulate tough questions to PI on the investor call at 9.30

It would be interesting to see if where we open a question for the wider group given the raise is at the closing price is it fair to say with 100% certainty that we will open higher than the closing price, or could we open flat I appreciate the wider groups thoughts on this as I haven’t got much experience of such transactions on one hand we have acquired a cash generative lucrative asset and on the other we have a raised at a closing price in June and expert on here that can say we will open higher than 19.35p,m for certain ignoring any premium is that a guaranteed ?

We are already earning the revenue receipts and they would be paid to us even without the ministerial sign off this is just paperwork to set it stone.

They may have certain restrictions attached to the new institutional holders so sticky hands would be nice

Duster give it a rest it can still do a 2 bag from here the price has risen on O&G companies since suspension we are to still price in that from 19.35 since Suspension that’s alone would have taken us to 30p and then add this so 50-60p easily possible

It depends at what multiples the market views this deal if for instance we get a market cap of £750-800m on re-list then divide that by 1250m shares would give us just about 60p which is still x3 on suspension price. However if the market values it at more discount then I would assume a market cap of between £500-600m on re-list which would give us a sp of 40-50p perhaps just x2 or 2.5………. Again not a bad return and a brilliant base to build of perhaps more acquisitions in Q1 2022……..

Anyone brave enough to predict the re-list price definitely under 50p that’s for sure……. Agadem 89p seems like a pipe dream by the end of January unless they deliver a few more acquisitions like Tunisia or Sudan but even then that would require additional placings seems like 35p re-list seems more reasonable at this stage well at least my average is 13p so I can’t complain but certainly not going to get the multiples that I envisioned

Not ideal but not the worst, I think 19.35 made sense and I can see why it gives an opportunity for the existing institutional holders to average down. Intriguingly I think that the placing would have already been allocated to institutions and hence don’t think PI will get in

You seem confident this time round dusty…………….

If it doesn’t come by the 31st we should get another rns informing us of the delay hopefully that keeps duster happy…………… ;)

I do also concur slightly warno, however the window of opportunities / cycle don’t come around that often so it’s a fine balance I suppose it will depend on how much is driven by Vitol and what there plans are but it does seem to me that want to get to at least 100k Bopd through additional acquisitions as quickly as possible, and then optimise these assets which could take us to 150k+ Bopd………. Like I said it’s all very interesting and the 2022 story is definitely quite intriguing both from the company perspective but also from the Macro perspective…… I for one think that if oil price sustains $80 and goes higher. The rate of divestment from some of the majors my start to slow down as they might just want to hang on to those assets if they are throwing off material cash at higher oil prices or they would be for sale at material higher prices…….. I for one definitely would like the Tunisian assets especially if we could also get ENI renewable portfolio as I think that would give us a bit of diversification and potential entry into the renewable energy space

Sorry forgot to post the link to my last post

https://www.lankabusinessnews.com/u-s-africa-committee-to-host-a-petroleum-minister-puot-kang-chol-in-washington-d-c-to-discuss-opportunities-for-u-s-investors-in-south-sudans-oil-sector-and-energy-transition/

South Sudan still could be attractive seems like the south Sudanese government are keen for new investment / players if we can successfully grab hold of the Petronas assets that would be a prudent move before other investors pile into the region driving up the price…………… as mentioned before these regions always have challenges but one thing for certain is turmoil or not these governments need the oil revenues and form a vital part of how they can run the country. There reliance on oil coffers is far too much that they try to market and attract new investment and I am sure they would also provide some protection to infrastructure assets in order to protect oil production as BAU regardless of whatelse is happening in the region politically. I still feel that we should snap up South Sudan assets as I am particularly keen on proving a gateway into Kenya which i am particularly fond off and grew up there, we could then also potentially partner with tallow in the Kenya project to bring into production.