Member Info for troubledseller

What opportunities there at times like these...... The baby is being thrown out with the bath water. Some companies will not be impacted by the new Covid variant, some will thrive. DYOR and buy them while you can. Keep no cash! YOLO.

Agree with your observations NewKOTB something does not smell right. With the positives about to kick in SQZ monthly cash build will be phenomenal come Jan 2022 especially with these commodity prices. Somebody will be/is lining up this cash cow for sure. I hope your fanciful idea of multi PE bidders comes to pass and fair value is achieved for all loyal LTH.

Well done Muckle. Debating whether to do similar myself largely for the reasons you have just highlighted. Lacking some conviction as SQZ constitute about 80% of my portfolio, Its stupidly skewed already so I suppose another couple of thousand shares is neither here no there, no guts no glory.

Some voices of sense and reason here:
RELLIM "SQZ's fundamentals haven't changed".
SASA43 "what 2022 will look like is much more important and exciting, of course, with everything coming together in a climate of such high oil & gas prices. Everything to play for here..."

The drop is just a bump in the road, ok so we have lost some of the recent paper gains. Personally I am investor not a trader, lets see where this goes in the next 18 months. I will be holding my significant investment here till at least March 2023 when the value of BP deal will become evident to all. In the meantime we have plenty to look forward.
1 Dividends - Both annual and maybe "special".
2 Significant cash accumulating at the bank . Not much Capital Expenditure that I can identify.
3 The prospect of a buyout/takeover.
4 Extra Ordinary profits resulting from the volatile gas prices.
5 North and South Eigg prospects.
6 Probable move to the main market.

I am looking forward now to my relatively short 18 month journey, hopefully there will not be too many more bumps! GLA.

Maverick - Your bar and ambition must be much higher than mine, a 100% return in less than a year is not just good its freekin fantastic. Hoping that you are correct in terms of dividend returns to shareholders from SQZ, the "special" dividend discussed on this BB would be very welcome. Have not heard the word dividends mentioned in Andrew Austins agenda, it is all about capital growth as you say. I think that SQZ's progressive dividend policy will attract more investors especially if coupled with a move to the main market that has again been mooted here. Given the previous 2 points the shares will become more attractive to the wider investment market and fuel further capital growth. atb.

Muckle - Was not complaining nor having a go at our Bod. YTD 102% SQZ 167% KIST both absolutely outstanding investments however to date Kist ahead. They are clearly very different beasts operating in the same sector, our beast is very experienced and conservative as apposed to Kist which is clearly more aggressive and dynamic. Still think that the fundamentals are better with SQZ and why I remain heavily invested. atb.

Manio1 - Wish I had.....nearly purchased some Christmas time when they were below £2.00 they have been rising steadily since and are flying today. Thought that the fundamentals looked better with SQZ at the time, perhaps more ambitious and motivated Bod at Kist, no substitute for having your own skin in the game?

Newkotb

As you say possibilities and options abound for SQZ, it is all largely guesswork and supposition from us PI's. Hopefully Kate and Richie are sitting tight lipped because they covered by NDA's for the forthcoming sale, £3.37 would indeed do nicely, although that still gives a market cap of less than a billion leaving enough for the purchasers.

What we do know is that our commodity is trading at a premium now and will be for the next few months given the futures prices. The cash is accumulating at a rate of knots and we only have a small portion of our output hedged. We are certainly in a good place especially with Columbus soon to come online and the BP deal completing.

I too would like a sale, I am lousy at selling my investments hence my "troubled seller name", I never seem able able to let go. Therefore would really like the matter to be taken out of my hands, at the right price of course.....atb

The fag packet calculation of 1Billion + revenue next year look about right for me, only if gas prices hold at this level for a sustained period. This is against a current market cap of around £600 million. Clearly we are somewhat still somewhat undervalued....

Come 01/01/22 when the BP deal completes the Private Equity vultures circling will strike. I am sure that they will be structured outside the UK tax system nullifying not only a windfall tax but also corporation tax. Love it or hate it economics will prevail. atb

Newkotb

Thank you for your speedy response..... Less than 3 months to wait before the deal/purchase completes in any case, If there is any clause it will soon become irrelevant. We will see what happens in this regard post 01/01/22. atb

There has been much chatter/speculation on this board over possible mergers or takeovers of SQZ. Some including Newkotb think that Kist are a probable buyer but there are many Private Investment outfits that will be interested many have been identified on this board and also listed by the aforementioned.

The structure of the BKR deal with BP must surely have caveats regarding the sale of the assets before the deal completes on 01/01/22, is anybody out there aware of any such caveats/clauses in the purchase agreement? In all likelihood I think that any offer or takeover/merger would have to be announced post completion of the deal. Perhaps we should be expecting activity in this regard post Jan 2022...? Just my musing....atb.

How can the gas price be so volatile, our commodity is currently showing more volatility than bitcoin. If you take the view that this is simply market forces of supply and demand then you must assume that this situation will continue until we reach an equilibrium. Given the environmental movement and the pressure they have brought to bare to reduce global fossil consumption this has now has now ultimately restricted global supply. The result being the volatility we are seeing in the gas market today and in all likelihood oil in the near term.

This will I fear have severe knock on effects for businesses, society and all individuals. Inflation will be fuelled and for many in all societies there will be difficult choices to be made on how their income is to be spent. The COP26 summit will be interesting given the current backdrop.

Quite where this leaves Serica.... I think some kind of windfall tax is inevitable, however much this leaves you with a bad taste, take a little comfort in the that we currently have a blue clowns in government rather than the red clowns.

All in my own opinion blah blah....

NewKotb
Great research, once again thanks for sharing. So many positives and strategic possibilities for Sqz. Our industry certainly hitting the headlines with Serica now being seen in many investors headlights. True value will out. ATB.

Just made a further little top up, this is putting up my average a little. However given our commodity price and the futures prices it is difficult to see much of a downside , especially with the increased revenue 01/01/2022 and R3 and Columbus coming on stream. Hopefully will look back in 18 months time and wonder why I did not purchase more. gla.

Upomega - Good luck with your entry, I feel sure that it will be an off the wall abstract! atb

NewKOTB - Your attention to detail and posts are much appreciated by myself and others, thank you. Please keep up your great work. I too agree that Rhum 3 is critical and I think the disposal by GRG is not inconsequential but by strategic design, this has obviously been co-ordinated for some considerable time. Is whoever that is behind this also acquiring the IOC share of Rhum? Hence GRG's sale of shares. My hope is that Serica has somehow negotiated to acquire the IOC share. The elimination of GRG and Rhum3 news are strangely starting to dovetail. As I said theories and possibilities abound....aimo

NewKOTB - Think your point about private equity is possibly most pertinent given that GRG have sold approx 10% of their share in the company in the last few months and continue to reduce, we don't know where these shares have gone yet and why they are selling, I suspect it is something to do with the USA and Iran connection. These shares have not been sold on the open market, the maths does not work as some on this board have recognised. Allogie points out below the SP has also continued to rise while GRG have been liquidated. Something is afoot ! Theories and possibilities abound and keep us all entertained and interested, hopefully something left field coming that lifts our value. atb.

NewKOTB - Thank you for the link. Surely you would expect a very high degree of correlation because they are both selling the same commodity so the relative SP of both companies are loosely tracking this. Would be interesting to overlay the gas prices on the same chart although that would give an even longer link! Looking forward to seeing what plays out here, at least everything is positive and moving in the right direction for us all. atb

Dick - Thank you for your posts they are always a good read, informative, balanced and sometimes full of humour. One post on the SQZ board aimed at a particular individual is most memorable and still makes me smile today. After some research I have recently taken a small position here which I aim to develop as circumstances allow. Look forward to reading your further posts on the JOG journey. atb.

Wow..."Shiver me Timbers" those gas future price are amazing. Think we will be saying the same about our SP in the not too distant future. R3 and Columbus online and 100% BKR all imminent, when will the market react and factor all this in? Perhaps it will properly start when the Sept interims are reported. In the meantime an update on R3 would not go amiss.