Member Info for triumph1

That's all us investors have, speculation. I could say the same about everyone saying an 80 well field and 1000boepd wells will be announced. Is that not also speculation? Unsurprisingly however i see no red flags raised. I do see potential, but SP built on "potential" or as i more accurately refer to it as "expectation from a retail investor base", can be dangerous. I am merely making an educated guess at what will happen. I have no doubt in my mind that CEB will acquire an asset. I also know that CEB cannot afford a decent asset with $1m and wages don't pay themselves so a placing is required to fund assets. The size of dilution and value of assets is still up for debate. Will DW do one huge dilution to get it out the way, or little but often. Each have their own advantages and disadvantages. I personally would not be surprised to see an initial equity raise of c$5m.

Yes, i was just focusing on the dilutive effects. My example may have sounded a bit biased, my apologies. Of course the amount raised is added to the Mcap, so the discount the placees receive is also important and provides the investor with insight into what the (usually more knowledgeable) placee thinks about the company. I don't think i have ever seen a placing conducted above the SP and i don't think i ever will. Besides, why would a placee pay more than the current SP, they could just buy them from the open market cheaper. Back to CEB, its an interesting one but we all know the knee jerk reaction dilution has on the SP. I think most people here has come to terms with the fact that a placing is definitely needed to purchase and fund any assets. With $1m in the bank, and the size of the assets they talk about the only logical conclusion i can come to is a significant amount of capital is required to purchase this asset or acquire any meaningful ownership through a JV. I just cant help but see a cheaper SP than today's when news is announced. Remember also, 66m shares will be issued immediately to corsair, half in shares and half in options at 0.4p on the acquisition of the first concession acquired, second concession and when boepd exceeds 400 as per 5th june RNS.

It may be for good purposes, but in the short term is irrelevant due to conservation of value, and the share price will adjust as such. Good asset news may increase company empirical value, but if a big placing was done (which i strongly suspect), in the short term the SP will decline and present a good buying opportunity post suspension. Worked example: Company A has 100m shares in issue and an Mcap of £1m, thus each share is worth 1p. Now i raise equity by conducting a placing. I issue 100m shares. The value of the company has not changed! Using conservation of value, the share price must half to keep the Mcap at £1m as the value of the company has not changed. The company will now have 200m shares free float and an Mcap of 1m thus the SP after the placing will be 0.5p, a 50% reduction. Of course the underwriters will be calculating this and basing their desired placement price on this calculation. Or put it another way, the company will have to effectively double the value of the company to keep the SP the same. If this was issued with good news, you have to determine the value of the good news and recalculate the Mcap to determine SP movement. Anyway, the moral of the story is to determine your short term trade, you have to estimate how much the company will be paying for any assets and the value of the assets purchased. In the oil industry, this is very difficult to do in practice as there are so many variables as opposed to product contract values which is a value in black and white. As an investor, company worth in terms of Mcap is not my concern, the SP however is. Lets see if DW dilutes the bejesus out of his investors just like JN did over at XTR. Of course a sizable placing will be required to kick off any asset purchases.

Absolutely no info on how these potential wells will be funded and how much they cost. DW throwing in a little reminder about cash reserves of only $1m. A bit disappointing. Dilution is surely on the cards to fund this!

Those assets sound great, but you sure as hell aint gonna be able to pay them with mentos! Does anyone here honestly think such assets will come cheap. If these assets are on the table, it can only mean one thing....huge dilution to fund these as they are announced, and i am willing to bet an issue of equity will be announced along with any new asset. Anyone who says otherwise are seriously deluded thinking <£1m could buy such assets. Who in their right mind would give away such assets for pennies? Quality assets cost remember.

locked in now...£9m market cap is insane for a company with zero assets. This is the dictionary definition of a sentiment pumped stock, purely valued on expectation. Way too risky for me personally, I've seen it end in tears so many times before. They better deliver some good assets without ridiculous dilution or this will faster than a fat man who sat down too fast. Huge expectations are resting on this announcement. If they fail to deliver, expect a huge discount on today's price.

Haha yeah i wish. I could be wrong and perhaps a PI with deep pockets saw an opportunity, but my guess would be somthing to do with this new nomad & joint broker. Looks like a decent company to be fair...got a lot of things going on. Perhaps they are taking on too much as they seem to be a little slow in developing things perhaps, but nethertheless always good to diversify, especially in the times we have seen over the past 2-3 years with miners.

Hmm they look like buys to me. These transactions seem to coincide around the time of the appointment of the new advisor/joint broker, so are perhaps taking a position in the company for a trade. It is common for nomad's to hold shares in the company they advise. Perhaps they see an opportunity for a quick 10%, or perhaps a bit longer.

Unlikely as they look like they have the cash, but NOMAD's usually take a position in the company they advise. That would be my guess....numis, or associated affiliates playing around with a few shares.

aaahhh knew a speeding ticket was coming. Fascinating to see the effect of the tiniest buys and sells have on a stock with a very small float though