Member Info for triumph1

I really hope the new BOD can turn this company around. They have had a very bad 3 years, its just been one thing after another with no let up. Challenges remain ahead.

In terms of risk at this level, there is very little. £36m Mcap with at least this much in the bank and with virtually zero debt (<$1m).

Whatamess, a couple of questions...

1) Would you like to explain to us what you mean by IAG having liquidity issues? I am assuming that you can read balance sheets or have I assumed too much, which judging by your comments certainly could be the case? Because to us that can read, IAG look pretty darn liquid. We have enough cash to last us for at least 12 months running zero operations.... FACT! Cashburn is 100m per week so I will let you do the maths. Also FYI every single one of IAG owned airlines were profitable. And you actually compared lufthansa which need a bailout equal to their mcap to survive compared to IAG? You clearly have no clue what you are talking about so I suggest you stop embarrassing yourself.

2) You hate dividends and bailouts....fair point. So then why the fcuk are you not sh"ting on the easyjet board considering they have just recently paid out 174m in dividends and secured £600m in taxpayer money, whereas IAG scrapped the dividend and has not taken a penny in bailout and have actively lobbied AGAINST them, only opting to use the furlough scheme in which every single business is entitled to? Its bizarre you are cussing one of the better capitalised airlines.

We all know why you are really here, otherwise why else would you be here. You clearly know naf all about IAG and just another short term trader who wants a cheaper entry. This isn't one of your crappy aim shares you can manipulate like the other crap you hold. Mabye it's a bit of a culture shock? You are not fooling anyone with baseless predictions backed by two lines of sh"t like clearly indicating you dont know what you are talking about like the other clowns on here.

I have absolutely no issues with alternate opinions that are logical, make sense and are backed by fact. I welcome them. But your opinions, to be Frank, are of little value to anyone considering; a) you are not long or short here and clearly know jack about IAG, and b) you are a short term trader so your opinions on what will happen next week, us that are here for an airline recovery play dont give two hoots about next weeks share price.

The word of the day today.....Contango.

There is more to the drop in WTI than meets the eye today, and dig a little deeper into the headline drop it is clear to see.

We will be rolling over contracts tomorrow, from May to June. As the May contract expires, it naturally diverges to the physical spot price of the underlying asset so there is no (or little) arbitrage opportunities in the physical market. Remember, WTI has been physically trading far below 15 bucks now for a long time (in the case of WY Asp sour, much much lower).

The 20% drop in may contracts tells us a few things about the state of the market in terms of storage. No one wants to hold may contracts to expiry and take physical delivery as there is simply no storage so we have a lot of sellers for the may moving to the front month June because if they hold and allow it to roll over, they will pay a massive $10 premium (gap between contracts).

Check out brent and outer month future curve for a clearer picture. WTI is in the dumps right now as USA have a serious storage problem. Also, the Texan regulators could announce as early as tomorrow a production cap on their patch, which would start a chain reaction across other states. There is no coincidence that state regulators chose to announce this as early as tomorrow as it coincides nicely with the beginning of June contract for maximum effect.

GLA

Ohh wow LTP has made 10%. I guess a stopped clock is right twice a day right? Well you sure put me in my place with your trading prowess hahaha. Warren buffet, you better watch out, termite is about. Do you have any comments on the fact that you lost a 50% rise in carnival and a 30% rise here? Thought not. The 'carnival' continues hahaha.

I'll be expecting to see your massive short for IAG on short tracker then will I along with your new buddy whatamess; although by the look of INTA, he is in a bit-of-a-mess and has even less than you to play with now....what a mess indeed haha. With confidence like that, I would put every penny I could muster to short a stock. No? Didnt think so.

I'll be checking in for more laughs as IAG and others pull further away from your entry point. GL to those genuine holders. Over and out.

JDW are one of those businesses that will thrive in a depression. JDW clientele generally don't care about the moral aspects of the CEO and his treatment of staff as the offering is simply too cheap and with no real alternative in terms of value for money, therefore all this talk of boycotting; i cant see it happening. Those who shout boycott on twatter are those who rarely/never frequent a weatherspoons and would rather pay for a poncey £6 pint(in London). Fortunately for weatherspoons, these are in the minority and when choosing between a £6 pint or a £2 pint especially considering a recession....morals tend to go out the window. We will see how many will want to pay £6 with mass unemployment. If anything, weatherspoons set to benefit from a downturn like Aldi & Lidl have.

A £2 pint will be sold whatever the economic weather, and the regulars will not stop going to their local no matter what. It is ingrained in British culture virus or no virus. The first thing people will do before they even visit their kids will be to go down the pub. Sure it may take a few months to get back to pre-virus levels, but i am sure they will get there.

In terms of debt, JDW are a growth stock and this has come at a bad time for them, whereas others such as Marsden were divesting, taking less profitable pubs off the book and reducing debt so look much better on this front. The £800m debt is the only concern i can see but i cant see Tim doing an equity raise despite the chatter in the square mile. Net debt- to- EBIDTA is 3.54x which is high and will of course get higher, but if Mr Martin can defer some of the debt and push it out, and i am sure he can on the leases, things should turn out to be fine here.

I currently have no position here and out of respect for current holders, i wont mention a target price. But i am certainly keeping an eye on this one.

Longtermprat wanting airtime again I see. Calling carnival at 200p only to have it bottom at 600p and boom up 50% and hold its gains. Calling IAG at 100p when it has been holding near 20% gains off its lows of 200p, and would rather trade banks and one of the worst run, debt ridden and shi-ttest airlines in the world, American Airlines which would need a bailout to print off the chapter 11 bankruptcy papers that they are a stones-throw away from hahaha need i say more?

Put your money where your mouth is and short carnival and IAG as you are so confident of your position and prove it for all of us to see, i dare you......hahaha yeah right, like hell you will. Money talks, bullsh't runs the marathon now hit the road! It really shows the caliber of prat we are dealing with here and has about as much stock insight as a termite. Must be still bitter on the huge losses made previously (couldn't have happened to a better person), continues to lose money on this dip and cant bear to see others do well and make money. Grow the f up!

The only people who are even bigger prats than this A1 clown are those who actually take this posters advice. The amount you would have lost following this posters views are eye watering.

IAG is without doubt one of the best run and well capitalized airlines out there, with all operations previously running at a good profit and will continue to do so in the long run. IAG will be the last man standing and the first to recover; no doubt about it, and only stand to benefit from weak hands folding all around them. IAG is the only airline stock i would touch to profit from the airline recovery play....and they will recover. The only reason this poster and others are here (or it may be that they are genuinely thick which could certainly be the case choosing AAL over IAG) is because they know this and missed the bottom. Its a good thing that we are seeing more and more of these posters here as it further endorses the quality of IAG.

In the meantime, sit back and enjoy the 'carnival'. We have 'high flying', class act clowns on here for our very own inflight entertainment whilst we all make money trading/holding IAG.

If you say once more you are invested here, it might actually come true....its really comical.

You ain't fooling anybody. You will have to bite the bullet and buy back in Tuesday what you sold off on Thursday sharpish. Nothing you say or do will change the fact that premier oil as well as all the other oilers will rally off the back of these cuts. How much more will you have to pay? We will find out shortly.

The most powerful nations in the world are willing to do anything to raise the price of oil. Doesn't take a genius to work out which way oil will be going. If they are not satisfied with the market reaction later, they will simply do more to pump it up. Whether it is immoral, illegal, ect is irrelevant, oil is still gonna go up. The end of the oil price war will see some big players return back to the oilers as they have now been massively de risked.

Most shorts on medium/big oil are most definitely hedges. Premier oil being case and point.

Agreed big balls are required to short this over this weekend, particularly given the current price and weekend events. But i doubt traders here have short positions, they merely sold on Thursday to derisk/trade and perhaps hoping for a cheaper entry on Tuesday.

Regardless of opinion, we are now locked in/out at this price. Tuesday will be a big gap up or a big gap down,and there is nothing any of us can do about that now.

I have to agree with Mexico here. They have taken the initiative to hedge at some cost and risk. Other no OPEC members wanted to. Now they are reaping the benefits of their $50 hedge but OPEC are saying to cut?

Mexico must be asking themselves what was the point in the hedge in the first place if OPEC can just raise and lower prices at will. Why should they be punished for doing the smart thing? Mexico will quite rightly want some further concessions here.

A deal will still be done of course, but Mexico are not to blame here as they are the only ones who were smart.

Why is it that everyone else is finding oil in Alaska except 88e???

Another british firm finds 1.3bn barrels...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Small-Oil-Firm-Reports-Huge-Alaska-Oil-Discovery.amp.html

If a favorable opec+ deal is reached, I dont think it would be a huge stretch of the imagination to see shell at 1700, which is about 15% from where we are now. Considering the crazy swings we have all witnessed in the markets over the last 2 months, a 15% rally on an opec+ deal cutting 10mboe+ it is certainly possible. Conversely, the opposite is also true as Oilers have a certain amount of expectation priced in.

Of course then post opec+ deal, there is the whole issue of demand which would still weigh on any significant oil recovery. Cutting supply is certainly a good starter though and should see WTI firmly in the 30s.

It is concerning about the levels of debt being taken on by countries, but everyone are in the same boat. After this, I really hope Italy, Spain and portugal do the right thing and scrap the euro. They should have years ago!

Very little movement here until D-day on Thursday.

Opec+ deal, quick march to 1700+
Opec+ no deal, then retreat back to 1200s.

I am optimistic.
GLA

Bahahaha this is just one of the many clowns going around different BBs spreading doom for a cheaper entry price. A quick search through this idiots history says it all. Every "prediction made" has been horribly wrong. Carnival +50%, IAG +30%. Everyone is making big money except this fool. Its like watching someone trying to play tug of war with a steam train, truly hilarious.

You would think this poster would be a bit red faced and go back to the shadows. I wont block though, this poster is my new buy signal. Funny man indeed.

Who sold this morning at 210-215 hoping to get a cheeky few%?

Nice to see this close above 220.

Just to add to that, the UK government have explicitly said that a state bailout where they take an equity position will only happen if every other avenue has been exhausted.

Two points on this. first, the qataries have a 25% stake in IAG. They will be the first we tap for cash...and it certainly would not be in their interests for BA to fall in state hands. It is handy to have powerful shareholders on board.

2nd point. After all avenues have been exhausted and all other possible sources of financing dried up, for IAG that is at least 2 years down the line! Besides, if this went on for over 2 years, IAG at a fraction of 200p would be the least of our worries! There will be a civil war before then, with worldwide riots and looting on a scale humans have never known. It would be about survival at that point....for those of us who are left.

Some very unscrupulous characters across all boards stating baseless lows and chatting the brown stuff. I think one such idiot mentioned 100p?...lol. that would be an 85% decline from it's high. Not even Norwegian have declined that much and they are on the brink of existence. If things ever got that bad, I certainly wouldnt be buying....besides we would have more pressing concerns regarding all of us being unemployed and a black hole recession that point.

As of 1st march, we had £6.4bn (7.2bn euros) cash. Cash burn at fleet running 25% capacity whilst maintaining staff was $200m per week....but now capacity has been reduced to 10% and staff costs have now been significantly reduced. Given staff costs make up 40% of operating costs, plus given the fact that capacity was shut in further, being very conservative I would put cashburn at around £80-£100m per week.

Let's say £100m. So £400m per month. Our mcap is now 4bn. Therefore at present cashburn, it would take 6 months of nothing changing for our cash balance (forget credit facility) to reach the present market cap! Not even mentioning assets, that is just cash. Given the forward looking nature of the markets, let's say 3 months.

For now, 200p is the base. If there are signs this will go on for longer....we will head lower. But for now, we are priced in for 3-6 months lockdown.

If travel bans are lifted by the end of the summer, you could surely triple your money given 1 year. Double your money virtually instantly. Added potential bonus...beautiful virgin "slots", he said with a northern accent.

If one does the maths, the deal with no cap Is not a bad deal at all for a couple of reasons.

A) the average salary of these staff are only marginally over the government cap, therefore all staff can be retained at a minimal premium to government cap.

B) when things return to normal, they will save on re-hiring and will be able to resume operations much faster.

That doesnt look so bad to me!

62.5m shares*

Hundreds of millions of new shares??? Rubbish. They are issuing 64.5 million new shares at $8....approximately 10% of share float...and hence why the sp is hovering at around $8. Hardly massive dilution is it? Obviously priced in now. They are issuing more convertibles as opposed to equity. Keep up with the news and stop misleading.

But of course the debt load is now significant, although these are redeemable some way out.