Member Info for triumph1

Yikes. Poor timing indeed

Last 3 days action is a positive indicator that a bottom has been found. Widening buy/sell ratio and a low RSI point to a recovery on the table. Taken a small position at 210 earlier for a recovery play with scope to purchase more if necessary.

Still wary of the report outcome, but you cant ignore the last couple of days action in terms of a reversal at this level.

I have had very close ties to vietnam since I was a teenager and have a few connections that are very high up the political chain. The growth that the country has witnessed in the last decade is astonishing and can be physically seen. From roads being built servicing haiphong, a large port town in the north that links hanoi and many others, to the number of cars on the road increasing year on year. The middle class is growing at a rapid clip and are closing the gap fast with thailand.

Corruption in the upper echelons of government is still rampant unfortunately, but things are getting better. Companies are increasingly turning to vietnam from china, and covid had only accelerated this process, with the government eager to capitalise and welcome the west with open arms.

One to be involved with in the next decade!

Which is a good indicator of a bottom forming, but not out of the woods yet by any means. Any sort of news will tip the balance either side now, and the problem of equally high volume on buy and sell side persists, which imply traders are very much still in the driving seat and flip flopping intraday. Watch for the widening of volume gap turn buy side heavy which indicates investors are coming back.

Auction house have these going for 210 after hours today.

It is not shorters attacking this. It is the feckless traders who rinse and repeat for every 10p rise. You guys are your own worst enemy. Nothing wrong with doing that at all, but the lack of investors on thos stock is why it is so weak.

Boohoo has junk grade status now which means traders and scalpers will keep selling off on tiddly rises until proper sticky investors come back into play and hold. And this is NOT going to happen until there is further certainty and clarity. Sure, money is on the sidelines....but it is still early days into the event lifecycle.

You had your spike to 300p. Then was the time to buy and trade. The fashion in which it has plunged back down and completely retraced is very telling as to what is going on here.

Expect further weakness until this becomes investment grade again. At the moment it clearly is not.

It is very difficult to spin in and out intraday with such large amounts unless it is broken down or done in an auction, even with high volume which is why you rarely see such large intraday trades. A 1k buy or sell is very different to a £100k+ buy or sell as you effectively become a market maker for a short period of time. I presume the trader meant spreadbet in which case is extremely foolish and beyond mental....but kind of sums up market mentality these days.

I agree on some points you make about the JV. However you need to ask yourself where marston's would be if this never happened. No JV is perfect, especially ones under such extreme circumstance. Marston's had very little scope to negotiate given their situation prior of falling sales and climbing debt and serious risk of significant dilution to SH or default on credit.

I'm sure you cannot disagree that the JV was absolutely the right thing to do. Sure they didnt get the best deal but what do you expect given the situation.

As for a rights issue, there is no basis for this happening anytime soon and cant even be dignified as a rumour. Most investors are cognisant in understanding that companies have rights issues at some point in time, stating the obvious doesnt get you brownie points. They are awarded when you can be a little less vague and give us a time basis for such a rights issue. This year? This decade?

I can offer an arguement against a rights issue this year. Why would the directors not buy up the rights issue instead of buying on the open market unless they are mentally impaired? If a rights issue was not done in the last month when SP was materially higher, why would they do one now? Talk of a rights issue this year makes absolutely no sense.

Funny so much weight is put on a broker report when it aligns with ones interest. You will find many similarities between this board and analysts at major banks, some say buy and others say sell; the only difference being the level of knowledge and experience brought into the arguement from analysts either side whereas this board...not so much. That being said, both offer compelling and not so compelling arguements for and against. Mabye not saying much, but I like to think that my views are just as valid as any analyst at any major bank, having done this for many many years and having worked in finance. I'm sure others on here feel the same too. Anyone with half a brain can form a constructive arguement for or against here.

It is extremely difficult to free yourself from the gravity of confirmation bias however, but those who have been trading and investing for years know who to listen to and know who has a track record of being more right than wrong and knows how certain events tend to play out more often than not in terms of chart patterns and the life cycle of such events.

You should be asking yourself, based on the many variables and opinions out there, what are the common denominators and based on this, is boohoo statistically likely to increase or decrease in value T+1week, T+1month, T+1 year ect. However this question is totally irrelevant to gamblers as they are only interested in SP movements intraday or a day later and most are extremely inexperienced so will buy on the pump and sell on the dump.

This share is no longer investor grade until this is sorted. It is in the category of the traders/gamblers plaything, I.e junk. Anyone buying now are purely hoping for a quick buck and nothing more. Need proof? Too many already got suckered in on the pump and subsequent dump by the IIs last week. This only happens on what I categorise as junk investibility, I.e firmly in the hands of traders, gamblers, headless chickens ect.

For this to change, the entire supply chain needs to be fully unravelled, mapped out and audited. The impact on 3rd party retailers leaving in their drones needs to be fully assessed. Reputational damage is directly proportional to the length of time the board drag out or hinder/obfuscate this process. This is completely uninvestable to the level headed investor.

Every nook and cranny of their closet needs to have light shone upon it in order to be upgraded to investment grade again. And until this happens, the stock is going nowhere.

Until then, expect more wild swings. Happy trading/gambling

With a nice balance sheet. However it is no surprise this is where it is. National Express unfortunately have a lot of exposure to the USA, and with things getting progressively worse there with more and more states imposing further lockdown measures, it's hard to say when this could recover. The CEO departing certainly did not do the company any favours bailing on the SH along whit his stock too.

Certainly one to watch, but I cant help but think this could drift lower until things steady out in the USA

As good a time as any to start building a stake again. Below 40p was the target. PMO are not alone, the entire ftse250 has been weak as cats doodle, sentiment is very bearish but it will filp in an instant and many look very oversold now. Also looking at the charts, an educated guess as to the moment to begin stake building would be about now.

This saga has only just begun. Major retailers pulling out, celeb models wont touch with a barge pole through fear of blackening their name and we dont know if this is isolated or systemic. In fact, we dont know anything. Not a peep from the BOD except for a nonsense tweet.

Uncertainty, silent management, a very sensitive situation that was uncovered at the worst possible time and people fleeing in their droves as if the company has aids. should I buy? Hmm I think not.

This will have to have a 1 in front of the shareprice in order for this to be worth a punt.

This situation is just 1 notch up from an accounting scandal. Day traders can say wat they want, but this is a grave situation where difficult questions must be answered. 'Ethical' funds will be dumping as funds nor their clients will not want to be associated with a company that has any involvement with modern slavery, and has just given funds a perfect excuse to dump stock after a record run. Shorters are circling and smelling blood. A perfect storm for boohoo.

Not sure where this will land, but for now this can only go south until the board make some radical changes on the corporate governance front.

Ultimately, the onus is on boohoo to ensure that their materials are ethically sourced by monitoring and auditing the entire supply chain. If this process was done properly, discrepancies in output capacity of the supplier on record would have lead boohoo to conclude that they must be outsourcing. It Is not enough for boohoo to simply take what suppliers tell them without thorough vetting...this is not exactly a new thing and has happened many many times before with other companies, so audits of this nature should be second nature. Proper checks would have weeded out the rogue element so deserved to be punished based on this.

If banks took all mortgage applicants income details at face value without checking, the responsibility of any loss arising from default rightly lies with the bank. The same logic applies here and boohoo failed to realise what was happening. Now you have to ask yourself, is this an isolated incident or is it rife within the boohoo supply chain. Suppliers in this industry get very lazy when they know they are dealing with complacent companies who lack vetting processes, so I would be surprised if this was the only case.

I am not sure how people on here can defend boohoo by saying that it is not their fault. The buck ultimately stops with boohoo as it is their responsibility to ensure all materials are sourced from ethical and legal sources by regularly vetting and auditing all supply chains. Clearly boohoo foster a culture of see all say nothing and create an environment where this sort of behaviour is inevitable all in the name of being cheap and in volume. Is this the tip of the iceberg? I am willing to bet that this is not an isolated incident, and I am sure many spectators will be digging for more dirt like flies on shlte, and then you have the whistleblowers coming out of the woodwork.

Companies have been ruined over incidents like this, and are punished by the market harshly and deserve to be. Then you have a market made primarily of increasingly leftist millenials who are very aware of such issues and much more socially responsible than generations gone by and may decide to boycott boohoo.

To say that this is serious is an understatement. A failure of epic proportions by the company by failing to pick up on this and a PR nightmare that will be tough to come back from. Expect more pain in the coming days

Even more so than marston's and weatherspoons, although marstons are more diversified as they have their brewing arm, and weatherspoons have a very shrewd and shareholder orientated CEO. Sentiment for pubs and restaurants is clearly low at the moment with cases in the usa keeping coronavirus at the forefront of everyone's mind, and pockets of resurgence throughout europe. Sentiment can change on a dime, and a 20%+ day can come out of nowhere. This has dropped far too much now and well overdue a recovery.

Over the weekend, i noticed many brokers recalibrated some share risk profiles which is used to calculate margin requirements. MAB were deemed to be riskier, therefore the margin requirements to trade MAB are now higher than before. We could simply be seeing some traders having margin calls and forced to sell to align with new margin requirements. I have seen this on other shares before.

I will continue to top up on these massive dips as i did in IAG, MARS pre merger, HMSO at the height of their negativity and pessimism. You need balls to make money in this market, and go against the flow of negativity and this share is right up my personal investment strategy of distressed shares with low sentiment and p/e. I am convinced this will come good as did the aforementioned despite the BB trash you get on here who think they have an effect by creating an account for the sole purpose of "chatting breeze". As for a placing, it would be bizarre to conduct a placing now considering;

a) Optimal timing would have been back in april/may like weatherspoons did, so why do a placing after we have been considerably derisked in terms of getting back into operation ahead of schedule?
b) The company is far below book value. Not a reason per se, but since we have now resumed operations, we have been considerably de risked so look undervalued. Not an opportune time to conduct a placing.
c) The company made contingencies to commence operations as late as October without conducting a placing back when things were less uncertain. Things will only improve from here as we are operational.
d) Secured various RCF's and other financing. barring another lockdown, we should be able to avoid a placing assuming we follow germany's trajectory of a speedy sales ramp up.

The only way I can see a placing is if pubs and restaurants are required to lockdown again, or if the SP is significantly higher than now.

This morning. Dont get me wrong, I was relishing in the opportunity to buy in the 180s this morning, but it seems as though MAB are down much further than marston's and weatherspoons for no reason inparticular, and now seems like a sector arbratige opportunity. I am not one bit fazed by this price action. All sorts of wild and unfounded speculation on how pubs and bars will operate are flying around which is one of the reasons the sector has taken a dive, but this should sort itself out in the next month. Buying on the significant dips is where the money is being made in this market, so I will continue to do so.

Not surprising SP action at all today, we see it all the time. The buy on speculation, sell on news crew were out in force today. A nice steady road back to normalisation and 280-320p by september would be nice now. I'm a buyer at these levels.

Not JN, Colin Bird haha

Indeed. I think it is a great idea, and would be happy to form a syndicate to revolt. But....with the board and Bruce Rowan owning just under 50%, it would be extremely difficult to achieve anything and buying up the stock from the market makers to build a holding worthy of a voice would be very expensive due to the virtually nonexistent liquidity and massive spread.

This is Bruce's medical fees and pension paid for courtesy of the shareholder, and I cant see anything changing until the reaper comes calling to be frank, or the NOMAD does the honourable thing and pulls the plug. I couldnt imagine in any other circumstance JN putting up too much of a fuss over this little tiddler if a company wanted to reverse into this as he has his hands full elsewhere, and the others have a tiddly holding so would fall into line. But bruce is the only sticking point, and JN would stick by him until the aforementioned happens.