Member Info for triumph1

Johnny, yield is 6%. Half of 12 is 6.

1.5% just refers to this quarters divi. This is better than expected and was certainly priced in.

That's nice to hear bramley. I will certainly be heading down to Harvesters to take full advantage of government offering and have already been to many of the "all bar ones" dotted across London. Talking with the bar staff there, trade has been very good.

As mentioned by JoeKenny, market moves here are purely sentiment driven and MAB along with MARS and JDW are now being priced for a 2nd lockdown of the hospitality sector. There is that remote risk of course if localised outbreaks are not contained, but things would have to get seriously bad to lock down the hospitality industry again considering the economic importance of the sector and the fact that the government have gone all in on getting people back to pubs and restaurants. For now, MAB are recovering slowly but surely day by day. August looks to be a bumper month for restaurants, so certainly looking forward to how the company has been trading since lockdown and hopefully will bring the sector out of its stupor.

When the market stops its hissy fit, we should begin to see this creeping back up towards 200p again and hopefully beyond.

Looks like your BS hot air worked wonders inflating IAG and the banks. Let's all thank whatamess for today, especially the extra boost of hot air recieved this morning when things got a bit chilly.

I dont care about Lloyd's outlook, but I know a trade when I see one, and that's what this game is about. I made several % points everywhere today whilst you are too busy thinking of new ways to take a dump on the IAG and other chat boards. So whilst you wait for your 80p here and 15p Lloyd's and other nutty predictions, we all gettin' paid 4, 5, 6% daily trading this 5h!t. We talkin mid 4 figs daily like clockwork.

Now you should ask yourself, who is the real dumbass here to let slip obvious trading opportunities lol.

Let's just hope that the UK government are much more pragmatic in their approach than australia. You have two approaches. The USA approach and the Aussie approach. Both are opposite extremes. I believe europe are somewhere in the middle, a realistic approach with economic damage limitation in mind. Total eradication at this point in time is neither practical nor feasible; in fact it is simply impossible. One person coming into AUS with covid could trigger another wave.

As I said earlier, I dont think the UK hospitality sector could survive a second lockdown so I dont believe the govt here would take the aussie approach unless things got out of control as the economic damage caused would be immense, far greater than 1st lockdown.

This is one of the reasons why the UK govt gave individual counties the power to lockdown rather than leave it to central govt where they have less local intel on the situation. This is the correct approach. Why should London lock down If manchester are having a resurgence in cases?

Dipped in at 36.3p as this is fundamentally cheap, but who knows. Let's just hope a vaccine is found pronto.

I'm not invested yet buddy. Made that very clear many times but I definitely will be when the time is right. Meanwhile over on Lloyd's and barclays in which I did invest....hahahaha we are all missing you dearly and wondered where you got to. Take a break talking 5h!t here and join the party so we can rub your nose in the money we made today off your 15p Lloyd's share tip this morning.

Certainly feeling triumphant today, wouldnt you say haha.

Haha think again 5h!t for brains, the Qataris are not very likely going to let the UK government nationalise BA after investing billions in the stock through RIs. Why the **** would they invest £625m in the RI if they thought your dumbass scenario would play out? But yeah, they are happy to throw away billions because we are all dumbasses.

Qatar would buy up IAG before it is nationalised. It was mentioned here before once, but a Qatar airline - IAG merger doesn't seem so crazy now. They have always been interested in the European markets, and they could snap it up for a bargain. Qatar already own half of London so the UK govt wouldn't give a flying toss. If the unions choose strike action, it will play directly into Qatars hand's. You think that's good for staff?

Nice to see you playing with new material, but try harder clown.

Yeah, the company ceasing to exist will really help employees get better pay and contract terms. You really are as thick as two planks. You want the airline industry to crash and burn yet you feel sorry for staff in the aviation industry? Lol only you can't see the irony in that whatamess. Or mabye you will hire them to row your 2 man rubber dinghy you take out on the weekends?

However I have to agree WW is using his staff like chess pieces and have to feel for the tens of thousands losing their jobs. You cant help but feel he is over exaggerating IAG's anguish in order to get better employment terms and stave off the unions ordering a strike. They have been waiting for an opportunity like this for years, and unfortunately it is one of those occasions where it is win-win for IAG whatever the employee chooses. Lets hope Dr Fauci is right and a vaccine is found by the end of this year.

The unions in a situation like this are powerless as they cant risk calling WWs bluff and the company collapsing. That would be like shooting themselves in the foot.

Agreed TMT. Airlines and airports have to band together with aviation authorities and government and really think this through and come up with a solution that is practical. Blanket travel bans on entire countries where a very small % are infected is not practical unless we want an aviation industry or go back to 1890s method of travel. Mabye that's why whatamess got the rubber dinghy out this weekend?

So far I have flown from london to Warsaw, Warsaw to bari, bari to athens and athens to london since lockdown was lifted. I used many different airlines and all were surprisingly full, even the BA flight from athens to london. It was actually quite a pleasant experience compared to waiting in queues and the usual hustle and bustle.

Realistically, we need tests that take 5-10 minutes but we are still in early days. In 6 months, a century worth of change has happened.

JV was a little delayed but should be complete by Q4. Pubs are buzzing here in London too, always have a sneaky look at JDW, MAB and MARS pubs. All are looking very good in terms of footfall. This should only improve this August; I will be fully capitalising on the governments offering of half price food.

I agree that once fears of a 2nd wave and lockdown subdue, this should snap back fast to 50p+. How low it goes before then is anyone's guess, but the huge gap up from JV announcement has been filled now.

There you go. Pubs and restaurants are now being priced to close again. God help the UK if they choose to. The sector is one of the biggest employers. Many of the UKs small businesses are pubs and restaurants and they would not survive another lockdown. This would send shockwaves through the economy.

I really cannot see this happening now they have gone all in to help restaurants this august. Things would have to get seriously bad to go back to lockdown of pubs and restaurants.

You do have to question the timing of this RI; easyjet got their placing away whilst sentiment was much stronger. Market sentiment is shockingly bad at the moment dragging everything down, therefore risk appetite dwindles and becomes difficult to complete the RI let alone get a fair price. And if you dont take up the RI, dilution will be savage. Despite USA being 10x worse than europe, their markets continue to defy gravity. Go figure!

Surely if these conditions continue, you would think the placing would be postponed as the cash is not required immediately. One things for sure, the qataris must be rubbing their hands together.

Thought I would be in by now, but I think it's best to see how the RI plays out in this environment.

EDIT: 2:3 basis, issuing 3bn new shares @ 83.3p would dilute by 30.6% and SP would settle at 118p, not 44%.

Hi croft,

Given the current market cap and the amount being raised, a 4:1 RI is impossible as in order to raise £2.5bn, the RI share would have to be priced at £5 as there are currently approx 2bn shares in issue and a 4:1 RI would involve the issuance of just 500 million pari passu shares.

Given the Mcap as it stands today which is 3.25bn and a £2.5bn raise, possible scenarios are as follows;

- 3:2 basis, issuing 1.33bn new shares @ 188p (above current market value so unlikely at the moment unless SP increases in august.)
- 4:3 basis, issuing 1.5bn new shares @ 166.7p (No discount to market so not dilutive. As things stand, unlikely)
- 5:4 basis, issuing 1.6bn new shares @ 156.25p (Good Deal for SH in current circumstance as dilution is low, just 3.72%. markets will most likely want a bigger discount.)
- 1:1 basis, issuing 2bn new shares @ 125p (As things stand, this looks quite likely. From current levels, resultant dilution would be 15.3% and would value IAG at 147.5p, or 5.9bn)
- 2:3 basis, issuing 3bn new shares @ 83.3p (As things stand, this is far too dilutive to be considered an option. This would dilute the current holders by 44% and SP would settle at around 118p.)

These calculations are based on a pre RI SP of 170p (3.25bn mcap).

Many seem to still be confusing the term dilution. For example, if the RI shares were priced at current SP of 170p, the raise would be NON-DILUTIVE as the raise is added directly to Mcap (minus underwriter fees). The dilutive aspect comes from the RI share discount, then taking the average to work out % dilution.

That's exactly what i have been asking myself. I have come to the conclusion that it doesn't really matter as if you buy before, you purchase at effective dilution (average price of shares held prior and RI allocation). If you buy after, you access the RI allocation.

Your 65% of funds and then 35% to fund allocation would imply a 3:2 RI allocation. If the Mcap stays where it is now and considering the amount to be raised, a 3:2 allocation looks likely so this would be the correct fund allocation. If the SP slips, and no doubt it will with the negative sentiment in the markets, this ratio could get closer to 1:1 in which case you should buy 50% now and 50% RI allocation. I am keeping an eye on the Mcap to determine the most likely ratio used.

If the market takes the selloff too far, i would be happy to jump in with 50% of funds prior to D-Day. If not, I will probably wait until after RI.

The thread title is hilarious so I thought I would comment to clear up the confusion you clearly still have with a rights issue. Investopedia is a great source of info. Please use it because next time I will start to charge tuition.

I never said I disagree with a RI at 125p, I disagreed with your incorrect interpretation of it, as you were expressing the RI price of 125p as the effective dilution which is nonsense. Please see example for whitbread where I clearly illustrated RI price discount vs effective dilution.

When quoting a RI price, you have to also mention the quota of RI shares that can be brought for every shares held; just saying a price is nonsensical. For example if the SP was 175p and it was announced that the RI shares were issued at 125p with 1 allowed for every 1 currently held (1:1), the effective dilution would be 16.7% which equates to a SP of 150p, not 40% like you suggested before. 40% is just the RI discount, but only avaliable to current holders at a ratio of 1:1.

125p @ 1:1 could be a likely scenario, but depends on how IAG trades in august.

Fortunately managed to pick them up at the after hours auction for 1080.8. Anything here is very cheap. Perhaps the weak dollar is eroding the attractiveness of the dividend? Will be very interesting to see bp results and divi next week

@bovey
I am literally in stitches haha. Whilst I agree this troll is getting far too much airtime, it's very entertaining to uncover how much of a troll whatamess really is. I promise I will stop now.

Barcode/whatamug I'm not sure what this board would have done without you telling us that airlines and banks are "not rosy". I mean, with insight like that wtf are you doing here and not bezos already?

So you just said you are in a small profit and now admitted a loss....haha. 5K loss...you sure about that? Lets examine;

28 May "another 20k in. I always say this is the last 20k and then boom. i feel a little anxious though. its almost 70K".
23 June " I hold 12 million but could get to 15"

Hahahahaha so i know your maths is a bit off, but lets just say its safe to say you have got your comeuppance. By your own words you are anywhere between 20k - 35K in the hole. OUCH. You cant BS me, I am a stickler for detail and the photographic memory when scrolling through pages of your BS helps too.

So there we have it. You have been exposed as a BS'hitter by your own words time and time again haha. You just got caught out and still wont give a toss about your credibility or dignity. You just flip flop from one BS line to the next. If you think anyone believes anything you say, you are more deluded than anyone on this board.

Don't get me wrong, i would love to see this at 80p, or your TA prediction of 40p to come to fruition! I am begging for you to be right as i am not invested here. Its just a personal hobby of mine calling out trolls and catching them out.

Lets see you BS your way out of this one.

Usually a volume weighted average SP of the preceding months trading, or 14 day VWAP.

How can the company announce the price of the RI without shareholder approval?? There is no guarantee of a RI without shareholders rubber stamping it. Price will be announced shortly after 7th september if SH approve. The effective discount will be roughly 10-15% vwap over next months trading.