RE: Hi all29 Sep 2020 20:24
Indeed. Plus the fact that $40 oil (again with the short term-ism) is in the midst of a crisis not seen since ww2, so once the world comes to terms with this, planes start flying again (which they will long before the world stops needing oil) and the world growth engine jump started, oil should at least pick back up to $55. Who knows what the average price will be over the next couple of decades, but its also nice to know that OPEC certainly have no desire for oil to stay at $40 long term as they have fiscal problems of their own too, and are far too reliant on the stuff at present. But with US shale BEP at between $50 - $55, this should act as a natural floor as rigs shut down when $50 approaches, and ceiling as rig count increases if oil price ahead of itself. Of course there are many variables and this very simplistic view does not take into consideration world growth rates, speed of renewable technology advancement ect, but the price of oil in normal times, a sensible guess would be avg around $50 - $65? Mabye technological advancement could bring the BEP of shale down, but i am assuming world demand could offset this?
I agree the price of oil & shells successful transitioning into renewables are very highly correlated, and a long term avg of $40 would not be great, but i really cant see the long term average being this low. We as investors should be closely scrutinising how shell uses every dollar made over the next couple of decades.