Member Info for TrickyDicky2

wasarunner

I’m more inclined to think they will be operational and producing before they get an approach. Big miners don’t mind paying top dollar for something that’s up and running. The downside of that for us is we will have to wait longer. The upside is the price will be higher.

TDT

Garf

“From the Nickel stock chart and the rate of depletion it appears that stocks will used up at some point later this year.”

Not so sure about that. Draw down from the LME has slowed considerably since the start of the New Year. Tsingshan’s bet on nickel prices falling this year is probably based on this.

https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/membership/indonesia-set-for-five-fold-increase-in-battery-nickel-supply/?mc_cid=da78a76ec5&mc_eid=d9a5a4a0be

If MHP can tackle it’s ESG issue to Western OEM’s satisfaction it could fill the supply shortage plus some. If it does it will only push back the inevitable IMO 2 years at most.

TDT

......there is a slow patient and methodical transfer of shares going on here. From whom and to whom is the big unknown but I reckon its impatient PIs being slowly stripped of their holdings. I could be wrong.

TDT

They talk a good game.

TDT

Oooops!

"Tsingshan has done it before and you wouldn't bet against them doing it again."

TDT

Interesting article.

https://www.mining.com/web/trader-known-as-big-shot-battles-mystery-nickel-stockpiler/

Tsingshan has done it before and you would bet against them doing it again. Whichever way this goes the impact on the nickel market will be significant.

TDT

Drop me an e-mail at fitlikebowwow @ g mail.com

TDT

Normal service has been resumed.

Yesterday's anomaly might simply be down to Chinese New Year coming to an end and everybody going back to work. Whatever was responsible for the increase in LME nickel stocks has now been reversed plus some.

TDT

Nickel stocks in the LME went up today. That’s the first increase in about 3 months.

TDT

Nthoftheriver

If somebody were consistently buying in the market to reduce the end bid the share price would be going up not deflating. I just think we are seeing a news vacuum malaise, nothing more, and I don't think there's going to be a low ball bid for the company either.

TDT

wasarunner

I'm not aware of anybody suggesting a buyout at 8p - 10p.

The interesting thing here is the dial has moved from Horizonte being a predominantly a PI owned company to an II owned one. II's have a much longer investment time frame than PIs so 2-3-4 years, as you suggest, seems perfectly reasonable.

TDT

......has left the building.

TDT

"I don’t really see why negotiations with a JV partner/bidder or whoever would preclude operational updates."

Somebody always knows and somebody always tells. If a disposal were being considered for the sorts of figures being mentioned here the share price wouldn't have dipped under 6p. They may have negotiation tied down tighter than a monkey's chuff but news would still leak. Especially when you consider the differential between the current share price, 5.95p, and the figures being bandied around here, 15p to 20p. Of course the price being discussed could be an awful lot less than PIs expectations. Predictions here haven't been particularly accurate of late so who knows.

If Horizonte is going to be sold its not going to be now IMO. At the earliest I'd expect to see it go under the hammer after Araguaia achieves nameplate.

If a sale is being discussed now then brace yourselves for another disappointment.

TDT

Red in Portugese is vermelha.

TDT

The inventor of predictive text, Martin King, died last week.

His funfair will be this coming monkey.

TDT

I was in Chine 4th. Q 2019 and 1st. 2020. I can assure you covid was circulating and restrictions were being imposed long before the Chinese admitted or acknowledged.

As for nickel stocks in the LME they bottomed on 14/11/2019 at 64,176 tonnes but we’re still only 69,276 tonnes on 9/12/2019. They only really started to rise after this date.

What is happening in China and what the Chinese authorities tell you is happening in China are two different things.

TDT

Billyboy2fromiii

Stocks of nickel in the LME went from a low of 64,176 tonnes on the 14th. November 2019 all the way up to 235,428 tonnes on 28th. February 2020 down to one thing. Covid-19.

A black swan event such as this is impossible to predict but when it happens the fallout can be spectacular. That's the sole reason, IMO, why stocks of nickel in the LME went up over that period. We can only cross our fingers and hope that something similar doesn't happen again or at least doesn't happen until the sale of KM is concluded and the proceeds distributed to PIs.

TDT

JulianM

I think Amur has been in discussions with an interested party/parties for years. It's only now that we are approaching the finishing line that these discussions are becoming more substantive.

TDT

Billyboy2fromiii

You can see the number of warrants outstanding on 01/02/2022 in the Amur web site.

https://amurminerals.com/share-information/

It states quite clearly that 32,732,226 warrants are outstanding on that date. The 13m warrants exercised and admitted to trading since that date will come off this total at the next update.

9m+ warrants awarded to either Adam Habib or Carlo Holdings Ltd, can't remember which, were cancelled after the interims were published.

TDT

I guess we shall see soon enough if anybody is kicking the tyres.

TDT