Member Info for TrickyDicky2

Worth a listen.

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/dir-6hxhb-12f3cb8d?utm_campaign=w_share_ep&utm_medium=dlink&utm_source=w_share

TDT

pickedpeck

The issue has got nothing to do with Tsingshan being able to invest further or not. The problem with nickel goes way beyond that and has a history going back to a time before Tsingshan.

TDT

Thanks to CBS on the AMC BB.

This is well worth a read. Short and to the point Andy Home hits the nail right on the head.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/nickel-devils-metal-with-history-bad-behaviour-2022-03-10/

TDT

CBS

Excellent article. Andy Home hits the nail on the head once again.

TDT

".....the fact that the company’s output does not match the grade of nickel used in settlement on the LME....:

Really! And when did that penny drop I wonder.

That's the really interesting thing here. LME Grade 1 and 65% to 70% of the market grade 2. There's a fairly significant adjustment in the nickel market on the horizon IMO.

TDT

"Are you the real Forest Gump?"

He/she is not for real. He's the board's entertainment. Every board should have one. It helps alleviate the monotony while we wait.

TDT

If our interested buyer is still in the frame, and I think they are, I'd expect them to be doing the same.

TDT

Hazbeen

Western OEMs don't want class 1 nickel unless it meets their stringent ESG standards. I'm not sure how Russian class 1 nickel would slip through that net even if it is routed via China. As for the Chinese EV market itself that's predominantly LFP.

So many different ways to look at what's going on right now with a bewildering variety of different possible outcomes.

TDT

Hazbeen

That all begs the question "what happens once the Russians turn the nickel tap back on again".

The interesting thing here is Norilsk is purely Class 1. Indonesia is predominantly class 2/NPI and nickel matte. There's going to be a huge incentive for product coming out of Indonesia to be matte ready for further processing into Class 1. That's going to be both dirty and expensive. Indonesians are going to be burning massive amounts of coal to generate the additional power needed to produce these increases in nickel out put.

It's all pretty depressing when you think about it but nowhere near as depressing as goings on in Ukraine.

TDT

mjb606

The article I posted was written by a journalist and they're not known for their accuracy and/or fact checking so it's really anybodies guess as to what's going on. Tomorrow should be interesting.

TDT

pickedpeck

I would be so quick to write them off. Tsingshan brought NPI to the market and changed the industry. The bet on the nickel price softening later this year given their plan to produce class 1 nickel from laterite, admittedly without the sprakling ESG credential required by western OEMs, could have moved the dial once again. The black swan event that's just clobbered the market nobody could have foreseen.

Tsingshan is far too well connected for this little set back to affect them in the long run. A kick in the goolies that's for sure but survivable I would have thought. I see them going after the class 1 EV battery market now with even greater vigour. That's the big growth sector for nickel and where the highest margins are or at least that's where they are in the immediate to near term.

TDT

mjb606

".....has closed out part of his company’s short position and is considering whether to exit the wager altogether...."

"While the exact scale of Xiang’s losses is unclear...."

"Tsingshan itself has been struggling to pay margin calls to its brokers...."

"Earlier, the 145-year-old LME also gave one of Tsingshan’s brokers...."

Could just be a margin call but I wouldn't expect him to announce what he's going to do before he's done it, would you? I can't see the sorts of losses he must be facing being sustainable given the sorts of market movements we've seen recently.

TDT

Just in case most folks don’t click on the link or if they do don’t read the whole article this bit at the bottom caught my eye.

“In assessing the unusual situation in nickel, some traders also point to the influence of an unidentified stockpiler who controlled somewhere between 50% and 80% of nickel warehouse warrants monitored by the LME as of last month.

Trading and mining giant Glencore Plc was the dominant holder of nickel in recent months, according to people familiar with the matter. A Glencore spokesman declined to comment.”

That’s going to be one seriously cashed up company if it is Glencore holding 50% to 80% of LME nickel warrants.

TDT

BwanaMakubwa

I’ve no special insights and my views and opinions are no more valid than anybody else’s save to say this. In a market such as the one we are currently in nobody has any idea where it might go or when. It’s simply another black swan.

This fella is cashing out his position.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/amp/markets/chinese-tycoon-behind-big-nickel-short-faces-billions-in-losses

Does that mean he doesn’t see things calming down or are his losses just far too large to bear.

TDT

Nickel stocks now down to 75,012 tonnes with today's draw down 1,818 tonnes. At those sorts of levels 2 to 3 months and its all gone.

TDT

Tsingshan's "Big Shot" is probably feeling and awful lot less "Big" now.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-14/trader-known-as-big-shot-battles-mystery-nickel-stockpiler

TDT

They say the fastest way to make a small fortune in the markets is to start with a large one.

TDT

The only thing that an exploding nickel price will do is hasten a (formal) split in the market for Class 1 and Class 2 nickel and produce a bigger incentive to thrift nickel out of EV batteries. This sort of unsustainable rapid rise in the price of nickel is not good in the long run.

TDT

“……. from people in the top echelons of the Chinese Secret Service.”

I’d sack these people in the Chinese Secret Service because they’re clearly not very good at keeping a secret!

TDT

I think it's all the difference voices in Putin's head competing for attention, trying to be heard that's the problem. He's got Gollum/Smeagol syndrome.

TDT