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Decent finish to the day - FSS contract and financing close and we are seriously off to the races.

Why are you posting @AIMgambler? What is your target price to buy in? What is your interest in HARL?

Wow - Midas is the biggest retail investor column in the U.K. and it has picked HARL for one of its top 3 shares for 2023. Nice morale support for those of us who have been saying such over the last few months. I completely agree and can see 100% upside from current 15p share price, over the next 10-12 weeks (assuming likelihood of FSS and financing getting over the line). From 30 pence (or £50m market cap, we are then looking at a clear pathway to £150-200m market cap over a 3 year period.

I think you’re right - either way, HARL will funded to the hilt

£150-200m UKEF backed facility… would be a remarkable achievement for a £28m MC company. Serious growth on the cards… anyone got any experience of how UKEF works? Add in the £77m from Navantia and we are probably fully funded for the entire journey to £500m annual revenue.

So circa 30m revenue is deferred and maybe £10m written off… and we are due to receive a 700-900m contract… 25% discount seems like a good opportunity to top up. DYOR

I believe you. what is your valuation / buy in price for HARL?

@aimgambler - what is your valuation / buy in price for HARL?

Thanks for sharing - I agree with his comments.

Thanks Stokey

@AIgambler - would you like a gentleman’s bet? I wager that the company’s market cap will be at least £50m post FSS and financing (announcements due within 12 weeks). Anything below £50m MC, you win?! Happy to put something on it - perhaps you decide?

Good post. I think people like ****ging management off but IMO JW has done a very good job. The economy is in bits but we now have the U.K. government as its biggest client and security, energy and supply chain on shoring is going to be the global macro theme for the next decade. I’m still so excited by HARL. P.S. - IM gas project ??!!?

Closed period commences 1 Jan until release of annual results in March/April. No director buys possible until then (unless they buy today but I would have thought they are in possession of inside info re the FSS contract).

There is no getting away from the fact the RNS is bad news! However, my investment case was based on 2024 revenue and profit margin, which as far as I can see remains likely unchanged. FY22 is now in the past. I think at £25m market cap, HARL is definitely a contender for share of 2023. It is high risk but very high reward.

Have people also forgotten the £77m investment from Navantia as part of the FSS contract. Putting aside revenue, there is going to be a massive net asset value for HARL by end of next year. We just need to see everything in black and white. JW didn’t buy in at 24 pence recently if he wasn’t confident.

Possibly but I think at £25m market cap, there is now a material difference between the current valuation for HARL and the basic maths of the £1.6b contract. No investment is without risk but I can see 100% gain in quite short order.

Just read the trading update - disappointing but goes to show the incredibly difficult time in the economy. Luckily a 1.6b contract is on the way and the financing situation looks good. Ran the numbers and no placing should be needed with current financing in place. If the new Astra financing does not close (which I think it will given term sheet signed) then we can start talking about placing in Q2. Good luck all. I maintain 30p post FSS and financing as new base.

Closed above 20 day moving average.

FSS and funding updates due imminently. 2023 should be a great year for HARL. My personal price target for next year is 40 pence, which I think is realistic. Post FSS I expect 30 pence and £50m market cap is new base.

A truly exciting company

To clarify - I agree Gusto. But I would take one if it was done after FSS and financing at a £50m market cap and at no discount and if brought on board a reputable cornerstone big name investor or two!

In relation to any placing in the near term - if there was one, I can only see it as opportunistic to bring on board institutional investors that may have expressed an interest in becoming investors. I fail to see how any placing would be done at a significant discount, especially given the additional Astra headroom (will be £50m!) plus the £77m FSS investment.