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The bottom line is this. If HARL announce what many think the will re FSS, then this will do 100% from current market cap. I.e. a minimum of £700m revenue to flow via HARL over 9 years. It will essentially underwrite the path to £500m annual revenue. Plus it will unlock the £150-200m Astra financing and possibly the UKEF financing.

Anyone that thinks this results in a £25m market cap is deluded.

Woosh chunky end to the day - plus 6% on decent volume

Nice finish +4%. Soon time for +100-150 IMO

Going to be funny to see the scramble for shares here if the FSS commercials are as we expect them to be… I have my own calculations and fair value estimates and we are quite simply MILES away! Good weekend, all!

Wouldn’t be surprised to get the FSS RNS next week. I think the Astra financing may take a few more weeks - company guided Q1 and so I think perhaps February that gets sorted…

Nice to see the share price move up towards the end of a bad week !

What i'm getting it is: assuming FSS has no upfront payment (and even assuming FSS is signed in late Q1) and assuming Astra financing does not close until late Q1, do you think the company has sufficient working capital? I'm trying to understand how we are valued at £25m and the only conclusion I have is that some must be anticipating a placing to cover short term working cap requirements... But I just can't see that!

What is your view of a potential placing (assuming the Astra financing doesn't complete until end of Q1 (i.e. end of March)?
As far as I can extrapolate, there is circa £20m Riverstone facility still untapped and circa £10m cash...

Thank god.

Benitz has millions invested - let’s wait and see. I’m inclined to take him at his word for now. Meanwhile, Brent Crude is rallying - now at 85 bucks. JOG static

I think the EPL has massively boosted JOGs value. Broker estimates that it has added 52% value to average North Sea development project

Interesting posts. Has anyone noticed Brent is up 7.5% in the last 3 days? Looking like a rally to $90 is on the cards. Cumon Benitz - time to strike the deal

No - if a producer purchased JOG outright, it would have the ability to offset the windfall tax.

The key differences between a farmout and takeover include:

1. Farmout = specific to Buchan. Takeover = all of JOG's assets
2. Farmout = 80% (ish) interest in Buchan. Takeover = 100%
3. Farmout = key JOG executives staying on to deliver project. Takeover likely means no JOG execs staying on
4. Famout = lower risk for producer, as it will not assume any of JOG's liabilities

Two of them!

But would the HARL board accept a takeover even at a 100% premium? I don’t think so… farmout would be far more accretive to shareholders long term

Oil price rallying strongly - can only help the farmout process. Broker target prices 660-720p based on long term oil price of $75-90. Simon Thompson (small cap journalist of the year) thinks these targets are far too conservative in the event of a farmout.

Time will tell (and i'm trying hard not to get carried away) but we could well be on the cusp of a very memorable week. The share price could potentially double or triple in fairly short order.

Finished blue :-)

My guess would be signing and announcement together towards the end of next week / early the following week, with the Astra financing to follow a few weeks later and the UKEF a couple of on months after than.

Then we will also have huge IM announcement in early May (only 4 months away).

Plus potential other big contract win announcements - its going to be a roller-coaster year!

You are right - I can't say for certain. But based on extrapolating interims to year end, HARL should have £10m cash and £20m untapped Riverstone debt facility. Factor in incoming FSS revenue, £77m capital injection and new £150-200m Astra financing, oh and the fact our CEO recently purchased shares, and that is quite overwhelming evidence... What is your evidence? A hunch?

Sorry to disappoint but there is no placing coming for HARL, unless FSS contract is pulled and Astra financing falls through (which is extremely unlikely). Frustrating to see HARL valued at £25m but I strongly suspect that once everything is laid out in an RNS or two, there is no way the market will be able to attribute less that £50m to HARL's market cap. The directors estimate IM could be sold for £35-50m alone (pre judicial review).