Member Info for Trendz

Now up to 87 bucks - up almost 15% in the past week or so. Reaffirms that oil should steady out between 90-100 bucks. JOG is a screaming buy

Will post fully later this morn but I think we could see a decent rerate today based on what Stokey has found!

Great find Stokey. Confirms that Riverstone faculty extended until we get new Astra financial close. Also refers to the FSS being executed in due course. This should do well today purely on basis that market can now be sure definitely no placing needed

Investors@harland-wolff.com

Yes, I chased quite a few times.

My pleasure - they did apologise for the delayed response and stated that they had been very busy... I wonder why?!

I have been exchanging emails with IR who have promised me a detailed response to the below questions by the end of this week (maybe significant re timings for FSS?? Who knows):

1. Will there be a revenue guidance update post the FSS signing (the 30 December update does not address 2023 revenue or beyond... rather only a revenue warning for 2022)?

2. Is there any plan for Cenkos to issue an updated broker note?

3. What will the structure of the £77m FSS capital investment take - will Navantia be loaning this or taking HARL equity/shares?

4. What exactly Liberum has been engaged to do - will it be producing research, or assistance with equity financing?

5. Are you able to estimate a timeframe for FSS and Astra close out?

I will share answers once received

All I would say is that what i'm hearing from those in the UK oil and gas industry is that large shovel ready projects such as GBA will be first in line for development by the big the big boys and that the tax breaks mean that 2023 will be the year of farm-ins and M&A.

Another 5-6% rise tomorrow please.

Had a look through your posts (all on HARL) and they are disgraceful. All negative, all calling for a lower share price.

Why are you here? What is your interest in HARL?

I couldn’t be more relaxed about the timing of the FSS contract but if it helps, i suspect it will be by next Friday, with the Astra financing closing shortly after.

The commercial breakdown is going to be the interesting part!

Yes - from my understanding as to the process for gov procurement, the treasury would have given the informal sign off already. And ministers would not override the results of the tender process

I would add that I have used a traditional earnings valuation to come to that figure and also used quite conservative FSS commercials. I would like to read the broker note post FSS to see its revised projections…

@Oily - the market cap shouldn’t be hundreds of millions.. at least not for a few years. My view is that based on market valuations, expected revenue, market margins and company projections re cash break even point, we are looking at a fair value of 30-40p for 2023. That is essentially £50-60m market cap.

Of course, as we get more clarity (eg other big contract wins or IslandMgee project partnership or sale (a sale would net the the company £35-55m at this point in time, according to the board)) and we could see an upward revision to the base value. BUT for now I feel 30p should be a fair value

I agree with Stokey. My view is that we will see FSS contract signing/breakdown RNS within the next couple of weeks, with the ASTRA deal closed a couple of weeks later (mid-Feb) and then the UKEF deal maybe a month later (March). All is fine, as we have 12 months working capital under current cash and Riverstone facility

I don’t think it’s a leaky ship. I think it’s just the obvious discrepancy of a company being given a £25m market cap when it has a clear road path to many hundreds of millions in revenue… I maintain that a market cap of £50m post FSS and Astra is the absolute minimum that I can see this terrible market attribute to HARL

To be signed this week? Tomorrow is exactly two months since the announcement of preferred bidder status… I’m just saying :-)

Yes, I believe JOG has been one of Malcy's favourites for a while.

This was his commentary on the Sep Interims and Verbier licence extenstion:

Interims:

"Great progress is being made with our GBA farm-out process – the key activity for the Group in 2022. Interest is strong, technical studies across the various development solutions are well advanced and commercial discussions are ongoing with serious, well-funded counterparties. Since launching the process, the Company’s engagement strategy has been broadened to advance a range of competing development solutions, thereby providing increased optionality.”

I like the sound of ‘Great progress’ as the outlook for JOG is extremely promising, the results speak for themselves. Activity at the GBA project is going through the gears and of course the company have a very fair wind behind them as ironically the Looney tax investment reliefs make the economics even more attractive than before.

The background is excellent as the GBA project is pretty much unique in terms of a sizeable play, with substantial upside and will appeal to companies of all sizes and from multiple geographies.

Those shareholders who have stuck with JOG have been rewarded this year, the shares have exactly doubled since February but I think the upside is so substantial that when a deal is signed a very high asset value will start to become clear. My optimism on JOG and its management has remained steadfast since the start and the reason why I am so excited now that GBA’s time is imminent."

Verbier extension

"A perfectly sensible piece of house-keeping from JOG whose licences at Buchan are all now aligned as the company progresses the farm-out process. Indeed, despite the ‘multiple fiscal changes’ slowing this progress it is good to see the company upbeat about the timing of such a farm-out as it expects that a ‘successful conclusion’ looks like being not far away.

The shares have performed well on the year but have suffered somewhat recently as the market awaited details of the updated North Sea fiscal policies which understandably unnerved the market. With that now quantifiable and the company being more positive I am very happy to remain a buyer of the shares."

I wondered if the £77m capital investment is just a promise from HARL to invest said amount by what eve funding they can obtain? Is that possible? The £77m was expressed as coming from the consortium, so one would think that Navantia is involved in some way

What I’m still not clear on is the £77m capital injection. If this is an interest free loan from Navantia? Might Navantia take a stake in HARL? All very exciting.