Member Info for Trendz

Woof. This is going well

Going v well here - 25p soon IMO

OK - i'll take that as my cue to leave this board. Good luck all - quite a powerful echo chamber in this share. Myles has got his merry band very pumped. Good luck.

Its nothing against Avacta - objectively, the technology and business seems great. Its nothing personal - just a game to me

Is that not distorted by the bond debt, tho?

How do you calculate £1.5m burn er month, specifically? I've already given you my specific methodology. Happy to be proven wrong. I don't have a myopic view. Genuinely curious.

I don't pay attention to pie in the sky broker target prices unless they are substantiated by a proven track record of revenue and net profit. However, the forecast figures (e.g. forecast revenue, spend and loss) comes directly from the company. The forecast is for a loss of £31m this year. Do maths. cash runway extremely limited.

Cashed up until 1 Jan 2025 you say? Absolutely, ignorantly, wrong.

Absolutely terribly strategy to try and land a commercial deal when you have a few months cash runway left. With the huge bond already taken out, no other traditional debt is an option. You’re then relying on a placing. The placees will demand a ruddy good discount, unless there is a white knight. All in all, there is one hell of a lot of hope required to get comfortable with the cash position. I’m shocked this is still being given a £300m valuation.

Cool. I’ll check back tomorrow to see if anyone knows where the urgent need for cash is coming from. Otherwise, I’ll just wait for the inevitable shafting of existing equity holders.

So basically you’re comfortable with the cash position because the execs have said not to worry, despite the basic mathematical position? Sounds really sensible

The Sarcasm backed up by any logic? A placing is the only route option to company bar a Hail Mary save the day commercial deal coming in at the last minute. AIM placing for a broke company, you’re probably looking at 30% discount. So around 60/70p depending on SP weakness in the near term

Also factor in the fact the company are now in debt at a level that exceeds its annual revenue and this is looking in severe financial distress. Full disclosure: I have a very small short on AVCT. Welcome to be corrected

Anyone sensible / with actual knowledge of the finances, please feel free to correct me

How can the company be funded to Autumn? £26m cash 7 months ago. Losing £31m a year as per updated broker notes (which equates to £2.58m a month). 7 months at £2.58m totals £18.1m meaning there is £7.9m left in the kitty. Or the equivalent of 3 months!!! That is absolutely mental for a company valued at £300m. Any negotiations will be from a position of terrible weakness.

Looks like no one has a clue about the cash situation.

Great rationale answer there. Am I wrong?

If so, please specifically state how.

Is anyone able to rationally explain how Avacta is not about to run out of cash? As at 30 June 23 (7 months ago) there was £26m cash. The company is forecast to lose £31m this year. Must be running on fumes… Can’t afford to pay the bond holder back so has to pay in shares. How will they convince the auditors this is a going concern? The cash situation is urgent. Willing to listen to any rational counter

If anyone wants to start investing in quality GARP stocks and recovery plays, with a small side of short term trading of AIM junk, come and follow me on X @trendz_LSE

The US share price is up again after hours and looks like my 20% target will be hit tomorrow. Paid for my ski holiday. Sometimes trading is easy. First trade I’ve done in a while but they are so obvious when they appear. Yours, a modest Trendz