Member Info for TrekMadone

Hi Belgrano,

I hope you are right for all investors here. If that is indeed the case then that should have been guided in the RNS. There is an opportunity for the BoD to provide updated financial guidance during trading statements and at results. That is especially essential e.g. if fcf changes due to capex expenditure or say if reporting measures change. They could indicate what the cash would have been and what they expect going forward. This was unclear. I see aim is very brutal and that’s why I think 30p, I also subscribe to elicro’s view of £5. I just think it will take longer and I am happy to invest elsewhere for now even if I buy back in here at a higher price later on. I am not just going to buy or sell if it hits a certain price point. Although that is obviously important one also buys or sells based on the story and atm I would rather wait to see more unfold. Gla Trek.

“ I have more of an understanding of how the numbers are likely to pan out. It's just not easy to get your head round but in the TW interview Tom gets to the point and all becomes a lot clearer for me anyway. Definitely much patience required still and accumulation where possible at these low prices”

Totally agree with these views that’s why I sold and others will buy or hold. It’s what makes a market. But for me these results should have indicated a steeper sp glidepath ahead. Instead they were poor, nay, atrocious. I had been here for over seven years, long, and I should have known better. I was blind and dismissed my own instincts about how aim gives subtle hints, like IFRS changes, second half being better, again, and obviously the revenue numbers we all angst over. But this is because the underlying story has been sound thus far contract wise. Imo the Opti story has moved to a much higher risk level now. I think the website will fizzle out, I mean who buys there unless celebrity endorsed. The money is in the compounds. They gotta focus on that, sugar and pro bio and all that stuff but it’s been slow. I do believe that investments here will do well but it’s still going to take more time and more money and that money seems to be coming desperately from SBTX atm. That can’t last, they will have to imo raise. Christina was an expert in her field. Look at the appt RNS but she failed. Why coz she sat on her hands, I doubt it. More like atm there isn’t the market or will to change or launch new products against the current climate. If that is the case replacing Christina won’t matter. I lost a lot of money here, more shares than the recent director buy! but I sold whilst I still had cash to invest elsewhere as I see this hitting the 30’s now on eventual placing news. I will though keep up with Opti with a view to buying back even if at a higher price than I sold at as long as I see my concerns addressed. Good luck to all investors here. Trek.

Thought i’d missed an RNS but usual aim bollcks! More indicative buys than indicative sells and the mm move the price down. Still at least they haven’t fooled most of the punters here. Remember MATD is traded on SETSqx so there is overt MM influence if liquidity is low hence we see odd prices and often extreme spreads.

Wake me up when there is an RNS.

Trek, letting it ride!

Picking up on my earlier toll bridge analogy, what is being over looked here is that the vix drives traffic volumes. So although the bridge tickets are slightly cheaper at $9 instead of $10 we are experiencing an increase in traffic which covers the 10% difference. Furthermore, because our costs of maintaining the bridge are lower with new machines and cheaper electricity we are getting a better ROCE so our profit margin may actually be more rather than less even though the tickets are cheaper.

Honestly you would think them City boffs would have got their heads around this by now. It is really difficult to pick a bottom for ARB but while they are figuring it out imo buy coz we are heading for £1.

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/miners-revenue

Trek

£1

Bandit786, I hold ECO and your summation is correct as far as the data can be assumed accurate which indeed indicates a very tight ship. I like many PI’s and insti’s sold some ahead of the ECO drill and the SP drifted. There were no large trades day before although there were at TLW, but who knows as it’s a bigger co. So it makes sense the sp drifted as people took some risk off the table to protect profit. Over the years a tight ship has been the exception not the rule, I remember the shenanigans at XEL and IMM ahead of bad news in the case of xEL a massive P&D and for IMM big after hours sells. Or when the sp of NPE was taken down then bang takeover! All conjecture of course, yea right! I will be surprised if they can keep a lid on this one but who knows. Trek, prepare to be surprised! But not an oil oops it’s water RNS please (DES)! Lol!

Stupid machine, checking browser posted twice. Still got the post count up!

Trek, Trek!

I added again here today, mine was the first trade this morning. I am surprised that this close to potentially transformational news we are still under radar. I noticed that even oil man Jim didn’t give us a mention on his recent blog. It shows the power of the herd as some shares are really ramped and others not and often the fundamentals have nowt to do with it. Perhaps we should change our name? Nah just deliver the gas! Treknotsexy!

I added again here today, mine was the first trade this morning. I am surprised that this close to potentially transformational news we are still under radar. I noticed that even oil man Jim didn’t give us a mention on his recent blog. It shows the power of the herd as some shares are really ramped and others not and often the fundamentals have nowt to do with it. Perhaps we should change our name? Nah just deliver the gas! Treknotsexy!

That was nice, a stroll across the moors with dog, busy though, saw 3 people, that’s about as busy as it is here! Following the cracking news today my first observation is how many posts on LSE, very few compared to the likes of HUR or SXX, shhh! Still Under radar and I added more today at 10.48 from memory, may have paid a bit over but doesn’t matter and Mrs Trek was hovering!

So on the news.

The 1000 antminers ordered in April installed in May have payed off the capex investment by we assume August. Now across any industry Capex is Capex and ROCE is ROCE and the EBITDA benefits are the same. This is a bit like building a bridge and the tolls pay off the cost of the bridge in 6 months! Sure the antminers may not last as long as the bridge and the toll price is a little more volatile but we’re are getting £10 a ticket when the service of the bridge is £2 and we have made so much money that we have ordered another bridge over 3xbigger with the same ROCE and are already “ahead of schedule to recoup the costs”. FFS and the market don’t get it! This is why I am selling elsewhere and buying here.

Picking up on the bridge analogy one of the biggest risks is we don’t get the traffic. Ok so at the moment the difficulty is going up but so is hashrate and so is mining revenue and the mempool is up yoy. So you get the picture that the traffic is there and there are a few alternative routes but based on ARB’s efficiency whilst we don’t have a traffic jam the traffic is flowing just fine and that will be seen in our next income statement, the hard measure. Note though our FCF will be all over the place due to capex expenditure. Really looking forward to those numbers at I strongly believe that will be our first significant rerate.

https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts

Share options for Shaw are at 16p. This is significant as it gives confidence to insti’s that invested at IPO that all is well and hello PI’s what does that tell us. Furthermore, Bixby has been granted an extension for options but also 16p. Mmmm so if you can wait more than a few months 16p will soon imo be cheap.

Re the share transfers, a lot of it is tax. HNW individuals often use shell companies or investment vehicles to manage such affairs but they have held said shares.

What is interesting is the notification that “Toro Consulting, sold 10,540,000 Ordinary Shares to a third party’. This is just conjecture but my view is there is an international player that is interested in a piece of ARB and that exchange may have been done as part of a wider deal. We may see but I don’t think they are just given away. I say international as over 3% would require a TR1 but it’s 5% for international albeit 3 is optional.

https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5.pdf

The rate at which they are paying off this Capex is astounding! On an earlier post I explained how our current revenue trajectory achieving £40m/yr at a SP of £1 would only command a pe of less than 8.

Trek, y

Mrs Trek has grabbed iPad as we’re going out. Speak later.

Trek,

£1

I sounds patronising now but try not to worry about it. In a few days reality and perspective will set in and you will see how blessed we are to take a loss and have the resilience to recover. Just being in the UK means 92% of the world are poorer off than us.

Trek, GL

As many of you know I have been long Opti for many years. Not ashamed to say I was wrong or probably too early in the cycle to be right. No bitterness this is investing and I have learnt to take losses to preserve capital for the next ride. I read the RNS several times and read it as Christina has not delivered and they don’t want to tap the market sold have sold some sbtx. The deals are solid but macro is tough and confidence low. My views have changed but I do expect this to come good just later.

Good luck to all.

If anyone is interested in where I have put my cash I have split it across TXP that have a 90% CoS drill underway and ARB that are virtually printing money! Both under radar.

GLA

Trek

Sweet 8.33% up today on TSX.

https://www.google.ca/search?safe=strict&q=TSE:+TXP&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgecRoyi3w8sc9YSmdSWtOXmNU4-IKzsgvd80rySypFJLgYoOy-KR4uLj0c_UNkrOzsgwLeRaxcoQEu1ophEQEAACSxzQXRQAAAA&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjGqezzo6HkAhXCxIUKHZ3SA8kQlq4CegQIARAI&biw=1024&bih=729&dpr=2

Trek

Imo they gotta secure funds for second drill. That’s a massive deal atm. It gives investors and borrowers another crack and if not needed it gives more protection from low ball t/o. It also helps significantly strengthen ones hand when negotiating farm out. If there is an appetite for funding one drill they can fund two.
In terms of strategy l have risked Bpc to let it ride. No top slice here. After all theses years I could have virtually doubled my money by compounding a divi at LGEN.
Trek, payback time!

Yes both measures FCF to Firm and FCF to equity exclude interest but there are subtle differences between the two and when reading accounts with complex loan and capex structures it is important to understand which is being reported.

This is a useful link.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/freecashflow.asp

Trek, accounting for differences.

Hi OaW,

The only clarity is in the last accounts which is basically a forecast.

“ Enhancement of acquired assets' NPV10 by 35%, and of the associated forecast cash flows by an average of 58% over the 2019 - 2022 period, as reviewed by Savannah's Competent Person[1].”

So as Hannam says, significant FCF is dependent on 7 closure, this aligns with the audited accounts.

Atm we are basically dependent on the placings and revolving credit facilities to keep the lights on. So my interpretation is there is no FCF from deal commencement to completion.

One to watch out for is how FCF is reported, there are two measures, one before debt repayments and one after. The reason I state this is because of where we are on the growth curve. 7 is absolutely key and it’s the cashflow risk and a fear of placing that has depressed the sp. But this is set to change, significantly.

Trek, jam tomorrow with cream and a cherry on top!

“The theory is that Bitcoin ETF approval could lead to massive investor interest in Bitcoin, by making it easy for anyone to own a chunk of physical Bitcoin through an ETF without actually needing to worry about the custodial issues of buying and holding Bitcoin.

The same thing happened with gold prices, it's thought. Gold bars are heavy and security is expensive, hence why ETFs make it much easier for anyone to own gold. The first gold ETF was introduced in 2003 with about US$200,000 in assets under management (AUM), and gold prices of around $330 an ounce. A decade later, gold ETFs had about $132 billion AUM, and prices grew to about $1,600 an ounce.

If you assume Bitcoin follows the same trajectory for the same reasons, Bitcoin prices could multiply in the coming years.”

Of course if no one wants it it wouldn’t bode well for BTC, but I think that is unlikely. The finance system seems to be craving an alternative ‘asset’.

Trek.

Ps I would recommend Finder to anyone the crypto weekly news letter is excellent. There is a UK version as well.

https://www.finder.com.au/bakkt-cleared-to-launch-23-september-to-provide-a-trusted-ecosystem?futm_source=email_internal%7E156655455444483e380d45c2f&utm_source=email_internal&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_term=156655455444483e380d45c2f&utm_campaign=s%253a%2Bgx%253a%2Bcryptocurrency%2B%2528recurring%2529&utm_content=20190823&bt_ee=%2BwtP71h9C7maMd%2BVqwPbuyExk9IjoWSIPG3sZBTT2U7LNGoWNni0pvMG2J4Wecrv&bt_ts=1566554554447

I’m sure the trades page here is stuck I bought around £1700 over an hour ago and still not showing. Well that’s me done now. £102 left for the bank holiday weekend! Told Mrs Trek I’d cook. Trek, beans on toast anyone!

You couldn’t make it up, a few flushed at 146-148 and now the MM move the ask up. Incredible. Hope none of the posters here were duped, understand if you gotta sell but this is taking the ps! Trek.

Looks like results next wee or week after then. Quite excited at those ebitda prospects. Trek