Member Info for TrekMadone

If there ever was a prize for the best report for a sub £50m Co then THR would win hands down! I have seldom seen such clear well presented information.

The operational program speaks for itself. Have looked through the finances and I expect them to raise in the new year. The obvious aim being to add value from the existing program. Ops cash burn will take them to probably closer to 2 quarters (box 8.7) and they won’t want to run it to the wire. A$1.6m in the bank is a decent amount at this stage. Hoping there will be more ops expenditure.

The model of small regular raises off the back of SP increases should give those buying now confidence, see chart. Also with so many programs the company can hold or accelerate differing areas according to financial needs, market prices or just focus on higher impact which is what they are doing now with Ragged Range. Happy days!

Trek

Obviously the market was expecting more immediate cash impact from contracts. I read it as that will be due the second half. £1.2m is a massive step up on 2019 and as you can see £511k came in just before the cut off. I expect there is more that missed, would have helped if that could be clear in guidance.

Overall loss of £8.5m a slight increase but they made an acquisition. It’s now clear that all the RCF was used and they now have another €6m, €3m of which has been used. Looks like the model of servicing the debt from revs and using the flex is working.

Cash of £4.2m and net debt of £3m is a turnaround from an overall cash position last year but growth has a price. That’s why the guidance would have helped ‘a step change in revenue growth’ still leaves me guessing a bit but that’s the nature of the beast!

The group is confident that they have enough working capital and are looking at acquisitions as well as organic growth. It’s clear the contracts they have delivered have sustainable predictable revenue streams. They are working out their ‘optimal capital base’, I think there has been a bit of an unknown based on so many late stage discussions particularly with the immunoinsights programs.

My translation of ‘optimal capital base’ is we have a lot going on how much does it cost to run bau, service debt and then how much have we got left for our growth program. That’s actually pretty basic management, I think it’s forgivable given the timings, the pace of growth and govt contracts and financing. Doing all what they are doing and cost savings makes me wonder if the team is big enough.

Anyways I don’t see any need for a raise as ops are covered by revenues and a serviceable RCF. If an acquisition opportunity came up then obviously they may come to the market.

As for the operational side of things. The contract, the growth the innovation etc it’s been absolutely outstanding! As always though it comes back to the money and imo they have done well. So many companies would have taken the easy path of dilution. These haven’t. Congratulations on the results

Atm the market thinks otherwise. Fine by me. I will be buying more.

Usual caveats

Trek

Box 8.7. Estimated 6.9 quarters of cash available. That’s plenty to prove up the big one and drill Arya.

They will be working on options on the back of the big one results.

Trek

Worth saying twice!

The battery tech could be v significant, priced in tons of graphene for directa!

He could do with updating the market on mask sales rather than just saying significant.

Not sure if we have a background seller as any sale is NT but could buy when I last looked. They traded through last lock down as part of chemicals sector and many employees could wfh so I don’t think it’s COVID. Also we usually hold up during turbulent markets.

Setcar revs should be financing the business by now + a big cash injection from masks. Would also expect asphalts to benefit soon from government infrastructure spend.

Gosh there are so many shots on goal; come on GC get the PR rolling!

Trek

“Oncimmune Holdings PLC (LON:ONC) said its EarlyCDT lung blood test will be part of a large-scale study in the US to assess its potential use in screening people with low-to-moderate risk lung nodules.

Marketed in the States as Nodify CDT, the Oncimmune technology is being used alongside Nodify XL2 in the clinical assessment being carried out by partner Biodesix.

The ALTITUDE trial will enrol a total of 2,000 with the first batch of 500 expected to be recruited in the first phase.

Oncimmune said researchers wanted to “demonstrate the efficacy” of using the two tests together.

It added that they also wanted to understand the economic impact of the approach in guiding treatment and its potential to reduce healthcare costs.

“Oncimmune is committed to producing further evidence that supports both adoption and reimbursement decisions in the markets where EarlyCDT Lung is available,” said chief executive Adam Hill in a statement

“Part of our agreement with Biodesix in June 2019 was to continue to deliver high-quality evidence in the US market with EarlyCDT Lung.”

He noted that the ALTITUDE study would build on the data presented last week at the American College of Chest Physicians from the PANOPTIC study while contributing to the “substantial evidence base already underpinning the use of our product globally”.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/932558/oncimmune-says-lung-blood-test-part-of-a-clinical-study-assessing-the-screening-potential-of-the-technology-932558.html

Trek

Interesting that they don’t have tech transfer issues, hit S&S and can scale up readily!

There are plenty of other positives though, it’s swab and I guess it’s only 10% of population, together with other tests and Porton Down must be working on the next in line now.

All the indications we have, RNS’s, newsflow, tech transfer, manufacturing contracts etc point to the LFD working but it would be nice to see our results next on the Gov.uk website.

As for all the talk about the cancer treatments, yes it’s great but it’s way off and there are numerous other near term investments in that space with similar upsides and lower market caps.

Imo the those other plays here will only add value when the LFD is out because that’s what will finance them long term. Even BAMS is probably over stated, the key message of BAMS is further affimer affirmation. Yes it’s nice to research but being pragmatic it’s all about the LFD, period.

Trek

The hit today imo is more to do with the second wave meaning the lower end of guidance won’t be hit as the fall is disproportionate to the results.

The low of 1258 looks on now. However, if you believe testing will improve or a vaccine is around the corner then buying here could be catching the bottom with a good solid divi.

It will take a massive hit to knock the divi as it’s well covered. Days of +£16 are a long way off though. Those stuck, self now included gotta hope that 1 / 2 = £15 which it might just do, hence no sense in selling now.

Usual caveats

Trek

Imo they have an idea of grades, hence get the warrants out. If the results are exceptional 4.5p is achievable then hit the accelerator again. Then they have more cash.

The warrants are only dilutive if you don’t add assets. That’s the next step.

Well done Eva buying against the market.

Similarly I picked up some GSK’s. Need some income and I thought the results were ok.

Trek

Yet still ONC sleeps, deal after deal. SP hits 180 and pulls back. I agree with Zack a +180 close could signal a re-rate into the 2’s. The market understandably wants the results out the way first.

From RNS

‘Biodesix has a direct US national sales force who sell direct into pulmonologists and corporately into national hospital systems.’

And notice the size of the trials! Once complete, which shouldn’t t take long if covid doesn’t get in the way, which I don’t think it will in the US then it’s another huge royalty market for ONC. Plus what sells in the US is green lighted for many other jurisdictions.

Also looks like this is being funded entirely by Biodesix!

Sweet!

May even see some other posters working out this little gem soon! While peeps focus on covid tests this one moves below the radar and covid testing for the associated medical effects that we have is a catch all and only a part of the testing we offer!

Shhhhh!

Trek

Hi guys,

EEE drilling results out today, not brilliant grades but good enough to keep proving up. However, for me the key bit is the find. The RC drilling and more importantly the location tech which is the same process that we will use. The finding process has improved significantly over the years. Covid has knocked the appeal of many overseas developers especially bottom of South America, unrest in Azerbaijan/Armenia has put areas including Georgia off limits, could go on but it really adds up that OZ and Canada and a few select others Ghana/Tanzania are very compelling places to invest.

In Oz mining is a vital industry and even during peak lockdown it still allowed travel within state. A miner with good acreage and using local labour in a safe juro could do very well.

Just part of my investment thesis, but I didn’t pick PALM off my list as I thought it was too expensive for where they were. The sp has since soared so wtfdik!

I have taken a small position in ROCK following a tip here and added its data to my excel. I missed that one on my scavenge. Thanks!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Phoebus,

Thank you for you comments. I have since added ROCK to my list and taken a small position there.

EEE results out today, not brilliant grades but for me the key bit is the find. The RC drilling and more importantly the location tech which is the same process that we will use. I don’t hold EEE nor do I hold PALM, I thought PALM was far too expensive for where they are and the sp has soared so wtfdik! Lol!

Anyways here is on a timer, imo they’ll grab it. I will then need to dig through the finances.

Atb

Trek.

Like I have said before....

“PUR is a boring well run growth play that will be throwing of cash as dividends in years to come.”

Who’d wanna be invested in something like that!

Trek

This is great progress so soon after IPO. It’s gonna further prove up the big one. The grades are huge they can’t miss!

Imo the aim here is to prove up farm down then finance Arya. The Aeromags there are bigger again. It’s 400m at one end but cash from the Big one could enable little ccz to prove it.

If they strike at Arya as well then whoever farms into big one will buy us. These projects will require a lot of firepower to bring on line!

If it goes to plan you could see ccz selling for several hundred million and that’d be cheap!

Usual caveats

Trek

The prospectus is on the website under latest reports. I posted a link earlier.

Pretty disappointed with the SP here today. Just a brief pull back to 2.8 which couldn't be bought. I will wait a little longer as have to sell to buy as fully invested. I top sliced some SGZ to add here, so you see the complications!

Took around 3 years for GGP to go from this stage to where we they are now. I am hoping for a big rise there to sell half as lots of opportunities Atm.

Atb

Trek

Dear Xxxxxx,

I am pleased to provide you an update on the progress of the Virolens Covid-19 screening device.

KeyOptions continues to work closely with the manufacturer to develop the go to market model for the APAC, LATAM and MENA territories.

Due to some Virolens pre-production machine modifications, there has been approximately a 3 week delay in machines being shipped to early customers. Virolens pre-production machines are expected to commence shipping ex works in the UK this week, with full production machines being available in early November.

European CE certifications have been awarded effective last week and clinical trials are currently underway around the world.

KeyOptions will be reaching out to you this week, to further advance discussions on potentially partnering on the Virolens solution in your markets.

Thank you for your patience, I know we all want to see a solution to market as soon as possible.

Regards,

KeyOptions - Virolens® team”

Trek

It’s going to get very interesting here. This is just the first accelerator.

Imo We will end up 5p with the cash at some point. Just gonna be a little bumpy as things churn through. Any dips and I am selling elsewhere to buy!

Richy, spot on mate I got the same numbers in mind 1m = 10p.

Trek

The dilution is pretty interesting here. The strike price of 4.5p adds a completely new dimension. It’s a safeguard against shorting 2.3p options or forward selling. Cutting nose to spite ones face! The market will soon cotton onto the math here as there are other ways of viewing it as opposed to just more shares.

Macap £6m = 3p. A penny for £2m

40% extra shares fully diluted but we get £4m (Page 70) coming our way.

So a case for £10m MCAP (6m mcap + 4m cash ) or 5p can very easily be made. Sure some is probably in the price but you get the picture. The cash will feed into the sp so it’s not dilutive in terms of down from 3p by 40%, it adds 40%. Stats and damn stats!

Obviously asset addition needs to be in place to trigger the options through increased sp but you can quickly see how 40% dilution doesn’t look so bad for a lowly mcap.

If we prove a few ounces this will really motor and no shenanigans will be able to stop it breaking through 5p very quickly in the assets add more than the cash. That’s likely first base!

Then we raise again to prove up more resource and work towards production or JV using the same principles.

This is my point on early posts about getting in below 4.5p; if the campaign delivers, which is why we are here, then just on the financial structure the entry sp gets a buffer before the, hopefully, bigger paydays.

Hope that makes sense!

Usual caveats.

Trek

Key bits?
XV para 9

TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF THE CLNS
The CLNs are convertible into Ordinary Shares at a conversion price of 2.3 pence per Ordinary Shares. The CLNs are convertible, at the election of the Company, on the Company publishing this prospectus in order to allow the Ordinary Shares into which the CLNs convert to be admitted to a Standard Listing on the Official List and trading on the Main Market for listed securities of the London Stock Exchange.

Para 8.7

The New Warrants
The New Warrants are constituted by, and issued subject to and with the benefit of, the New Warrant Instrumented which is dated 23 October 2020 and is executed as a deed poll by the Company. The exercise price of the New Warrants is 3 pence per Ordinary Share and the New Warrants may be exercised at any time from the date of this prospectus up to and including 26 October 2022 (the “Exercise Period”).
If at any time the price of the Ordinary Shares on the London Stock Exchange exceeds 4.5 pence on a VWAP basis for 5 or more consecutive trading days the Company may issue an announcement to the holders of a shortening of the exercise period and any New Warrants not exercised within 21 business days of such notice shall immediately lapse...

Pages 71-74 give more detail....

Fully diluted capital... page 70

Accordingly, at Admission the Enlarged Issued Share Capital will be 262,375,617
If all the outstanding Existing Warrants, the New Warrants and the Options were to be exercised, the Company would receive approximately £4,387,355 in cash and would represent 40.40 per cent. of the Enlarged Issued Share Capital....

Summary of subscription page 74...

.....the Company’s agents, procured subscriptions for 1,500,000 CLNs, which convert into CLN Shares on the date of this prospectus at a conversion price of 2.3 pence per Ordinary Share, in accordance with the terms of the CLN Instrument. The CLNs were issued on 13 August 2020 to existing shareholders of the Company and new professional investors.... All CLNs constituted by the CLN Instrument have been issued.
The 65,217,391 CLN Shares issued on the conversion of the CLNs will represent approximately 24.86 per cent. of the Enlarged Issued Share Capital of the Company on Admission.
The New Ordinary Shares will, upon issue, rank pari passu with the Ordinary Shares.
The Net Subscription Proceeds, after deduction of expenses, will be £1,375,000 on the basis that the Gross Subscription Proceeds are £1,500,000. The proceeds from the Subscription may eventually rise by a further £2,020,435 in the event that all New Warrants are exercised.
In accordance with Listing Rule 14.2.2, at Admission at least 25 per cent. of the Ordinary Shares will be in public hands (as defined in the Listing Rules) upon Admission.

Could the plan be prospectus, drilling news +4.5p over 5 day VWAP and we get another £2m?

https://w32.3eb.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/c117157CCL.pdf

Trek

No not dandruff, the chart. Look at the 3 month, top of page, it’s a thing of beauty!

“The head and shoulders patterns are statistically the most accurate of the price action patterns, reaching their projected target almost 85% of the time. The regular head and shoulders pattern is defined by two swing highs (the shoulders) with a higher high (the head) between them. ”

What follows is a break of the neckline can be up or down and today has sent us clearly up!

Imo this will be attacking the previous highs pretty soon. An upswing from here is 85% likely based on TA.

https://samuraitradingacademy.com/7-best-price-action-patterns/

Usual caveats,

Trek

Just digging around Oz LSE Smallcap miners, a very brief summary. Scores are my view only. Does anyone have any others?

All funded but will need to raise again to progress assets.

COBR, Cobra Resources, £6m, 3.1p 5/5. drilling now. 4 x IOCG targets at Wudinna, SA, also Prince Albert Copper in WA. Both have inferred resources from previous exploration. Funded by cash and warrants. Buying sub 4.5p is imo a bargain.

THR, Thor mining, £13m 1.1p 4/5. Awaiting assay results and aeromag interpretations for 100% owned Ragged Range. Have gold in pan, need to narrow down drill targets. Also other Tungsten/Gold/copper plays in Oz and acreage in USA. Just placed, Metal Tiger holder.

CCZ, Castillo Copper, £27m 2.6p 4/5. recently IPO’d, funded. Mostly copper, nickel, zinc maybe gold. All Oz. Excellent Geo at Mt Oxide, about to drill, Arya, a huge anomaly and the Big One, supergene Cu deposits. Also Zambia.

ECR, ECR minerals, £17m 2.8p 5/5, Copper gold, rig arrives Oct to drill Creswick & Balieston. 100% owned in Victoria. Tambo gold licenses in Eastern Victoria. Just raised July, JV likely. Awesome postcode, Newmont next door! Also Philippines & Argentina. Alan Green’s stock pick.

Empire Metals, EEE, £11m, 3.4p 3/5 drilling Eclipse & Houdini project in WA. Soil samples have identified two more gold targets. Just placed in Sept. PGE JV with Artemis, legals, Oz. 50% JV in Georgia Cu/Au assets some licenses pending, legals. I don’t hold

Wishbone Gold, WSBN, £9m, 7.3p 4/5, investor just bought 3%, funded following restructuring has 45 day option on Paterson Range assets near GGP Haveirion acreage. Also Wishbone 2, mine nearby 2km sold for $300m and White Mountain in Queensland. Cashed up and 94% of warrants exercised at 3p. Have contracted Terra Search, local so no covid issues to drill by end of year.

Panther Metals, PALM, £6m, 12p 2/5. Listed on main market and only has 56m shares in issue. Main market rules restrict annual dilution to 20% but that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t dilute and re-list on AIM. Assets in Canada, ‘big bear’ & ‘dotted lake’ doing aeromags. Acreage in Northern Territories Oz, desktop, could be good. Financed. Early stage, expensive atm. I don’t hold.

Gunsynd, GUN, £3m, 1.01p - invests in oil/gas/ holds some Oz junior miners etc. Not for me.

GGP 5/5 enough said!

Not in Oz but my biggest holdings are GRL, SGZ, PUR and SHG on my buy list.

Usual caveats,

Trek