Member Info for TrekMadone

There was a reason these hit 29p a while back on heavy volumes. Perhaps we’ll soon find out why.

Trek

BPC have met all legal compliance. It’s almost like trying to stop Brexit now after it’s been approved by parliament.

This from 25th Sept...

NASSAU, BAHAMAS — Minister of Environment Romauld Ferriera advised yesterday that all environmental clearances have been issued to Bahamas Petroleum Company for its exploratory oil drilling in the country.

During a press conference on his ministry’s work, Ferriera said the project is expected to start drilling in the first quarter of 2021.

BPC had announced in May that it had pegged December 15 as the start date for its exploratory oil drilling in The Bahamas.

BPC received formal notification from the government in February to proceed with plans to drill exploratory oil wells before the end of 2020.

The company was initially granted the license for exploratory oil drilling in 2007 and subsequently got two renewals under the Christie administration.

The company has four licenses in the territorial waters of The Bahamas.

A petition was launched two months ago by Our Islands Our Future to “Help save The Bahamas from oil drilling”.

The petition continues to receive support reaching nearly 12,000 signatures towards its 15,000 signature goal, as of yesterday.

“Prime Minister Hubert Minnis has one last chance to protect our nation’s economy and precious natural resources from the devastating ravages of oil pollution before it is too late,” it reads.

“We ask you to join us in this urgent petition asking the Prime Minister to cancel all existing oil exploration licenses, reject all proposed renewals and impose a permanent ban on fossil fuel exploration anywhere within our maritime borders.

“The critical threat posed by oil drilling to our world-renowned oceans, reefs and beaches cannot be exaggerated.”

A group of US representatives have also expressed their opposition to BPC’s oil exploration efforts and have been seeking to dissuade the Bahamian government from authorizing exploratory drilling.

Key concerns were penned in an April 17th letter to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Stephanie Bowers the Chargé d’Affaires at the US Embassy in Nassau by Congresswomen Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell along with several other representatives.

The local and international environmental community have also called on the government to respond to the Congress members’ letter promptly and to immediately revoke the exploratory license granted to BPC.

When asked about promises made to the environmental community early on in his tenure as minister, Ferreira said, “We did meet and we did say there were no new licenses issued. That was the crux of the meeting.

“This isn’t a new license. It’s a continuation of an existing license and we were advised by our attorneys at the office of the attorney general that this arrangement had to be honored.”

https://ewnews.com/bpc-issued-all-environmental-clearances-drilling-now-set-for-2021

Trek

Interesting,

“The obvious irony is that the Amended Writ alleges that Fred has conducted himself in such a manner that is the exact opposite of the environmental conservation ideology perpetuated by the Save The Bays organization and Louis Bacon. Again, it does not appear at this time that Fred obtained the appropriate authorization for his conduct, therefore it is upon Plaintiff’s information and belief that Fred has acted and continues to act in contravention of the Conservation and Protection of the Physical Landscape of The Bahamas Act, 1997 and may be liable for all consequences resulting from that breach.”

I couldn’t see a date on the article though.

Trek

Yep that’s right RKH, middle of nowhere infrastructure wise and as for legals well the Bahamas is preferable on all fronts.

The RKH news marks a change in sentiment and recognition that majors have not been replacing reserves. With Moderna vax news requesting FDA emergency use also out, things will turn from a low point for oil. If you haven’t been exploring you just snap up reserves by other means.

“Bahamas Petroleum
BPC has signed the Goudron EPSC in Trinidad and will issue 36m new shares as expected as the new contract replaces the existing one due to expire at the end of 2020. The terms of the EPSC are ‘largely consistent’ with the terms that previously prevailed under the existing Goudron Production Sharing Contract and production from Goudron currently accounts for approximately 40% of BPC’s baseline daily production in Trinidad and Tobago.

Rockhopper Exploration
RKH has announced that the Sea Lion farm-in by Navitas is still on and following the announcement of the proposed merger of Premier and Chrysaor, Navitas has confirmed that it remains committed to the proposed farm-in.

In order to enable the merger to complete and the new management of the combined entity to make a firm decision on the Sea Lion project, Rockhopper, Premier and Navitas have ‘agreed to extend the exclusivity period for the farm-in to the earlier of (i) 30 September 2021; (ii) the execution of definitive transaction documents, or (iii) a decision by Navitas not to proceed with the farm-in. During this period, Rockhopper’s share of Sea Lion project costs will continue to be borne by Premier under the same terms as previously announced’.”

Usual caveats

Trek

Agree, injunction talk is derampers. The govt would be liable for compensation on a grand scale and it would send a message to the world that the Bahamas are closed to business just at the worse time!

I also topped up 244513, it’s the time to by when others fear. Hopefully the CPR will generate some ii interest when it arrives.

Trek

Business speak has its own colloquialisms a bit like politics.

“Clarification is not to clarify things. It is to put one’s self in the clear (Sir Humphrey Appleby)”

Hope that helps.

Trek

Never doesn’t mean never. They didn’t say they’d accelerate phase 2 like this. Once phase 2 is running and if POG goes where we think then never will be never at this time but not necessarily in the future.

Trek

Well put Phijeer,

This is not new news, it’s confirmation. It should be positive as it’s a revenue stream. But it’s the problem you get being in a share with so many ill informed, easily misled skittish PI’s. It really drives volatility and others play on that.

Has it’s benefits though, as you can find occasions to trade a few to pick up extra shares.

Trek

Quite a timely raise. Means phase two is full paid using raises and phase 1. That means next steps could be dividends and/or mine/project expansion. NPV of £96m with a standard 8% discount and I doubt wether we’d pay much tax yet gives plenty of room for sp rise. £178m Ebitda over Lom probably well understated. Step outs will no doubt increase that and we may get lift from POG.

“Subsequent to the reporting period, in October 2020 the Company reviewed this timing of Phase 2 and elected to accelerate the development of Phase 2, such that it is now expected to be completed in May 2022 and will be funded by a combination of £2.5M of the new equity raised in October 2020 and funds generated internally over the shortened Phase 1 operating period.”

Trek

Interesting that we are being asked to vote for issue of equity and without preemptive rights. It doesn’t necessarily mean a placing but it’s an instrument that will be available for the BoD in the event of opportunities such as acquisition, trials etc

Trek

Actually volume isn’t rising yet. I reckon Monday it will. Look at the data...

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/COBR/cobra-resources-plc/trade-recap

Note the 20th Oct volume. That also coincided its the SP high. See chart.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/COBRA-RESOURCES-PLC-56171609/charts/

3.5p was the SP high. Also note when you look at the chart from market screener it doesn’t take a top chartist to recognise the strong uptrend. Sure if you bought at 3.5 it may not feel like it yet.

As for chart naysayers, I’m not interested. Institutions spend a fortune on them. It’s just more data, it shows where we were and where we are likely to go and should be used as part of a wider toolkit. Ignore data at one’s peril!

So what happened on the 20th Oct....

RNS...Cobra Resources “announces that it has received notice of exercise of 3,250,000 warrants to acquire 3,250,000 shares at a price of 2p per share (the "New Shares").”

Interesting. The SP went up on the announcement and then drifted thereafter but conversion aside the volumes have been low, only a few days +£200k.

Back to the chart. We are actually at a critical point. The 20DMA is sat right on top of the 50DMA. It needs to kiss now and move back up otherwise it could start a downtrend.

That’s the chart. But we have news to help. Drill result, warrant conversion. Just the kick we need for that kiss to bounce off and continue on trend.

Going to be really interesting week to look forward to. Just be careful not to chase that spike. Look at how many there have been in the past. History doesn’t always repeat but I think we’ll get a double lift next week before establishing a new trading range.

If anyone wants to sell a spike may provide a good exit opportunity but too risky as a trade back in coz the spread may kill traders.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see us get to a whisker of 4p next week and settle at 3.5. Gosh I hate making projections. Much rather orate and cover all bases! Still where’s the fun in that! Looks like I could be providing the fun now!

Usual caveats

Trek

“Hi, can somebody explain how all this works like I’m a child? Upstream, downstream, how the sale of gas works etc. Newbie to this type of investment. Many thanks”

Here you go Bully,

Welcome to TXP.

This vid covers upstream, midstream and downstream in 3 mins with pictures. You should be ok! There is also loads of other stuff on the tube if you type in oil 101, it covers gas as well.

As for gas sales we will sell wholesale to a NGC, they sell on to business and EU’s.

Enjoy!

https://youtu.be/6ozmKhahk8M

Trek

It will soon do a complete 180 when people realise that the imminent price differentials brokered between NGC and TXP will hit offshore producers like Shell.

It will soon be in plain sight. Shell will be forced to takeout TXP. Unfortunately others will soon have the same idea!

They all just don’t know it yet, but we do!

Trek

Only the early 2p ones

Trek

NP, but remember BHA will more likely JV soon. The upside here is way to much for CCZ to go alone...

> With a significant pipeline of exploration targets across the tenement package, BHA is seeking strategic development partners to advance the project.

https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/CCZ/02223315.pdf

This one is so under the radar. A JV would light it right up but is dependent on the proving up of the big one. Assay results anytime soon and still 28 more drills.

The drill should push the sp well north of here. CCZ then have options. They can now raise an extra 10%, sell the big one cashed up for Arya or JV.

I reckon they JV a huge % of the big one and let the partner develop it. Just take some cash and a % royalty retainer.

But whatever, you can see lots of options all could be worth well north of £27m mcap.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi DTM,

I did it on an earlier post. There will be a string of RNS’s today and Monday. We will then know for sure close on Tuesday if any got burnt.

Trek

‘3: Approval of Additional 10% Placement Facility’

It’s a facility, not a placing. For sure there will be a placing. Probably after results. It’s how the company will develop. If you find more you need more to develop it.

Trek

Yes you wouldn’t think so. I mean hardly any rush of buyers. Seems odd. Perhaps traders loaded up in advance. I was hoping the placing would have washed through on the run up to it.

Looks like I’ve run out of guesses with this one!

Still enjoy the BB.

Back to off topic!

Trek

I added 150k, 2.74. Just had some funds from a sell elsewhere. Spread is awful! But SP ticked up after one buy! I just think sub 3p will time out soon.

Trek

Here is another link. It’s not conclusive. I have written to Adam to ask.

“the test is not currently that good at picking up stage I cancer, where it is small and hasn’t spread to other parts of the body. ”

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-announcement-of-a-new-nhs-pilot-on-a-blood-test-for-more-than-50-cancers/?cli_action=1606466268.06

Trek