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Interesting RNS there today, I used to be a holder.

Extract...

“The Test to Release scheme is a UK Government backed programme, designed to reduce quarantine periods for travellers arriving in the UK. The Group is waiting for the government website to be updated to reflect this in due course. Through the Test to Release scheme, passengers have the opportunity to pay for a COVID-19 test through the list of approved private providers, to find out if they are able to reduce the self-isolation period after international travel. Yourgene Genomic Services has the full COVID-19 testing service offering required to meet the Department of Health & Social Care's 15 minimum standards*. Yourgene will go live with the Test to Release scheme in early January 2021 but the general coronavirus testing offering is already live.

Following the announcement of a new virulent strain of SARS-CoV-2 by the UK's COVID-19 Genomics UK consortium, known as VUI-202012/01, Yourgene has conducted preliminary in silico (computer) analysis of the mutations in this new variant to assess the reliability of the Company's existing Clarigene® product. Unlike some other tests on the market, the Clarigene® SARS-CoV-2 assay does not rely on amplification of the S gene, where one of the key VUI-202012/01 variants (N501Y) is located and the results of the in silico analysis suggest that the performance of the Clarigene® assay will be unaffected by these mutations in VUI-202012/01. For further customer assurance the Company is conducting additional 'wet lab' testing to confirm the in silico findings.”

Trek

To go into production we will need cash. Can’t get away from that. So I guess it’s a question around how you go about it. We’ll thankfully not all the money is needed in one hit.

ECR are also in a very unique position to have two sought after areas which opens more possibilities + they have bid for other licenses.

For the moment cash is not an issue, but that is the time to raise or at least have a plan to do so.

FWIW I think they will initially plan to farm down Creswick to get the SP up. A different type of dilution as it means relinquishing some assets. But hypothetically if they can keep 25% of Creswick on a 100% free carry surely that would result in a transferral of the asset value to the sp value over a period of time. We can’t have it all ways. A JV partner would want the option for a significant portion of the acreage. Keeping 25% is very optimistic and more for illustration.

A higher SP gives existing shareholders a cushion from dilution and you get more cash/share meaning less shares are needed for the same amount of coin.

Add into that the drilling on Bailieston. If we do get good grades. There are then other options including RBL, equity raise or my preference a rights issue for existing holders to provide finance. Or another JV, this time with ECR having a higher % and sharing funding. Or of course they can go to the market for cash for equity. And the usual combination of these and many other options.

The more you think it through the more significant winning additional licenses become. It gives more optionality.

Another route to cash is to sell non core assets, Philippines and Argentina. I don’t know how much we’d get for Danglay and La Rioja but it’s yet another option.

Appreciate I haven’t tied any numbers to the alternatives but what you can see is there are many routes. So much so that raising cash would not be a problem. Because of that we could drive a better deal. It’s just going to be a minefield to work out which is the best deal for shareholders.

Just another moot point with having extra shares. If the business plan is executed well and say in 3-4 years time we are producing. You can buy them back!

Furthermore on dilution. If we JV and you get that Asset to SP transferral and say the SP reaches 8p. Holders now can sell half. I.e take out their stake money. Now what impact is dilution on a free carry? Or of course investors may wish to ride for longer.

Most of these options stem from having not one but two top quality landmarks. It’s another factor that sets ECR apart from other small cap miners. The significance of which is often overlooked or not understood by investors.

Gosh this is so exciting and great debate!

Usual caveats.

Trek

“My question is this - are these errors due to the LSE software, the mm's, the London Stock Exchange system or some other factor?”

Any spread of over an arbitrary 3% is pretty useless for gauging buys and sells. The LSE algorithm used on this page only gauges a buy or sell according to if the trade was above or below the mid point at the time it ran.

So here are some facts.

# The published trades here can be 15mins late.
# If the spread is wide, there is no way of knowing what side of the mid point the trade was.
# If a sp falls quickly sells will look like buys as by the time the algorithm runs it puts a sell above the mid point and shows it as a buy.
# If a sp rises quickly a buy will look like a sell as by the time the algorithm runs it will be below the mid point so the buy looks like a sell.

# Furthermore with a wide spread you may find some MM’s are so far apart from the mid point so how do you know if it’s a buy or sell.?

# If you use interactive investor you may get a prompt, we have improved your order by £162 so your buy may look like a sell when published as there was one MM with a better book.

# or the stock may be illiquid and there is only 1 MM with the min so they push the spread out, I have seen 40% spreads on AIM, to deter trades. See volume and liquidity are key to gauging value.

I hope that explains some of the myths. But what difference does it make.

For every buy there is at some point a sell, why do you think the London Stock Exchange don't say buy or sell. It’s just a trade to them. It’s just the aggressors price that is published. I.e the trade instigator. The simplest way to gauge the buy/sell demand is the SP trajectory, the volume, and the chart candles. So if going up then overall they are being bought. The shares are overall in demand.

Now amongst that you do get MM schemes, often ALGO driven or granted more ‘Machiavellian’ behaviour if there are just a few MM’s holding a book and usually in low volumes to create liquidity but they have to follow the MiFid rules and post a scheme. But that is not the case here with often 6 books and reasonable volume, atm.

Definition: market making incentive schemes that the Exchange is mandated to offer under Article 48(2)(b) of MiFID and Article 1 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/578

Page 58 covers it and also ALGO trades. Worth learning the offside rule before you play footy because you can be sure the MM knows all the rules! ATB.

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/rules-lse.pdf

Hope that helps.

Trek

Richard Beddard

The trouble with providing a tip for 2021 is that I have no idea what the defining events of the year will be, just as I had no idea what would characterise 2020.

Bottom-up investors, those who study businesses rather than themes and trends, must necessarily take a longer-term perspective because it takes longer than a year for corporate strategies to play out and for traders to take notice. I give my investments ten years at least, but one that might deliver more quickly is D4t4 (Aim: D4T4).

If you squint, the name looks a bit like DAtA, which is what D4T4 is all about. The company owns Celebrus, software that captures data from digital interactions with customers so that a company’s systems can interact in real time – to make a sale or intercept a fraud, for example. The software is patented. According to D4t4 it is uniquely flexible and at the vanguard of customer-data capture. Most of the companies that currently use it are involved in finance, but it may attract a much wider customer base.

D4t4 has the potential to be a substantially bigger business if e-commerce develops in the way the company expects, but there are many ways promising technologies fail to grow out of their niches. D4t4 is not just a jam-tomorrow stock, however; it is a highly profitable firm today. Revenue will fall this year because customers increasingly choose to buy the software as a service, paying an annual fee instead of a larger one-off licence fee.

In exchange for lower income immediately, D4t4 is winning recurring revenue and the company should begin growing total sales again as new recurring revenues build up.

Churn, the company says, is almost non-existent, but customers often extend their usage once they have seen what the software can do. A share price of 250p values the enterprise at about 17 times last year’s adjusted profit and 27 times forecast profit for the year to 31 March 2021.

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=D4T4&share=D4t4-Solutions&thread=8102E042-CD87-43F8-BEDB-CE9681E2C98A&reply=true

Thanks for the spot...

Trek

“Am I reading the RNS correctly? The dilution or share give away funding has also cost us £850,000 in advisory fees?”

Yes Cars, correct and those shares are the ones probably being traded now at +2.3p. As it’s fees you would bank some of them just to be sure....

14th Dec RNS....

“Consequently, the Company is issuing 37,500,000 ordinary shares in settlement of cash fees otherwise payable (the "Adviser Fee Shares").

Application will be made for the 412,500,000 ordinary shares issued under the Funding Agreement and the Adviser Fee Shares to be admitted to trading on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange ("AIM") and it is expected that admission will take place, and trading in those ordinary shares will commence from 8:00am on 17 December 2020 ("Admission").”

I have taken my eye off here as I would normally have sold and tried to buy back lower but I am kinda thinking wtf. There will be another opportunity when the JR is kicked into touch + I really want to be in with a reasonable amount when they reach TD. So sitting on my hands for now.

Each day eats away at the drilled meters.

I also expect BPC to grab the rest of the cash, extra $5m and 1798 to then double up especially if we stay above 2.3p. A drill is an unknown. They will take the money now...be silly not to!

“BPC has an option, at its sole discretion, to raise up to a further £3.75 million (US$5 million) from the Investor within 10 business days after the spud of the Perseverance #1 well on substantially the same terms; if BPC so elects, the Investor has the option to double that amount, thereby providing BPC discretionary access to the full £15 million (US$20 million)”

So given that this has basically not gone to anyone’s plans, I.e a run up to spud and an increase after finance. It’ll probably go up on the next RNS which will fall nicely in the obscure Christmas week! Probably due to the financiers being on holiday!

It’s really now moved even from a traders share to just a binary bet! Lol!

And I am actually quite excited. 2.3p to 9/12p is the same as 2p, 3p, 4p etc to 9/12p. It’s just that we all prefer a steady climb rather that what looks like could be a later rush from here. 10 years in the making down to weeks of waiting now.

Usual caveats

Trek

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