Member Info for TrekMadone

“Touchstone has suffered unduly in ratings terms after an incredible start to its drilling campaign in the Ortoire Block in Trinidad. It was as if the market thought that they could go through an extensive drilling campaign without a dry hole although the total project has been an unqualified success. Whatever Royston brings you could double the share price back to the previous high and it would still be a cheap share.”

https://www.malcysblog.com/2021/08/oil-price-touchstone-prospex-block-trinity-and-finally/

Trek

Hi Livedataacount,

Thank you so much for the link. The first one I drilled back to here...

https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xlsx

I use the FCA page quite regularly and never knew that page existed! Well done you!

Thanks again.

Trek

Why is that then?

Trek

No ticks for this post....poo poo..

“Porphyry systems are rare finds and we sitting on one”

We don’t know that yet!

“ Can see a crack at 80p over next week or so. If broken I can see another plateau about £1-£1.10.”

IMO? I do know my TA and would offer more detail to support such an opinion.

“This is definitely being held down, imho I can see exactly what is going to happen here, its going to fly up, it's so blatantly clear!”

Sp you have previously posted some good points but come on, ‘definitely’ that is and the play off with imo. You are better than that!

I could go on. I now have a significant (for me) position here and want to build this into a major lth but honestly guys let’s temper the ramping. The best way to ramp is opinion based on data. There is so much excellent data here especially with the previous mines and even macro. BB’s can be a great place of supplementary research and opinion.

I have just posted some hard yards on HE1 after a spell of absence as it’s got to +200 posts a day of nonsense . As one of the early investors there I only bother now after an RNS or other news.

Positivity is great but let’s not make this just a ramp fest!

All said it’s a free country. I will just use the filter and report options!

Good luck with your investments.

Trek

Hi scardy-cat,

You did well digging this one out. I have struggled with finding a decent short tracker and even in this site if you click on the GB flag and type in AVCT it doesn’t come up nor does AVCT appear on the all open positions page.

I look at the short tracker site which shows AvCT has gone up .11% with JIM. But I still wouldn’t rec this site as a catch all.

https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/

I have also tried the Euroclears site, nightmare!

Anyways if any PI has a good short tracker site and can kindly post that it would be appreciated. I have looked at pay sites and silly money!

TIA

Trek

Ha Kainos, I am banking this is the ‘dark horse!’

Hi Nolupus,,

No updates - there are none. De facto anything market sensitive has to be RNS’d. Then there is RNS reach. That’s a non market sensitive update on the same media. It’s use is open for interpretation. TB has deemed nothing to update.

I am seldom surprised. Like you I am battle hardened but I don’t think he is deliberately allowing the SP to slide. I think that is a consequence of another action.

Imo we are for sale.

TB has a pf to handover to his inheritor and will cash in his ‘dark horse’. He is just getting it ready. I expect some timely news soon.

Love him or loathe him he has a winning formula, a clarity of thought and purpose. A typical single minded entrepreneur. You only have to read some posts here to recognise that!

Love and money? No love just money!

Trek

Which investment has averaged 12.3% a year for sixteen years?

Which historically did better Warren or Gold?

I am surprised and I love data!

https://www.lse.co.uk/blogs/expert/which-investment-has-averaged-123-a-year-for-sixteen-years.html

And what’s better than gold? I’d say a leveraged play on the pm with production and expo upside in a safe juro. I am amazed how quiet this BB is. I’d have thought at this price the bargain hunters would have sniffed us out!

I picked PUR amongst a few others. I am 100% confident it will come very good!

Oh and how expensive are commodities comparatively atm. About the cheapest ever!

https://www.mining.com/120-year-chart-shows-commodities-have-never-been-this-undervalued/

Nerd Trek! Lol!

Hi Noob,

As I see it as some bits get lost in translation.

1a. Test Tai, with what we have so far in shallow depths - I’d assumed they’d do that anyway. Report to market but don’t redrill the Karoo.

1b. Only redrill the Karoo if it’s on a risk shared basis with Mitchell’s and they bring a proposed solution to Karoo. As far as I am concerned they owe us. So they shoulder a high percentage of costs/we only pay on success with an equity option mix etc

2. Simultaneously, well in reality the next target will be ‘on the shelf’ but go for a red sandstone dominated shallower target.

3. Raise £5-6m before TD on point 2 above. That secures an extended campaign whilst we are all on site. New terms with Mitchell’s.

4. Obviously depends on 1-3 but I would try and shoot the 3D’s earlier. The enhanced 2D’s gave us Tai which imo is much better news than is in the SP. The 3D’s will help delineate other targets and help the campaign CoS. At least for drills 4 onwards as we now have cash for 7/8 drills in total.

5. If we find Helium in Tai or drill 2 or 3. Go straight to appraisal. Then DM can buy in the modular production earlier as prices are rising.

6 having raised to get us to 7/8 drills the next plavcing would be a significant £55-£65m for production but then the SP will be in the pounds and we will be discussing dividend payments! Lol!

6 Fall back is a farm in. That really is plan Z. We want to keep 100%. Dilution is always a factor with resource companies it comes via equity dilution OR asset dilution. So need to avoid even if it gives a short term sp lift.

DM gotta box clever and so do investors!

He has some really tough decisions to make now and I for one am really excited to see how this plays out.

Usual caveats

Trek

£5

2.simult

Hi IPhone,

Well done you! I grabbed a few as well!

I would say now we have that 195 close we will see TA traders piling in. Thing is though, hardly anyone has heard of us! Lol!

That may change soon and we should have a nice cushion and can watch from the sidelines!

Trek

Hi Glib,

‘ I think they are quite a bit off from needing to look at extra funds, but you may be right. I wouldn't complain about them doing so after a discovery. :o)’

Good POV. You only get ticks from ‘grown ups’ when you talk constructively about cash. Many investors have their heads in the sand.

For me, I raise a small amount prior to TD on our next well, not including Tai whatever happens there.

If you have a discovery then absolutely easy money anywhere. But if you don’t and have two wells that may not be commercial then what.

The deciding factor is the amount. We are only talking £5-6m for working capital and like 3 more wells if Mitchell’s stay on site. So you raise at say 70p after an appraisal or if it’s a miss you raise at say, or run the risk of, 4p or even lower and tougher terms.

Raising say £6m at 4p is a bigger % mcap wise than going early and raising at say 20p which may be a small discount to the SP with a result due.

If you then have a discovery the money can be readily spent on development. £6m dilution on what would likely be north of 70p after a strike is very little.

The numbers aren’t important it’s the principle and thought process if you get my drift.

Like I say many investors don’t factor these things into their decision process and are then surprised when it happens and **** the BoD off in response!

Raising funds is one of the reasons for listing. It’s the timing and what you do with it that matters.

I think DM after the last placing has a good handle on it.

Usual caveats

Trek

£5

Hi Aussie,

It’s a missing link. For sure they will test all they can and grab as much data but as for venturing back into the Karoo. Without some significant changes it will imo yield the same result. At least the risk of the same result is high enough that you would have to be sure before burning another drill on it.

We know the helium comes from the decomposition of Uranium and Thorium over billions of years. It doesn’t just sit in mud as some here seem to think. So yes there is a source for the fizz. The seismics show the trap. The data gave us the seal depth. It’s there.

As far as I can GUESS we don’t have the gear to drill it with any degree of surety.

What may help is if Mitchell’s share some risk. A free drill with payment only on a successful completion or a 20% cost + a few shares etc. You get the picture. That would certainly focus their efforts!

There are loads of permutations and one has to keep an open mind here but repeating the same thing and expecting a different result is not smart. I do it too often on the golf course! Lol!

It seems that DM does tell the market the whole truth albeit, and understandably, he holds some stuff back a little while before it comes out. He has proven to be an able problem solver and can do deals.

I like his charisma and positivity and don’t mistake that for ramping as he qualifies appropriately. For sure I feel sorry for anyone underwater here or in any investment but this story has just started!

I like the constructive and critical debate long and short. Just a pity the BB disintegrates here like many others.

Anyways the next steps will be very interesting.

Trek

£5

Hi Aussie,

Any results from the sandstone would be key. I doubt it would be a commercial reservoir though but the data would be significant when drilling another basement.

Hi legal,

I take your point but unless they can change the bit on the rig, reduce the mud weight which may need a different set up they will run the risk of the same washout again.

Some of it could be mitigated by going at a different speed. Ironically slowing down having lost the last drill probably exacerbated the washout.

I think if they told the market they are coming back to Tai after the 3d’s and/or with a different rig or set up the market would get it. What we really don’t want is to loose another drill or miss another wireline on Tai.

We have finances for 2/3 more drills. I think the market will be ok with another target.

I also think they will raise cash near the end of the second drill. At least to give them 2 more additional drills. Absolutely they do NOT need cash for the 3/4 drill campaign but what you don't do is spend your money and then ask for more or come to the market on the back of two missed drills. That’s just what I would do, not necessarily DM.

Get the SP up past 20p again. They already have a narrative, add into that any shows from the second drill and a promise to revisit Tai.

A fallback is always a % farm in in exchange for a number of funded drills. That would IMO rocket the SP. We don’t need 100% to get rich. However, to get the best terms we’d need a discovery. If we have a discovery we don’t need a farm in! So imo that would only be a last fall back position.

So we have lots of options. Money is not a problem now and I don’t see finance being a problem in the future. We have a working helium system. Imo we will crack this soon.

Trek

£5

I liked the honesty in the Directors talk interview. It reaffirms my view as posted earlier that they should move on.......

“There is a lot to reflect on BEFORE they announce what the next steps are. Do they stay and drill Tai again or do they move on. There are 3 different trap styles in Rukwa; half-graben faulting, rollovers and tilted fault blocks. We have 2 other exploration opportunities and may be a 3rd.

My preference is they move. TAI has proven its worth in terms of ‘must drill’ but the Karoo sands with the steep dip has been complex. Unfortunately Eyasi & Lake BalangidaImo are not as advanced. They are the traditional salt seals that many here wanted to drill first but we are where we are.

My opinion is park Tai and go for another lake bed play, a ‘simple’ 3 way dip against the main basement fault that is red sandstone dominated. Given we only have 2D this should be less problematic.

There are no guarantees, but certainly drilling TAI at this stage with this rig & the very challenging geology may yield the same results. ‘Bag an easier target’ that avoids the Karoo and come back to TAI after the 3D’s.”

The Karoo is too problematic for this drill, from what he said in the interview I have no confidence that the same drill at Tai would give a different result. Time is money. Pick a different target that is predominantly red sandstone, there are some in Rukwa and move on.

They can then in tandem review the data from Tai, and decide if they can deal with the Karoo with a different rig, wait for 3D’s or both.

Usual caveats

Trek

£5

Fair point Nolupus,

I am aware of the CLN’s but they have resulted in a net cash balance to TB.

Our last RNS was over 2 months again now. For sure the US hospitals may have had other priorities with covid again but where are we with the Phase1. Too many known unknowns here.

Imo the absolute lack of news points to a sell. I can’t think of any other reason why news would be held back other than CBA’d which is not in TB’s dna.

Here’s hoping, as I have little else to go on, that there will be a decent update soon.

Trek

I think it’s the ops update. It’s still results end of this month and coho September. I am pleased the finances are in order. The rest will happen. For me that’s the biggy.

I doubt they will need the loan but it’s there should coho drag on another month.

Regarding the shorting it makes me wonder if someone is close to the coho news. They must have some sort of heads up to hold any shorts this late.

For the geo’s I don’t get why Royston spud before the enhanced 2D’s were finished. I get it’s just enhancing the delineated layers but I think it should have been done earlier.

I guess they will blame covid but surely that was just ‘bubble work’.

Anyways results end of month then we enter a news period in Sept.

Trek

Looks like a forced sell 60k at 69p. I mean I really can’t see any other reason to sell now. There is absolutely zilch volume to panic or delight. I picked up two tranches yesterday and have enough left for one more if it hits 70p having sold half my holding at 80p to buy back lower.

Now have a sub 80p average which I am really pleased with!

Gosh this share has been hard work! 2 x fires, POG up and down, delays, unexpected raise at 88p more delays then suddenly ahead of plan!

You could write a flipping PUR soap! Well I guess the did for SGZ!

Don’t ever let anyone kid you that making money in shares is easy. Winners deserve every penny and losers seldom deserve to loose a penny! It’s a jungle!

Trek

Looks like TB used the funds from selling here to take part in the BRH placing.

Hope his focus returns to us now. I added a few at 6.5ish to average down as from experience the quiet times have proven to be the best times to buy here.

Hope I don’t regret it as the lack of any news will not tempt in new money.

Trek

$1.2m positive cashflow for quarter, $284k net loss.

$11.2m cash made up of $4.67 cash from raise and flow through and $7.5m loan draw down.

Amended $20m loan facility to provide access to $12.5m by year end.

Admin increased. That will be in part due to outsourcing some of the analysis and EIA work

Thereafter it is expected ops flow through will pay for capex. $2m operating netback from existing ops is set to increase with new wells.

So we have a very favourable cash position.

The old adage long on ops short on finance doesn’t apply. Finance is sorted with the loan terms and cash flow. That leave just ops now!

Trek

Hi IPhone,

The TA basis agrees with your synopsis. 195 close confirms return to uptrend.

All grown ups here. TA doesn’t replace news. It’s just another indicator.

Deals soon will shift this hence the juicy trades when stock has been made available.

Imo buckle up for an enigma!

Trek

Commodities cheap. From THR.

https://www.mining.com/120-year-chart-shows-commodities-have-never-been-this-undervalued/

We just need some decent results for a rerate. That’s stating the obvious as opposed to passing off opinion as fact!

Trek