Member Info for TrekMadone

Thought we may have had a buyback RNS today given strong day Friday. Sp moving back up under its own steam!

Could be that Stifel are also factoring in FX rate. GBP down a tad today. Be interesting to see if there is a buy level.

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Trek

Hardly any Corp news today. Weird!

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Trek

Some good graphics from AOTH, shows where gas fits in.

https://aheadoftheherd.com/even-after-record-year-renewables-still-far-from-a-threat-to-fossil-fuels-energy-dominance-richard-mills/

Trek

Ii paid not sure what time. But in ISA worked out to 2.92449p per share for the quarter.

Trek

I don’t hold anymore having traded down and out I think it was around 430.

Had it in my sights to buy back at 380 but opted to add to DEC. Just went for yield in the end.

I expected this to stop at 450 and am pleased it’s still going! There may be some more excitement on the run in to Christmas due to the APP deal and the current cost of living challenge. That often means people use vouchers more for gifts and to budget.

The SP really went down for no operational or financial reasons. It’s now doing the same going back to where it should be at hopefully +550 for holders here!

Anyways good luck all and be great to see an Aster bid!

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Trek

The buyback is to support the SP up to 100p. Stifel will buy when they see fit. Atm even with quite a few sells we are moving north. I think we will hit a barrier at 90p. That’s when we may see some buying back of stock when there is better buy side liquidity.

‘ Under the Programme, the Company, at its discretion and on occasion, may (subject to applicable law) purchase its Shares in open market transactions depending on market conditions, share price, trading volume and other factors. ’

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Trek

5bn note issued for general business (page 260)

http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/5723E_1-2023-6-30.pdf

I think we will see another acquisition soon!

No idea what porche is on about. Not that it makes any difference here!

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Trek

Told ya! Lol!

But I have other places to invest atm as have to prioritise income! Zzzz!

Enjoy the ride back up!

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Trek

Rubbish! On return from my first holiday (thank YU!) having recently sold my last shares here at 700p this is now the buy zone.

I have more than doubled my money trading YU but sold what was left to buy an unbelievable income opportunity that is DEC. Otherwise I’d be buying here at 590-610 levels again. But I am not one to push my luck!

My interpretation of technicals say 800p is more like that 500p!

Anyone looking for a similar trading opportunity with huge infection ahead check out TXP. I ain’t gonna ramp it. It’s a thank you to the posters here.

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Trek

Great article in guardian on water privatisation….

As so often the case what was intended isn’t what you get…..

“ Analysis of the accounts of Thames Water between 1990 and 2022 reveal a story that is echoed to some degree across the industry. The figures show how privatisation – which was intended to lead to a new era of investment, improved water quality and low bills – turned water into a cash cow for investment firms and private equity companies, ….”

My question is what on Earth is OFWAT doing with their equally highly paid execs!

This is all about behaviours of greed! We shouldn’t need to regulate the flipping regulators!

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/30/in-charts-how-privatisation-drained-thames-waters-coffers?utm_term=649e7a0643334aae8fa4a18b34a892af&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email

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Trek

“ Phoenix Group operates a comprehensive hedging approach whereby it hedges the majority of the market risks it is exposed to. As a result, the change in economic conditions seen during the second half of 2022 is expected to have only a limited impact on the Group's Solvency II capital position, broadly in line with the Group's published sensitivities. In addition, the Group continues to benefit from surplus liquidity in line with its conservative liquidity framework, which enabled it to meet all collateral calls on its hedging instruments during the unprecedented market volatility in September/October, and was not at any point a forced seller of assets. Phoenix Group does not participate in the Liability Driven Investment (LDI) market in any way and does not utilise the strategy for any of its own pension funds.

Phoenix Group's ongoing resilience ensures it remains on track to deliver 2022 cash generation at the top end of its target range of £1.3 to £1.4 billion.”

Trek

From GS…

“ As the U.K. contends with one of the highest inflation rates among advanced economies, there are signs that a drop in immigration by EU workers since Brexit has contributed to an overheated job market and higher inflation, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

Overall immigration to the U.K. has actually increased since the Brexit referendum, but the composition of migration has changed, Goldman Sachs economists James Moberly and Sven Jari Stehn write in the team's report. The post-Brexit migration regime introduced in 2021 has shifted from one that allowed free movement for EU workers to one that is based on skills instead of geography. Immigration from the EU has dropped off sharply, while inflows from outside the EU have risen. At the same time, the main reason for immigration has shifted from people looking for work in the U.K. toward humanitarian reasons and education.….”

It goes on with stats and comparative graphs…

Basically since Brexit we have a balance shift to low/zero skilled immigration = higher tax cost to maintain and a resulting skilled vacancy gap which means businesses are chasing fewer skilled workers to fill those gaps which drive up costs. Genius!

No link as via GS briefings email.

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Trek

Here you go!

“ These are exciting times for Touchstone as the massive development that is Cascadura is now just around the corner, less than a fortnight until first gas from what will be a total game-changer for the company and its shareholders.

The company is in the Bucket List for a good reason and I still believe that the huge upside potential from Cascadura is no way represented by the current share price, my 200p TP still stands. ‘

https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/06/oil-price-touchstone-sound-serica-i3-jadestone-and-finally/

I will say I am not a fan of Malcy’s predictions as I think that even though he doesn’t hold the stock that he tips he still has a vested interest from ‘the circuit’.

One would probably have done better on balance shorting his recs!

It’s a bit like Zak Mir and his charts. They are all overwhelmingly going up! Breaking out! Risk to upside! Blah, blah!

Then when you look at the charts, including TXP. the majority are at lows and many sink have gone lower! That’s the market we are in atm.

There have been few exceptions! Even the FTSE has powered ahead weirdly on just a few shares and it’s not the banks, oil or insurers. AZN, AAL, GSK are among a few that are distorting things! As for the FTSE250 it’s mostly a basket case!

Where does that leave TXP. Well it has a unique price inflection opportunity ahead. Forget for now the 200p ramps. Look at the upside v downside from 60p without Cascadura and 60p with cascadura.

Then look at the probability of cascadura coming on line and how that if successful with enhance the balance sheet.

Now you see we are at the ‘bogs n basins’ end of investing techniques! That’s what I prefer!

Investors have to pick their own odds. I like many should have sliced earlier but we are where we are. Whilst I don’t subscribe to the 200p this year camp I actually envisage a growth story here over the next few years beyond that based on our mcap compared to peers.

Trini is slow but it’s safe and I also wouldn’t rule out a bid for us at some point. But for now just get Casca on line!

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Trek

Wsbn … finals published. I just posted there. That was the first post of today! Amazing! Now under 2p!

I may have a trade on that one later. Just a few hundred quid for fun.

I sold some DEC yesterday at 87.68. Just bought em back at 86.088! Lol!

Will hopefully sell them again tomorrow as xd payment and buy them back again later. Only trading a small % but everyone has been a winner so far! Apart fro the first two! Ooops!

Got average down there from over 120p to 89.8p now!

Txp, last orders under 60p I reckon. Royston Herrera was never a goer. Just a test drill for the main play. Cascadura is the biggy. Should go through 70p easily then and beyond. But if you are trading take the nibbles. They add up!

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Trek

Wow results out and no posts today?

I think everyone is waiting for the placing. Results are to end of DEc 31 so running the admin costs through it won’t take long to burn 1.4m. The majority of the 2.35m raised from sept has been spent now.

Pretty poor to leave it to go below 2p. Should have raised early. The market didn’t buy the ramps.

Get it done and then this could move but for now who in their right mind is going to buy stock and find you actually may not be able to sell it!

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Trek

Agree sajy, they are doing the right things for the longer term. A CEO appt may give a little lift. I don’t see any ink drying on anything until they have a new CEO. As I thought Debra is ticking things over. Look back in around September I think.

IMO Stock is a bargain for those that can buy and wait.

GL all

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Trek

I guess there will be more testing once plugs are out. Proper soak test before they open the valves and then more testing but shouldn’t take long.

Gas has had a little run to 2.7. Just pulled back a bit.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Futures looking bright!

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.quotes.html

Lol!

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Trek

Another reason to buy CAML nom! Debt free low cost producer. Assets running down though but plenty of time left. Also not far from Ukraine by train if Zelensky can land some infrastructure deals. China also looking fed up with the war now. Could all change in a blink!

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Trek

Also CAML. I called 177 as the bottom there a while back. It’s hit it and had a couple of goes at a bounce. Due a move now imo. Grab a wedge under 180 if you can. 200p easily on cards imo.

If I can flip another play I will grab some but riding my 83p DEC buys for now. I pretty much went all in selling elsewhere including all my YU and DUKE which were up and buying DEC for the yield and also some PHNX at 526! Crazy market!

There are loads of opportunities out there now!

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Trek

JSE been on my list. I had to average down at DEC though and am trying to stick with income plays. I am not sure how JSE divi will hold.

I have them popping soon. Ops sorted and finance done. Like I said before those are the bottoms to go for where ops and ta align.

I would buy now and keep two lots back in case it goes to 30p buying at 31.5 and 30p. If it pops happy days you can sell and recycle so you are selling when others are buying and then add on the retrace unless you want to hold for longer!

40p could come pretty quickly imo!

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Trek