Member Info for TrekMadone

Montana,

“ Can anyone give reasonable advice on the future of this? ”

I traded out following the death spiral finance. Has that changed? No. Are the wells now suddenly performing?

Anyone taking a risk here deserves all their rewards.

I feel for the LTH’s that have been caught and paying a higher price for not taking initial losses and I get why.

If you are seriously interested in buying in then there’s lots of research to do especially calculating the financials. If investing I would await for more positive news and that it’s truly turned.

For now I view this as a trading stock for someone trying to time a bounce and then exit as it could well do a 2 or 3 bag. After that change it may or may not be investable and I still wouldn’t put a lot in.

Just my view. Good luck.

Usual caveats

Trek

Unaudited corrected results out. They are just a formality but someone sold on the 2pm RNS. Only a small sell 50k ish shares but knocked price down near 9% lol!

Then 15p gets snapped up by some imo savvy buyers!

Point is this could move rapidly back up if the next TU is positive. Freenome sales are in bag + regular pharma contracts and debt now significantly reduced. I don’t think it will take much, just some outlook positivity or director buys from new BoD could have a very positive impact!

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Trek

Ai can find stocks now. TSX:ARB actually looks promising! Lol!

https://news-by-ai.com/business/volkswagen-secures-canadian-lithium-with-20-billion-investment-how-investors-can-cash-in/?gclid=CjwKCAjw5MOlBhBTEiwAAJ8e1gAO02n6gER2EhH0DuLehbWlUCLqMlQoeuiBXzTCMbBjKBAPY6qJ3BoCryUQAvD_BwE

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Trek

Hi Glen,

Yes I covered that in my missive. My point was around results in DEc and chart. SP didn’t pick up.

Then the prod at Vatomina and Sahamamy did come on strong but you then had the acquisition and unknown costs at Suni (last RNS) plus dilution however one factors it.

I see it as an outsider looking in, briefly as i usually spend many many hours before I decide to build a position, the inflexion here comes down to 2 financing 1.

I do have concerns around unaudited accounts, pooling results and I haven’t looked at any prospectuses that may be on the website. So please forgive me, mine is a glance but I think my views possibly align with the disconnect between SP and opportunity.

I am sure the gap will close when there is more data.

Please I will leave it now as it is only my intention to comment and I do see a very good future here. Good luck!

ATB

Usual caveats

Trek

This I didn’t know about Saudi and Ruski oil…..

“Saudi Arabia imported record volumes of discounted Russian fuel oil in June, a near 10-fold annual increase to meet summer power generation demand and maintain crude exports, Jeslyn Lerh reports.

The kingdom has ramped up fuel oil imports from Russia this year following the European Union's ban on Russian products. Saudi's Russian fuel oil imports hit 2.86 million metric tons for the first half of 2023, exceeding the 1.63 million metric tons for all of 2022, Kpler data show.

Russia’s growing oil trade with the world's biggest exporter enables it to keep output flowing to global buyers despite Western sanctions that have shut its access to key markets including Europe.”

And then China buying what they don’t need to sell back to market!……

“ China’s crude oil imports surged in June to the second-highest monthly figure on record as refiners built up inventories despite tepid domestic demand, Andrew Hayley reports. While kerosene demand is up strongly on the year, boosted by a resumption in flights after the removal of curbs on travel, weakness in the manufacturing and property sectors has hurt demand for diesel, despite government stimulus measures.

China’s refiners tend to be opportunistic crude buyers, boosting imports and accumulating inventories whenever prices dip. But destocking is likely to depress China’s imports if recent output cuts by Saudi Arabia and its OPEC⁺ allies succeed in boosting prices in the second half of the year.”

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Trek

Hi HarChris,

You have spent more time looking at the data than I (I don’t have a position here) but I think it’s fair to say that my point stands around awaiting market numbers to confirm the aspirations here. An axiom really given the SP. And that’s the secret. If you guys think you are ahead of news you will be the right side.

If it proves that Vatomina and Sahamamy are now throwing off cash to finance the investment needed in Suni happy days!

Andii,

From half year DEC 22…

“ The percentage of operating margins reduced from 54% to 32% YoY owing to increased costs with increased capacities but lower capacity utilisation due to adverse weather conditions and continued development activities with conservative capitalisation of costs as per accounting standards and guidelines.”

So vols up but so are costs. Sometimes headlines can be misleading.

When you next right to the BoD I would seriously ask them to break back the data by site. CAML where I used to hold did that well and it’s helpful.

I will leave it there as I was asked to be objective.

This does looks promising.

Good luck guys,

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Trek

A wise move imo topping up for those that could. 1.654% of shares traded and a 7.44% drop in mcap. Will likely get a FOMO bounce tomorrow!

Pretty much sums up my earlier point about the LSE algorithm. It’s geared to generate transactions and to do that you need volatility. MM’s and the LSE get paid for transaction volumes. Price and value is only really achieved during a takeover.

There is zero incentive for the markets to reward a position of hold. Hence they shake it around to generate volume.

I posted similar explanation on the IQAI BB a couple days ago. There today it’s gone up disproportionately on sod all volume but outstanding news!

Anyways short term SP machinations here mean zero to me! Two key events Casca hook up and flow rates. Royston test and flow rates. Both will materialise in the fullness of time.

Those are incremental events which should result in higher Sp lows and higher highs but most importantly cash to finance further operations to add resource to the balance sheet.

Usual caveats

Trek

Roger comments….

https://businessday.ng/companies/article/seplat-ceo-says-nigerias-upstream-sector-needs-to-attract-more-investments/

Trek

Hi Andii,

Here is a great article from AOTH that underlines the graphite story. I honestly think TGR is a good proposition in this space.

https://aheadoftheherd.com/chinas-metal-export-controls-give-impetus-for-us-to-develop-its-own-graphite-supply-richard-mills/

I note the SP is still down below the DEc 35p placing price which is not unusual

Looking at the chart the sp started to drop when the expectations didn’t material in the DEC 29th RNS half yearly results.

Sales and volumes were going up but so has been costs resulting in reduced margins and a call on the CLN’s.

So hindsight that’s the latest financial data. So one has to ask if since then in the two subsequent trading updates has that story or outlook changed materially in terms of unit cost, cash position and capex commitment?

The Sahamamy project had since been completed. So that is less of a capex pull. And productivity has increased at both sites.

Then just as things were picking up along comes the suni acquisition which pulled on cash and needed substantial dilution at 25p ish. That can be cynically viewed as giving away suni and the rest for 25p (even tho it’s academically 2 x 25p ish).

It’s VFM in terms of missing out loads of regulatory hoops and accretive in terms of reserves but how much capex is needed to develop Suni? There has since been an assessment (10th JUL) which show’s opportunities. That’s all.

Vatomina and Sahamamy are coming good so given the track record of the team ergo so should suni.

I note the 9th May update did not split out the sites. I would expect that level of transparency and a total. Especially when Suni numbers come on.

AtM I think this is a good buy for exposure to the hot graphite sector which has huge macro drivers. But as a stand-alone investment whilst I rate it as a buy I would be disciplined in buying as there is possibly another call for capex at suni. Now that could be a good thing given the track record but I would pick some up now and then add in some more later depending on news and wait for the SP to break back up.

This could rerate quickly once more production and Suni data lands.

No idea if that rushed view is of any use but good luck!

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Trek

Hi Andy,

You are so kind. I don’t have time this weekend as I am teaching next week so have prep to do.

But I did look at them a while back. I think you have defo picked the right space to invest in in terms of supply/demand. Graphite and graphene is much needed.

The SP is well down atm though. I would just revisit my research in terms of.

1. Finance

2. BoD lability

3. Route to market.

It’s pretty basic stuff given that you are in a good sector. I am just assuming that you have already looked at Madagascar politics, investibility of country, currency risk. I would assume they transact in USD but there is always local currency to factor in. It’s something I keep on top of at SEPL (Nigeria).

If you want sector exposure with lower risk I would look at Graphite 1, Canada.

Good luck

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Trek

Tyke it doesn’t matter how much the SP goes up today it won’t come close to the potential value here!

We are on the road to a phase 2 to treat GBM for ALL ages by capsule! Unmet clinical need. ODD status. Phase 1 atm.

It’s way tooo big a deal for us!

There is 700bn sloshing around in Pharma. They don’t have that many new projects!

From GS on email ….

“ The global pharmaceutical sector has around $700 billion at its disposal to acquire other companies and invest in research and development, according to Goldman Sachs Research. That war chest will be important as patents expire for some of the industry's blockbuster drugs.

“The pharmaceutical industry will need growth, and at this time they are sitting on a tremendous amount of cash,” says Asad Haider, head of the healthcare business unit in Goldman Sachs Research. “The baseline expectation is that there is going to be continued M&A.”

In addition, he says there's progress in the development of new treatments, and there are signs that surgical procedure volumes are on the rise. Meanwhile, MedTech is expected to be the industry's best performing subsector in the second half of the year, according to a midyear investor survey conducted in conjunction with Goldman Sachs' 44th annual Global Healthcare Conference.”

We have a CEO with a huge holding that’s so big he had to create a family trust and hand stock to them. He will fund via CLN’s that’s our primary issue but we have his fear of self dilution on our side. Also we have revs from IB and grants that have taken us through P1 for over a year without any need for cash.

Like I say p2 is too big. Complete p1 box it up and sell it. ODD is worth we’ll over 10m alone!

Read the tea leaves!

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Trek

OD designation!

“ Orphan Drug Designation for GaM in Pediatric GBM

Imaging Biometrics, LLC (IB), a wholly-owned subsidiary of IQ-AI Ltd (LSE: IQAI, OTCQB: IQAIF), today announced the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (US FDA) has granted Orphan Drug Designation (ODD) for gallium maltolate (GaM) for the treatment of pediatric glioblastoma multiforme (GBM).

In February, IB was granted Orphan Drug Designation for adult GBM. The US FDA has since confirmed that the designation granted in February applies to all GBM patients. GBM is the most common and aggressive primary brain tumor in adults and children. There are currently no effective treatments for pediatric glioblastoma.

Oral GaM recently demonstrated significant survival benefits in a pre-clinical study for pediatric GBM. These promising results, coupled with the easy administration by capsule, make this a very attractive potential treatment option for both pediatric and adult patients.

"We are very pleased that the FDA has now confirmed that the orphan drug designation for GaM applies to all GBM populations including pediatric patients," said Trevor Brown, CEO of IQ-AI.

--ENDS-

🚀🚀 lol!

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Trek

Always wanted to do that! Lol!

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Trek

Be interesting to see what happens to markets and commos today after China data.

Trek

Well done! I forgot about those Mick! Defo a good use of funds!

I have PoA for my father-in-law and bought him 50k. He loves it! Has had 2 x £600 wins and a prize every month for the last 8! Lucky sd!

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Trek

From Bloomberg…

China in the do!

“ China’s exports contracted in June at the fastest pace since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, as high inflation in key developed markets and geopolitics hit global demand.

Thursday’s trade data release is yet another fresh indication that China’s leaders will not be able to count on external factors in reviving the faltering growth momentum. The decline in June imports was also more severe than expectations, suggesting local demand is also waning.

The dollar value of China’s exports plunged 12.4% in June from a year ago, customs data showed Thursday. This is a far bigger drop than expectations for a 9.5% decline in a Reuters poll and the 7.5% annual decline in May. The percentage decline was the biggest that the world’s second-largest economy has recorded since February 2020.

Imports declined 6.8%, in June from a year ago, also worse than expectations for a 4% decline and the 4.5% annual decline in May.

China’s trade still faces rather great pressure in the second half of the year, partly due to high inflation in developed countries and geopolitics, Lu Daliang, a spokesperson for China’s customs bureau, said at a press conference Thursday.”

Re bear a while back we didn’t believe the data coming out…now look!. I suggest this is tempered as well.

Imo China heading for stagflation. Low growth low inflation. They have to pay for the single child policy at some point. They have aging demographic but atm 55-65 are working with lots of youth unemployment.

They are in for a demographic shock that will be exacerbated by AI as there won’t be a transition of employment from old to young due to increase in productivity and lower demand. Factor in the West decoupling now and Russia situation and China not looking good.

Inflation in the West could plummet just as quickly as it rose due to our policies of demand destruction. We need to be investing in infrastructure and service now!

USD is weak atm esp as the Yen is filling the void from China. Japan are now ahead on the cycle but USD will bounce back thanks to Biden’s Keynesian economic path.

India is continuing to show itself as the place to invest for the EM buffs! Growth, productivity and population increase. Then imo Nigeria which has an amazing young demographic and now business friendly election results. One of the reasons I hold SEPL (Nigerian O&G) is in country growth and it’s now well up from 105p.

Usual caveats

Trek

Building society FSCS cover is £85k per account. Split the money across 6 accounts. You can get over 4% on a 12 month or a 24 month contract. Leeds and Skipton do 18 months, ATOM may still 18 month one as well. Opt for a monthly income. Thats +20k pa before tax liabilities.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/saving/article-1583864/Best-savings-rates-Isas-Cash-Isa-accounts-fixed-rate-Isas.html

There are no ‘safe homes’ on the market in stocks or funds.

If you want risk that’s a different question all together and would take an age to answer as it depends on one’s attitude, how much to spilt across various options etc. but anyone who uses ‘safe’ doesn’t understand risk.

Even if I gave you my view of the best safest option it could still be undone by a black swan event.

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Trek

Well said notrex!

Volume of trades +50% higher already today yet GBP is near $1.30!

I guess a few % fx in this yield really doesn’t make that much difference.

Back over 90 soon and hopefully good riddance to the 80’s!

Well overweight here now and still rate it as a solid buy!

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Trek

GBP near 1.30 now gonna put pressure on FTSE dollar earners.

I have added to my DEC again whilst under 90. You’d think it would go down today on the fx but it’s now going up?

I guess with the yield so high against a low SP the fx is being shaken off by the market. GSK is one that is v sensitive to fx.

I also follow Liontrust for high yield (LIO). Stellar move today on no news!

Everything in my pf is well blue today and yet you’d think it should be down or flat as not that much has changed since yesterday!

Market is simply bonkers!

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Trek

I’d be happy with a t/o here at +200p and would chuck it all into DEC for the income esp if it’s under 90p!

Usual caveats

Trek