Member Info for TrekMadone

Only 23 posts here. So under the radar!

Look at HARL 90 so far, Cascadura and Royston have better chances than pretty much any govt contract landing! Then there’s COPL 118 for death spiral finance and wells yet to be proven sustainably viable. HE1 200 odd posts with a drill delay, MATD near 250 posts! Just illustrates how we are overlooked atm.

Yet TXP from this level has probably the best downside v upside risk reward. For sure others can go higher but here it’s imo more likely and we are underpinned by production and reserves.

Hopefully cascadura on line will get us noticed especially from institutional money that may be on the sidelines or even Shell who following Coho and the bid rounds must have run the numbers. They tend to buy when risk is out as opposed to ahead, good flow rates could really set this off later!

Looking forward to next week and I think we will have an RNS Monday even if it’s just a commissioning update.

Usual caveats

Trek

I added a few at 523.5. Thought bottom was in. Again! Lol!

NFP came in softer imo market now has 25bps rise from fed baked in.

Small buy helps the average which isn’t far off now!

Usual caveats

Trek

I recently got a renewal quote for my car insurance and noted they had changed lots of the terms and conditions. One which was added was around cyber security. It basically said General Accident would carry no responsibility for cyber risk.

I noted a few companies now adding in this get out clause. This is the reply when I asked them about my data security….

“ I have received clarification on your query.

We will not cover any cyber security risks. As an example, your data being stolen and used elsewhere is not the responsibility of GenerAccident.com or our underwriters Aviva.

Although any security risk that affected your motor policy we would indemnify.”

No incentive then for these companies to keep their data security up to date. They don’t seem to get that cyber risk is probably one of the highest risks we face. The terms actually exclude motor policy risk as well!

You wouldn’t leave your front door open when you go on holiday and yet many of these companies are pretty ignorant of the value of one’s data and the responsibilities they have.

It’s just too easy for state sponsored cybercrime to access pretty much whatever they like and shut down pipelines, crash the nhs and banks and yet many institutions don’t seem to take it seriously enough. Easier to just add in a get out clause in the small print!

Usual caveats

Trek

Meant to say we are due a trading update. Should be next week.

Hopefully results in a change in sentiment as it will also be one year since Alister joined us!

Usual caveats

Trek

From GS on email just now….

“ The global pharmaceutical sector has around $700 billion at its disposal to acquire other companies and invest in research and development, according to Goldman Sachs Research. That war chest will be important as patents expire for some of the industry's blockbuster drugs.

“The pharmaceutical industry will need growth, and at this time they are sitting on a tremendous amount of cash,” says Asad Haider, head of the healthcare business unit in Goldman Sachs Research. “The baseline expectation is that there is going to be continued M&A.”

In addition, he says there's progress in the development of new treatments, and there are signs that surgical procedure volumes are on the rise. Meanwhile, MedTech is expected to be the industry's best performing subsector in the second half of the year, according to a midyear investor survey conducted in conjunction with Goldman Sachs' 44th annual Global Healthcare Conference.”

Like I said ONC can bolt on to pretty much any R&D. I had LID & HZD as takeovers, same sector and weeks apart! ONC will make it 3 I think.

Usual caveats

Trek

There is a buyer there for theses. Will take all my stock in one go at 85.95! That’s not the sign of a distressed SP!

Nfp came in softer today….

“ The Labor Department’s June report showed payrolls increase less than expected and a cooldown in growth from May. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 209,000, while the unemployment rate came in at 3.6%. Economists polled by Dow Jones had anticipated 240,000 positions added and a similar jobless level. The unemployment rate also declined from 3.7% in May.

But parts of the report could give the Federal Reserve reason to resume hiking later this month. The closely watched wages numbers came in slightly stronger than expected. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% in June and 4.4% from a year ago.

“Weaker than expected jobs data on the headline front, wasn’t supported by some other data in the report,” wrote Peter Tchir of Academy Securities in a note. It was “a mixed enough report that the Fed can probably go 25 [basis points] at the next meeting, but we don’t need to price in much more than that.”

A 25 bps rise could be the last at least ahead of Christmas in which case the markets could rally back up again. Oct-Dec tend to be the better market trading months as well.

If I could grab more below 90 I would but have pretty much sold everything that I could and tipped it into here to bag the income.

I mentioned here before my growth play in this sector, TXP, at least that one is now starting to move and offsetting the drop here! But I am confident DEc will climb back above 100p in due course esp as US gas demand is picking up across Europe.

Usual caveats

Trek

US nfp out. Lower than expected….but view is fed will raise by 25bps. Could see a market bounce then!

Bloomberg….

“ The Labor Department’s June report showed payrolls increase less than expected and a cooldown in growth from May. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 209,000, while the unemployment rate came in at 3.6%. Economists polled by Dow Jones had anticipated 240,000 positions added and a similar jobless level. The unemployment rate also declined from 3.7% in May.

But parts of the report could give the Federal Reserve reason to resume hiking later this month. The closely watched wages numbers came in slightly stronger than expected. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% in June and 4.4% from a year ago.

“Weaker than expected jobs data on the headline front, wasn’t supported by some other data in the report,” wrote Peter Tchir of Academy Securities in a note. It was “a mixed enough report that the Fed can probably go 25 [basis points] at the next meeting, but we don’t need to price in much more than that.”

Usual caveats

Trek

So true SeaTank re O&G sector and even the good ones mcap’s are disconnected from value due to market mechanics. It’s not just O&G though it’s across the board. Just when you think it’s cheap it gets cheaper.

My two biggest positions, DEC for income, has just dipped back on US jobs data and my growth play TXP is just coming to life after years of being in the doldrums! It’s so undervalued on a peer basis but hey it’ll change soon.

I even note the likes of CMCX one of my fav trading stocks is valued at cash now!

Everything seems to move substantially on low volumes as the MM’s try to generate liquidity with their ALGO’s and single figure trades as they get paid for transactions. Investors that just hold a stock aren’t much use to them! Hence a small % of a mcap traded can have a disproportionate impact on a stocks overall value.

Still at least it works both ways it’s just that there hasn’t been much to celebrate in the last couple of years!

I am happy to the SEPL I have left. The bad news is under the bridge now and things should only get better. When/if the deal is done I will resist the temptation to sell into the news as I see this as a long term income play and those in at these levels could be getting some significant yield.

Gav’s 87p and ToD’s free carry takes some beating though!

I am at 105 now but sliced a few before and gonna stick!

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Trek

Unbelievable that this was well over 100p without coho, without Casca coming on and without Royston testing and without RBL!

Complete disconnect between mcap and value!

Well ‘they’ say value outs eventually. Let’s see!

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Trek

Good infographic…

https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/whos-still-buying-russian-fossil-fuels-in-2023/

Didn’t realise Turkey burnt so much!

Trek

Interesting on India 4mins in. Makes up for others!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-07-07/m-g-investments-pershad-on-markets-strategy-video

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Trek

It was up +7% on 23 trades trades tro,

Shows what a joke London is. SP’s move on small volumes of trades disproportionate to the mcap as MM’s get paid for trades not investors that hold, hence stocks are ‘manipulated’ to drive volume.

I guess it should all balance out over time but some folks investment horizons are shortening!

Got one ISA full of TXP! Only just added some ONC recently just to use up my free trade allowance with ii for a bit of fun!

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Trek

Hi DrPatience,

Everything has its price. Those same shareholders agreed to EarlyCDT lung sale for 13m! I doubt that’s even getting our money back on what was one of the biggest phase 3 trials ever!

The antigen databank has a huge value especially now with AI technology. The base data that ONC hold is probably the best in the world. It needs someone to introduce a predictive element to it in tandem with quantitative & qualitative responses.

50m would be a snip for ONC and that may see some investors willing to sell.

You are right that there is no relationship between the mcap and company value here. London is useless, it’s based purely on buying v selling algorithms which are ‘easily’ manipulated. There is nothing in the price for a hold. SP’s move wildly on a small % of trades in relation to mcap. The market gets paid for trading not investors holding. But it can move both ways!

Hence it takes a bid to accelerate value and ONC is a company that can be bought, bolted on and used to drive a big pharma forward whilst paying for itself with its services.

It’ll most likely be snapped up and rapidly brought into the new AI world!

I intend to keep adding as well as I can free up funds and really should stay quiet as like you say just a few buys could send this to 30’s in a blink!

Usual caveats

Trek

What always amazes me is why some folk wait until the last minute before news to buy. These could have been had for 57p 3 weeks ago but folk waited that extra time and paid 20% more. They must be financial geniuses to get 20% in 3 weeks from elsewhere!.

I guess if you are buying for a chance of +100% 10p doesn’t really matter or else they hope to sell into the news on Monday for a hit and run trade. The trading money was here though with the recent pattern of 4 x buy at 60p and 4x sell at 70p. All of which I tipped on the Tecan BB.

But imo the real money is now in the ‘wall of cash’ that is cascadura and even if it’s not Monday it will happen. That sets TXP up for the Herra fairway and a route to a full cycle E&P company with a ready market and eventually, dividends!

That’s what many are here for!

Good luck whatever your position

Usual caveats

Trek

4 x 10p doh!

I should read my own posts before sending!!!

Trek

There ya go, MM will give you 70p now for TXP.

That’s 10x 10p returns on a 60p average buy price = 66.6%.

Not bad as your money was only on risk for short periods of time trading technicals when they aligned with news. One only gets to spot opportunities like that when you really know a stock and I have been in TXP for years even with 11p buys!

It’s got further to go imo but it was a trading tip and as such you sell before the news and not wait for the news so anyone buying on my recent 57-60p buy rec should sell now.

I am staying for a long time yet but that’s easier through the lens of a very low average.

Good luck,

Usual caveats

Trek

Started buying a few. It looks like the bottom is in now. Has revenues, just sold assets to complete financial restructure. Could climb to 40p once market sees revenues for high margin immunodiagnostics business. 80% returns, 7 top 10 Pharma’s as clients for its huge databank, probably the biggest antigen databank in world! It looks for responses saving pharma loads of money and time on clinical trials.

If it doesn’t bounce imo it’ll be taken over as an easy bolt on for an R&D biotech.

Debt was a problem but sale of its lung cancer screening business has addressed the balance sheet but it hasn’t recovered yet as the market isn’t sure of the cash flow. So it’s a high risk play but that gives it a good chance of a hard bounce if the sales pipeline is there.

I don’t think it will take much to move it but punt money only!

Usual caveats

Trek

I have started buying here. Only small numbers. Using my free ii trading allowance in my TXP ‘yolo’ account. That way I only add a few each month! Picked some more up earlier this week.

I see a climb to 40p on next news as easily achievable which is a good rise from this basement once the market sees the revenues.

Usual caveats

Trek

70p close?

Once the plugs are pulled does anyone know how long they soak test for or is that it and just a gradual increase of flow rates?

Trek

After I said to buy TXP at 57p and again at 60p to sell at 70p. That could be a winning trade for the fourth time in a row.

HE1 don’t have the BoD to deliver anymore. I rode it from 4p to 24p with a good size pot and bar one other dabble have staid away. I am amazed it’s only 14% down atm. If there’s liquidity and you like, sell and buy back for less imo!

Wish I bought MATD though at 4p again but just didn’t have the cash. If I did I would slice a load now though!

Good luck,

Usual caveats

Trek