Member Info for TrekMadone

The MM’s did well to fill that £100k delayed buy.

Technical analysis….

Now they are stuffed! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

Surely it has to be viable full cycle. What is the point of having energy that costs more to produce than it does to sell at the taxpayers expense. The onus for this should be on the shareholders not the taxpayers or else the govt should do it themselves with sovereign money.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/05/uk-offshore-wind-at-tipping-point-as-funding-crisis-threatens-industry?utm_term=64d0971a92d6749ad4bd5d40cc9bf0e9&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email

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Trek

Hi corpse,

Sorry below meant to say pop after it pulled back to 86p, now 88p as LSE lags.

If you look at TRIN RNS they have been given 40% for a discovery today. They haven’t flow tested it yet (not knocking TRIN wish all PI’s the best). There’s approx 350 feet of pay 63 is in the deep. They will start testing in September.

It’s similar size pay to Royston, I haven’t gone through pressures. Our deep was uncommercial but low API sweet crude was found. It wasn’t the main pay that’s what we are TESTING now.

There’s zilch in the sp for Royston! After Chinook and delays at Coho and Cascadura the market understandably isn’t convinced that Royston is commercial. So thankfully we don’t have the 40% pop that TRIN have else it could quickly come tumbling down and taint the SP after Cascadura comes on line.

So at the moment there’s probably money on the side to invest here because IF cascadura hooks up and delivers it’s a whole new company with a long term investable and eventually a likely income paying producer. The sort of company EM investors would buy.

The MM’s know this, they know they can also hedge any downside if they so wish. But they will have buyers for stock IF cascadura comes in. They don’t have the stock atm. There just isn’t the liquidity here to buy.

There are too many LTH’s here mostly PI’s with big positions that know the story and just ain’t selling not even this year.

If they push the stock up people will buy. It’s how it works. Once they let it go they will have to keep popping the price to tempt sellers!

I have posted here before that it’s only a small percentage of mcap traded that can have a disproportionate impact on the SP up or down. For us so far it’s been down! But investors have held coz the story is in tact!

Soon we will be able to enjoy the flip side of that crappy London ALGO where a mere 2% of stock traded can have a 15% lift in SP! They can fk about with the spreads and ALGO trades as much as they want. You simply cannot supply buying by keeping the price down!

The anticipation of cascadura and cascadura coming on line is a huge SP catalyst here!

Malcy says 200p. It’s about time he got one right!

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Trek

Low intraday UT trade 86.2p at 0900 has likely triggered traders to take profits at above that price especially given the spread.

Next UT was a tad higher at 87.6 at 1100.

Should move back up soon with the sells out the way. Probably 10% buyers. Was always looking like a quick easy gain here on run in to news.

Gives others a chance to get in before it pi-s back up though!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hey Tro,

If I type quickly you get a ‘kiss’ instead of a ‘miss’! Lol!

Trek

Come on Tro you kissed UPL.

My tip from last week to buy at 1.37 and sell at 2.5. All the technical gods now seem to think so! Lol!

Up another 22% today…. Kerching!!

TXP warming up at last. Was tipped at 60p told to sell at 70p (4x) unless you wanted to hold. Told to re-enter at 80p as SP momentum restored.

100p before results. That will be a push but is possible.

Looking at 10000 boepd in a pretty short time. $24m debt $8m cash (says $10m) and no silly finance arrangements! Malcy targets 200p this year and reiterated!

Take a read across from TRIN, had a strike on Turbidite deep play, RNS today. Both TRinidad and Tobago. Similar geo to TXP. Same structural faults as Guyana and Suriname prolific basins but on shore!

It won’t all happen at once but it’s an incredible prospect and two wells due imminently, one gas (cascadura, huge!) and one oil, Royston being tested now for upper zones. Light crude in lower levels but un-commercial but that’s not the main pay zone. 200feet of potential pay looks like completely discounted by Mr Market! Oil will have to be trucked though but the gas will be piped and NGC has agreed to take the lot! Spot price at the well head! Nice!

When you look at the details and risk reward of TXP you will see why many holders are in ‘big’. For sure it’s unlikely to do a 10 bag just yet like some other moonshots but the odds are safer. TXP are an established producer so finance comes from existing operations and flexibility from recently topped up RBL!

Usual caveats

Trek

Totally agree Re Blu Gaz,

I traded it in the past when I first bought ARB. Blu has no income from its holdings. So how do folk get paid. They either have to sell assets which have in a lot of cases depreciated or raise income. It’s not a viable model.

There are others similar that invest in smallcaps/unlisted stocks and charge commission hoping for astronomical NAV gains. Didn’t Woodford even try similar on a larger scale. Folk get roped into the hype. Always look at the balance sheet and/or trade the news.

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Trek

‘ Just shot up to 88 vs 90p very quickly’

Indicative buys £87.98k Indicative sells £zero

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Trek

Results over at TRIN today…..

“ The Jacobin results validate both the structural and stratigraphic model demonstrating the existence of a deeper turbidite play across Trinity's entire Palo Seco area, and the recently awarded Buenos Ayres block……..”

They also have a deal with Heritage.

It looks like T&T is turning out to be a geological hot bed! XM indicates it’s part of the same prolific Guyana/Suriname structures. But on shore!

Lex,

Isn’t it 10000 bopde well within a year…

Yep awesome!

Usual caveats

Trek

For sure after so many fines that the days of ‘nudge nudge tick box’ audits are coming to an end. No removal of suspension today esp after the weekend then it’s for sure a worry.

Remember it’s the delay to the AR not the finals, which have now been posted, that is the reason. The auditors couldn’t complete in time and the company therefore requested the suspension.

There has now surely been enough time to wrap it up!

I think they will relist today and there should be an explanation.

One would also hope for a working capital reassurance if not I would expect a bookbuild to tide them over until they get solid sales cash flows.

This is so close to the line now to becoming a full circle E&P with a sales market. Removing any uncertainty is key at this juncture to set it up for the long term.

Usual caveats

Trek

Https://aheadoftheherd.com/graphite-essential-to-green-transformation-richard-mills/

Trek

Good interview thanks

Trek

Good week…

COPL up from 1.7…. I said take profits at a tad under 4p. Would do so now unless you wanna invest.

WSBN … Called the placing buys at around 2p said sell over 3p before they placed that was the trade. There then an opportunity to buy back below the placing price as predicted if ya wanted!

Phnx ….pretty much caught bottom at 532…. I sliced a few to grab more TXP but still hold both.

Txp… not really moved yet from 80p tip to re enter

Upl … said buy 1.37 it’s flying…further to go slice at 2.5 as volume is good!

Onc tipped 19p now 24p had a slice but results soon tp 38p still!

Yu still holding above 800. Very positive. I first started buying around 400p but sold. Still a buy though. Bumpy ride to 1000p next.

Wand was in at 88 sold most at 120 for Txp. Would look to buy again for results but no hurry yet. Sell before interims imo travel don’t arrive there!

Buying is often easier than Knowing when to sell!

Enjoy weekend all

Usual caveats

Trek

“I remember this was your YOLO share and piled in, and it looks like you won’t be disappointed!”

Hi ID78,

Yes that’s correct. It still is. 100% of my ISA’s are all TXP! Rest of stuff is Mrs Treks that I trade from. Now she has 20k TXP as well!

Every time I look at the numbers I know one just has to wait and it’ll will happen!

Investors now can buy without enduring the years of purgatory that we have! The rest of this year will literally change TXP and most importantly its balance sheet into a different company!

Enjoy the ride!

Usual caveats

Trek

Shorts don’t always get it right.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1022620/carnival-royal-caribbean-hedge-funds-hit-for-6bn-as-cruise-firms-stay-afloat-1022620.html?rel=scroll

Posted by Tro.

Must only be a small %

https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/KYG7091M1096/

Anyways the mighty TXP is the real Phoenix here as she rises from her deep sleep! The world will soon see as the balance sheet never lies!

Soon to have annual revenues increased by 6 x and then 12x and we only have $24m of debt which is financed from existing production and at least $8m cash on the books!

‘This time next year Rodders, we’ll be millionaires!’

https://youtu.be/iZC2LffFBw4

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi ID78,

I still hold both and a silly amount for me here!

It’s a good idea to have a balance of income and growth in your pf. That’s after all the usual stuff. Mortgage, cash etc…

I just sold 3k PHNX to buy some more here. My sell was in the money and I spotted an opportunity!

I often sell some of my income to finance the odd trades. But only if I think it’s pretty sure!

I will likely put it back later but I am not selling my core TXP as that will be worth 1m ‘one day Rodders’

Ps anyone know what happened to Dannawinner. Last I heard he went to Asia. He had several hundred k shares here so must be excited about this now!

Usual caveats

Trek

I remember that photo! Lol!

Anyways I just added 20k shares at 82p on the nose was waiting to see how the trades were going. It’ll show up here in a mo.

20,000

TXP

Touchstone Exploration Inc

Price Traded

£0.82

Total Cost

£16,403.99

Type

Buy

Status

Executed

Trade Date/Time

04/08/23 at 11:45:46

Settlement Currency

GBP

Settlement Date

08/08/2023

Trek

Shortbloke,

I’ve done it before. Easy done. Just buy em back and put it down to experience!

Usual caveats

Trek

Just listened to the he1 interview. Pretty rampy stuff again and a basic overview of a flipping drill rig!

Where’s the financial questions? Obviously cynical old me expects that Lorna told the interviewer to stick to the softer stuff and not to get into any detail on funding/finance. That would obviously put her on the spot!

Spud the drill, ramp the SP up then raise cash. Will be a big discount as well imo as £79m mcap is way toppy for an explorer!

Sure they raised 9.9m back in December but admin alone is 1.8m pa and it will be much higher this year after delays, board changes and buying a rig that had to be set up and yet to be crewed.

Don’t get me wrong I am not saying they need the cash for this drill what I am saying is that they will raise cash during this drill so that they then exit with something on the balance sheet.

If it’s a duster then it will be very difficult to get cash. If it’s a success it won’t be but directors won’t take that risk to their pay packets! They will raise. Probably in September.

Not a buy or sell rec as I am a fan but a dose of reality for the perpetual rampers!

Sets it up nicely to trade some hold some again for those that know how!

Usual caveats

Trek

If you go back you will see 4 times I have tipped TXP as a trading buy to buy at 60p and sell at 70p unless you wanted to hold. That’s a pretty good return.

Now who’s up for the big one. Buy at 80p and hold for two weeks to see a 100p TP. That is massively underestimated but as a trading rec it’s a simple upside v downside risk reward play. Should comfortably see +100p soon.

The cascadura processing equipment, separators etc is being tested with nitrogen. It’s prob 90% complete now. Then it will be final safety commissioning and the well will be open.

Just a couple of week I reckon. Could be earlier. But the wait will be over and a nice relief rally!

I hold and am not selling as there is much much more to the story!

Usual caveats

Trek