Member Info for TrekMadone

“ Asian markets have dropped after issues at China’s largest private property developer prompted renewed concerns about the health of the world’s second biggest economy.

Shares in Country Garden, China’s largest private property developer, collapsed 18pc on Monday after it missed a debt payment and suspended trading in several of its bonds.

The property giant had total liabilities of $194bn at the end of 2022 and is one of the top 500 largest companies in the world. Its potential failure to repay its debts would dwarf the default of developer China Evergrande two years ago. The company risks default if it cannot make interest payments on its bonds by September.

Country Garden boss Yang Huiyan, who was at one point one of the richest women in Asia, said the company was “facing the greatest difficulties since our establishment”.

Jeff Zhang, an analyst at Morningstar, said the warning from Country Garden “may not be an isolated event given its worsened liquidity status currently compared with the end of 2022”.

Last month, property conglomerate Dalian Wanda scraped together a payment for a $400m bond at the last minute. Evergrande, which was the centre of concerns about China’s property market two years ago, last month revealed an $81bn loss.

Renewed concerns about the health of China’s property market saw the offshore yuan fall 0.3pc against the dollar, taking it near to 2023 lows. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 2pc and the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.3pc.”

Could be a market shock coming! 194bn US is huge. I don’t see how PCP an find a rug that size!

Usual caveats

Trek

Shock as fake $1 billion OpenAI investment news appears on London Stock Exchange website

US private equity business Ripplewood has hired lawyers to investigate the appearance of the bogus corporate announcement.

A

US private equity business was today shocked after a fake press release appeared on the London Stock Exchange website alleging that the firm was planning to invest $1 billion into ChatGPT owner OpenAI...”

Appeared as an RNS!

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/shock-london-stock-exchange-fake-story-over-1-billion-openai-investment-by-us-firm-ripplewood-b1100569.html

Trek

Hi mick,

Good luck with he1, should do well.

I have posted before that I expect them to raise once they are drilling. Whilst they are funded for this drill it makes sense to top up the coffers up just in case. That keeps the pay packets secure for the directors!

Mcap is pretty toppy for an expo. Any snags and it’s a long way down also the upside from the first drill isn’t as much now as the first time around. I rode it from 6p to 24p with a ‘big’ pot!

If they get the gas they will also need cash. But obviously the sp should be much higher.

There will be plenty of trading money watching that one.

Some in now will sell on drilling commencement and some on the sidelines waiting to buy when if it places which is highly likely and then wait for the drill.

If I did hold I would sell some after they spud esp if in profit and either keep it or put it back in after they place.

Lots of different ways to trade it which makes it very interesting!

I may buy some for the drill result with some divi cash but would sell into any good news and write off any losses!

Atm though I think TXP is the one with short term upside on a risk reward basis.

Good luck

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Trek

Hi bankrupty,

I am overweight again here. Having sold most of my trading pot in the 40’s and a last few at 28p and bought them back in the low 20’s.

I am now back to a position where I can if I choose slice into news back to my core position.

However, if during what I an anticipate as August being a relative news hiatus I can add below a certain level with the knowledge that this should pop again significantly soon.

One can only really play a share like that if you have confidence in the story and your baseline position is buy and hold. It’s just that the volatility offers trading opportunities atm so I am grabbing as many ‘freebies’ as I can!

Good to see DP on the ball! Lol!

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Trek

All these cancer conferences help with profile.

Trek

Here ya go nom…. A job for you!

“I'm an AI prompt engineer. Here are 3 ways I use ChatGPT to get the best results….”

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-write-better-ai-chatgpt-prompts-according-prompt-engineer-2023-3?r=US&IR=T

Unbelievably that is actually a job.

I thought I was the one that’s supposed to be loosing touch!

Trek

Good find. Breast is listed but not brain.

The more ubiquitous it becomes the more value logically should be attached to our tech as it’s not the sort of thing you can do from a standing start.

Having partnerships and US hospitals already using the IB suite is a big advantage. I’d rather be dealing with .Co.USA than UK as we don’t have a very good track record here of following through or doing anything quickly with small biotechs. That’s from my investment experience others may have a different view.

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Trek

There’s loads of news due at PXC. But tbh I don’t expect anything in Aug. City types are usually on holiday, labs are short, civil offices reduced staff etc.

I can only think a few may be getting in early. There usually isn’t the liquidity there even to shift 50k shares. I had to split buys up today. Over £400k traded, that’s huge for there on a non RNS day. Seems odd but sometimes we just get caught out like that!

Anyways it was one of my tips for here earlier this week. It won’t take very much volume now to push it through 30p and even 40’s can come around quickly.

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Trek

Some big buys also gone through today

3 x £50k and £60k & £67k close together plus a 100k and some smaller buys.

17k, 18k and 26k sell and some smaller ones. Doesn’t look B&I as amounts don’t match.

I got NT when trying to pick up another 20k. Had to split it to 2 x 10k shares.

Unusual volume here with no news.

Not expecting any drill news yet. Really not expecting anything this month. Love to be proven wrong but well positioned again just in case!

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Trek

PXC Tro… yep some big buys there. First time I have seen any there that size.

Nav creek drill spinning atm. I am not expecting results yet as I thought labs were busy.

Could be ATS results which would mean permitting submission and then finance.

Lot about to happen there but not just yet. But wtfdik!

Anyway I bought some more today. Lol!

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Trek

Some sells today enabled me to add a few!

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Trek

More O/T intel on money sloshing around for AI..

AI investment forecast to approach $200 billion globally by 2025

Innovations in electricity and personal computers unleashed investment booms of as much as 2% of U.S. GDP as new technologies were adopted into the broader economy. Now, investment in artificial intelligence is ramping up quickly and could eventually have an even bigger impact on GDP, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

Generative AI has enormous economic potential and could boost global labor productivity by more than one percentage point a year in the decade following widespread usage, Goldman Sachs economists Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani write in the team's report. But for that large-scale transformation to happen, businesses will need to make significant upfront investment in physical, digital, and human capital to acquire and implement new technologies and reshape business processes. Those investments, which could amount to around $200 billion globally by 2025, will probably happen before adoption and efficiency gains start driving major gains in productivity.

Over the longer term, AI-related investment could peak as high as 2.5 to 4% of GDP in the U.S. and 1.5 to 2.5% of GDP in other major AI leaders, if Goldman Sachs Research's AI growth projections are fully realized. Our economists estimate AI investment could approach $100 billion in the U.S. and $200 billion globally by 2025. “Despite this extremely fast growth, the near-term GDP impact is likely to be fairly modest given that AI-related investment currently accounts for a very low share of U.S. and global GDP,” Briggs and Kodnani write. “

Well we are in the right sector and defo in the right country with those in the know aware of our tech.

Eventually the stars will align!

Ever the optimist!

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Trek

They netted out with a 70k loss in the quarter due to declines and low poo. It depends which lens you look through. One of a producer where the results are a bit of a shocker! Or as a growth company in which case what they have achieved to get to the position of bringing one major gas production facility on line, on pipe, and another well being tested with what is minimal debt, in the scheme of things, then it’s not bad. Would have been better 2 years earlier though!

But the thing about casca is it finances the high impact production wells and expo wells going forward.

Casca is a huge facility we will have one well and will soon be able to add even a dozen more. That is potentially a massive balance sheet. We then in parallel get to drill the rest of the block.

The potential of the geography is pretty impressive. Whilst nearness isn’t a guarantee we are seeing similar interpretations as Guyana/Suriname and Venezuella geo off shore but on shore in T&T. And that has been played back recently with TRINs drill results.

Casca is really the start of a whole new company and I also agree that we could do with a shuffle at top. XM aside I think even our COO has been off his game of late. Paul we know has disappointed. But one bad season doesn’t mean doom and gloom. They haven’t been here before. We’ve not had the luck we started with but all that can change in a flash.

Next week or a week Tuesday should see the news else things will get nervous without a more substantial update.

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Trek

Hi John,

He says Av price from coho at 2.11. I thought it was all fixed with NGC. I don’t know if there may be a small amount that isn’t but assuming all fixed should be right.

It’s the reducing in crude price and production that has resulted in reduced revs. But it’s not a surprise.

However, atm we are mostly oil. That will change to gas with Casca.

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Trek

Lol xv!

One of the roads here was impassable for ages once as a herd of cows got stuck because of floodwater.

I have also watched the mighty greens play a few times. Only at home though!

Not sure how that rates! Lol!

Have been around a bit in business in a past life and managed teams in London and elsewhere. Don’t miss it now though!

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Trek

Well Pauls nativity around how long the commissioning would take is palpable. I hope he learns from this. The setting of market expectations should have been much better managed.

Still at least it doesn’t say they fkd it up as they are looking forward to updating us. Good that they are close to completing the Royston testing as well.

Investors would have expected the netback reductions especially give the price drops over the period.

The balance sheet shows just how important cascadura is for TXP.

That they have 10m in cash having spent 5m on cascadura is a surprise I was expecting 8 or even less. Debt though is slightly higher at 28m.

But really the balance sheet should hopefully be history soon and it’s coming at a time when HH futures prices are increasing as gas demand increases. Having been stuck below USD 2.7MM/Btu pretty much since Jan 23 it looks set to break resistance.

Next week is near term? I hope so!

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Trek

From Reuters morning bid on email…

“ In Australia, a closely-watched dispute at major gas fields deepened with the national labour regulator allowing workers at two Chevron (CVX.N) facilities to vote on whether to strike.

The prospect of disruption there and at another Woodside (WDS.AX) facility, which together account for 10% of the liquefied natural gas market has lately roiled prices in Europe.”

Trek

Https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/09/oxford-street-shoppers-locked-in-stores-amid-social-media-robbery-campaign?utm_term=64d49446fd90f7de864202167e805bd1&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email

So now hopefully the govt will see the influence TikTok can have in China’s hands and just shut it down!

Not saying China was behind the Oxford street crimes but do you think it will go unnoticed by the Chinese and Russian govts who don’t seem to have much of a problem managing their populations whereas ours take the pss out of their democratic freedoms!

It’s about time people realised with freedom also comes individual accountability, self constraint and respect for others and the rule of law!

It just disgusts me and no doubt many others law abiding citizens especially those who have lost loved ones in defending democracy.

Trek

JIM … could be heading for one. Was an obvious short. Profit warning folllowing skilled person review and loss of model B customers. Paying a divi but not sure that is sustainable for next time. Avoid.

CMCL…. Mmm ebit down, AISC up blanket mine and oxide costs soar! Fx losses as well! flipping balance sheet turned on its head as costs have eaten into flat revs. Also 8m lighter in cash…..watch that one though as ops will turn and it could be a bottom chaser!

TGR… that 29p buy could do well. 1m prepayment hit the books! Will take pressure of RBL bridge. Should bounce.

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Trek

Tro,

What do you have SHG bottoming out at?

I am hoping it times some trades for me at 9p to get back in. Not sure it will go that low though. Sub 10 is a bargain imo and worth a first tranche.

Also note TGR is dipping as expected. That imo will shoot back up when they get funding resolved as it will/should be all debt. 25p there could be an absolute bargain but I would buy in at each penny down from 29p.

For both stocks even if trades are timed wrong they have a hugely compelling long term story and should recover significantly.

UPL feel better now it’s below my sell at 2.5 (buy 1.7) but it went over 3. That says to me ride the btch again!

Usual caveats

Trek