Member Info for TrekMadone

JSE could move quickly once turns

PHNx bottom was 505….expect run up to results and 26p divi.

YU hit 1000 as I said would. Next target is 1200 after that I would only leave in profit

TXP…. Yawn obviously PB is on holiday… but he’s by his phone! News should be soon!

PXC… buy now imo 24-25p is support. Drilling results, ATS, Bond financing, permitting etc lots of news due. It’s best to buy before the newsflow then you can slice some spikes and recycle.

IQAI… had a great week. I still can’t believe it’s only 6m mcap for what it has. It must only be around 200k overdrawn atm and the GE deal should have come with way more cash than that! It’ll probably rerate on no reason later!

WAND if you can buy ideally below 80 it’s shown it’s intent to run at 100p again. News in September but don’t wait for results. Sell into next momentum. You can always buy after. There is always a pull back even if means paying more. Safer that way.

Rule one protect capital!

Rule two…see rule one!

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Trek

Info on Gemini AI and other AI stuff to peruse….

https://www.makeuseof.com/what-is-googles-ai-project-gemini/

Trek

Few RNS’s today as a Wednesday. Also lots of highly paid executives whose pay rises have absolutely no relationship to their companies performance metrics let alone share prices are sunning themselves in oblivion to reality!

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Trek

X ‘twitter’

Just shut it and TikTok down. The world will be a better place without it!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-66570203

Trek

Bit of profit taking today as folk sell into liquidity.

Spread in as well. MM’s happy to take +100k trades in one go having dropped price.

Terrible news that! Lol!

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Trek

Luckily ‘nobody’ gives a sht about this!

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-66545787

Trek

In meantime 520 looks like becoming short term resistance to support then 540 becomes resistance.

If that plays out it will mean those buys aren’t so bad after all as I can sell them back to my trading pot leaving my core position with a way lower average, now well below 540!

🤞

New money buyers now though are the envious winners esp with divi soon!! 👏

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Trek

My son had a small import business where he would source and buy a single product and sell on Amazon for a small profit after all his costs. It was a reasonable volume and he’d clear about £10-£15k a year. That helped him with his medical degree to get going. Had excellent reviews including from a celebrity chef.

Yep you guessed it he’s running it down now. Jus keeping a bit of stock to honour any unforeseen future guarantee issues via returns.

The reason he’s giving up as opposed to expanding is the cashflow from Amazon. He made a few bob and decided now it’s just too much hard work chasing them up! He can’t get a bank loan easily so relied on timely cashflow which used to be ok.

Seems to have coincided with interstates going up!

He’s probably paid more tax then they have! Oh the irony! And now they get extra cash from interest on peoples accounts!

FWIW I refuse to use Amazon. I would rather pay more elsewhere, anywhere than there!

The tories or for that matter Labour won’t change the loopholes as they are the ones that also benefit!

Meanwhile Councils and our public services are strapped for cash! One immediate answer. Put up parking fees and expand the ULEZ!

I’d better stop there!

It’s a Monday and lots to look forward to this and every new week!

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Trek

Not a fan of any investment where I pay a commission. Most of us posting here are probably more than capable of making their own investment decisions. I get it if it’s a time issue but then those wouldn’t be spending ‘investment time’ on BB’s.

NAV discount and DCF is in the eye of the beholder. Some may use it in isolation as an investment indicator of riches to come when their world view returns to ‘the norm’.

That is seldom the case. There are many closed end funds especially in the renewable energy sector that are trading at huge discounts. One has to ask why…

Below is a pretty good article from MasterInvestor that digs into those ‘temptations’. About time!

But all said amongst those discounts some equity propositions like LGEN/PHNX/AV/MNG etc may currently be brought down disproportionately due to sentiment.

So wherever there is discontent there is opportunity for those that can buy now! or perhaps just wait a bit longer! oh I mean now! lol!

The joys of investing!

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/commodities/energy-investment-trusts-not-to-be-trusted/?mc_cid=1cb94f08eb&mc_eid=418bda054f

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Trek

Lallo,

Read the latest broker note below for comparison analysis by Crystal

Trek

“ What do you think the odds are TB keeps the IB imaging side but sells the drug trial side? ”

Hi Tyke,

There are literally so many options for us that I could build a pivot table with them!

They are all a nice problems to have. I and many thought TB would monetise IB just before the big phase 2 financing stage but the GE deal has made many of us have a rethink. They now have the potential of revenues to cross finance their share of the clinical trials.

If/when they announce a partner for the clinical trials and we get some accompanying financial detail the mcap should move to another level.

Think of it like an oil explorer that doesn’t have to place for high impact drill as it’s covered by revenues. And in our case grant funding as well. Which like I say is the opposite to dilution!

It just may be that TB doesn’t want to sell. He could leave an amazing legacy for humanity if GaM is successful and one that his family would justifiably benefit from financially. So who knows!

The Penny hasn’t dropped here yet about what a good financial position the company now is in. The last broker note from crystal wasn’t to far out on the finances. When your finances are in order only then can investors start to factor in the other prospects and thus far we have had zilch in the SP! I wouldn’t be surprised to see a whole penny rise in one day within the next week..

30th May note…

“ Cash Flow. The Company used £374,671 from cash resources to support operations during the year 2022. We estimate the cash kitty of £313,985 is sufficient to keep the Company going during 2023, at recent usage rates.”

https://crystalequityresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/IQAI-IQAIF-Update-Report-May-30-2023-I.pdf

Running this operation on even less than 1m pa let alone 500k with less than 200m shares fully diluted is pretty unusual! Just lol!

This will imo go to 6p v soon now but the story is only just beginning!

Enjoy the ride!

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Trek

Hi nom,

You are probably aware of this anyway but worth a read as it explains the NAV discount may not be all it seems..

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/commodities/energy-investment-trusts-not-to-be-trusted/?mc_cid=1cb94f08eb&mc_eid=418bda054f

Trek

Hi Seawolf,

That depends on your investment horizon and of course how it plays out.

IF they get phase 2 underway fully funded. That will mean a significant SP in 2025

IF they get phase 3 under way then what would you guess the Sp at in 2027?

IF they just sell IB or get acquired then whilst the SP will be multiples it won’t be anywhere near the potential.

Get a phase 3 underway for this unmet need and a £60m mcap which is 10x wouldn’t even look expensive.

If this company is still going in 2029 which is unlikely and they are able to market GaM and still have revs from the AI platforms 10x sp will likely be closer to 50x that’s a 300m mcap again not too extreme.

Hence I have a few of these tucked away in the bottom drawer in an ISA and follow the story with interest.

Of course all of the above is a long long way off but by no means impossible.

We assume TB will sell but he could equally leave this as a legacy for ‘free association books’

After all they did a deal with GE, I was surprised as I thought it would be a sale. Whilst we don’t know, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that TB actually turned an offer down in favour of staying the path.

Love the intrigue here!

There are just so many possibilities and the story is getting better!

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Trek

But atm that’s a long way off for some.

Https://youtu.be/IWUtmg_49VU?si=gDC2gVG1nu-Lldrw

7 min watch

Trek

Appreciate an alternative view Porsche, what is the basis of you discourse?

Given the divi has increase and results have been guided to top end, £1.5bn delivered against top target of 1.4 in finals. Divi is well covered plus a solvency 2 ratio of 189%.

Even an acquisition would mean it’s very unlikely they sidestep the divi.

I fail to see how it can be cut. Now that doesn’t mean it won’t. It just means you have another view which is contrary to the data but must have some credence as the Sp is on its backside. So I’m keen to learn.

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Trek

Well going by petroinvestors views someone’s gotta be dumping!

I ain’t me, not after all this time and purgatory!

I am hoping someone will fill my order!

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Trek

I don’t hold but MNG just announced…..

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SEIT/holding-s-in-company/16090391

That’s pretty encouraging!

I just avoid as I hate paying charges to someone else!

Trek

PHNX. All logic says at 510 it’s an absolute bargain!

The CEO reckons their book is inflation agnostic due to hedging. I have posted over there but it’s also one for traders as loads of liquidity and tight spread. You just gotta remember taxes.

Results are due soon as is next interim divi announcement.

I sold a load at 543 ish having bought lower to get my core average down and put the money back in again.

I then bought em back on the way down over several trades but didn’t catch the bottom.

I think next week it will be obvious how oversold it is and could well come back up quite strongly. If it doesn’t you have a 26p divi cushion (5%) and I can think of a few worse places to be stuck. But PHNX always rises. You just gotta find the right entry price and that’s now!

I went in significantly for me. It’s a freebie tip for the traders as my post or buys won’t make a jot of difference!

I think I have a pretty good tip record so far!

Buy 510, sell 530-539 hold some for the divi and put your wells back in on xd or you can consider a spread bet to increase your leverage (I don’t).

You can then take out and time some other divi stocks for a similar trade. Use a calendar. I have CAML on my radar next. Go for the bigger divi’s. CAmL is 50/50, Lgen which is coming up is 1/3 and 2/3. The next is its interim so not as much reward! You get the gist.

Power to the PI’s! Lol!

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Trek

Just got some liquidity now for 20k shares but can’t get 100k!

Had a period on ii from 1545 to 1600 where couldn’t even buy £100 of stock! Can sell all mine in one go. That’s not happened for a while!

Could do with some sell side liquidity though to move price higher.

This is not the sort of RNS one expects on a Friday afternoon! Hopefully those that want out see the news over the weekend and can sell into this rise.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see this move a whole penny once there is liquidity!

Could be a 4p close if the last trade of the day is a buy!

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Trek

Hi Blu,

If your intention is to trade it be careful as there isn’t always liquidity on either sell or buy side. The MM’s regularly run out of stock so kick the spread East to West!

It’s a buy and tuckaway and if you need to sell to sell into news.

Usual caveats

Trek