Member Info for TrekMadone

GCAT…. I wanna dabble but director resignations, delay with prospectus, RM has no cred having lied to markets before and yet the mine chugs along turning out gold at around 500 bucks an ounce profit!

Still they have hundreds of staff to pay and desperate for financing.

It just could be one of those that once the prospectus is through and the finance is done which will likely be dilutive in some shape or form the shares actually go up! I think there is cash on the sidelines for that one as it could eventually claw its way back to a Penny with a good deal.

If you can get in at .3 to .35 and afford to wait with high risk money you may be able to bag when the news arrives. But it’s super risky so one for fun!

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Trek

XPF …. Great results out today. See RNS.

Only 30m mcap and revs disproportionate to value as it’s pretty much maiden growth results. Ebitda gone from 1.1 to 3.8m at site level. These are franchises. Group ebitda of 1.1m to 1,5m…

3.6m cash which is a lot for that size business and two sites coming on line so capex spent as RNS points to sites come on line in July so that means more upside in next numbers.

Revs are very impressive importantly future bookings are up. Will be Christmas soon. They should get lots of corporates…they spend loads esp alcohol which is high margin. Not sure how that works in their Dubai branch though!

Should have a good day today. Do I break ‘all’ my rules and buy some before the market works out the numbers? Mmmm

Better not as gotta do the wife’s hair and she will go nuts if I am on the trading screens!

But it’s another Trek freebie for someone to make a few quid today. Sell the spike bag profits. Leave a few in if you like for next set of interims. I would!

No one gets them all right but these look solid for now and interest rates are in the news.

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Trek

“ Commerzbank with strong first half of the year, net profit increased by almost 50% to 1.1 billion”

Pretty good results from them. A barometer for Europe. Off back of HSBC some banks are doing well. That usually reads across to insurers that lag.

US NFP today. May show more resilience in jobs market.

Equities set for a bounce soon. I may just ov timed my PHNX purchase pretty well. Also got 26p halfway divi to look forward to! Plus one can sleep easier with those!

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Trek

Very brave people dealing with mine fields. Innovative boots!

https://youtu.be/H9l3hN-zbGg

Trek

KingS,

These links may help you with your calc’s.

Seeking Alpha Commentary

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4617934-diversified-energy-a-15-percent-dividend-yield-thanks-to-its-strong-hedge-book

Corp ppt, slide 18 and 25 (in back up) show the debt amortisation glidepaths that Seeking Alpha mention…

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_cf8cd88ec333d708c7a334e57d86ffa1/dgoc/db/557/4647/pdf/DEC_Corporate_Presentation_May_2023.pdf

People can look at data and come to different projections. The hedging now is over 80% as it leaps forward. There is over $40m cash from divestments not mentioned + 100m RCF. Imo they now have cash for an acquisition. Debt is not an issue. There’s a big lump off due in DEc. The banks (post below) irrespective of their levels of competence can see that far ahead!!

You also have Director buying but then one could argue that that is offset of the buy back that is on and off like…. You know what I mean!

But the key thing here imo isn’t price whether that be hedge or spot. Price is often miss quoted as a panacea or hindrance. The hedging neutralises that but it’s with volume that covers the debt run off.

Volume of sales is key! There is a min in plan tied to glidepath but in the end that is tied to the US macro. That’s why our SP seems to tag up on good economic news stateside and then down if it’s grim.

We can all look at figures and try our best but at the end of the day this model has been sound since IPO. It works. The question is is it sustainable if the US hits a recession. For my part I am happy that Europe has fortunately become an alternative volume output for DEC even if via a double shuffle!

The risks imo to DEC are more from being an economic canary than the debt/acquisition mechanics. Hence news that Freeport has completed maintenance, TotalEnery are investing billions in US gas, Germany is looking for US gas for new terminals, shale is fading etc are of more note than probably markets appreciate.

We have, is it 69000 wells. The most of any US producer. Hence volume is key and volume = macro!

You can look at the finances and business model as much as you like. Imo it’s sound. IMO I t’s outside that box where the real risks lie! But then that’s the same for other cyclicals like banks, non life insurers, manufacturers etc. Same risk less yield and I reckon there is actually less yield risk here than some of the US banks! Well we know that now don’t we!

Good luck whatever your investment decision.

Hope that helps,

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Trek

Hi HH,

Thanks, should be a bounce soon!

TGR….just had a look through their balance sheet to see if there was any reason for suspension but I think it’s just tardiness in not getting results out in time.

It’s pretty obvious they will need cash 289k on books at end of period, they stared with 1.5m. Sales not yet their to absorb ops running at 2.59p loss per share.

But they have done a fantastic job on the capex and distribution side spending 5.4m where it matters using their 4.75. equity wisely.

It’s also an example where CLN’s can actually work as the recent 93k has tided them over and they still have a tad over 1m to call on (not sure of terms) . It would really help if they could get tax rebates, similar story there to SHG in EM economies!

Always amuses me though how results fill up with softer news nowadays like offset the weather event by, divided this reviewed that and implemented lots of feel good stuff. But HR folk like it!….

Anyways showing my age!

Given the macro outlook for graphite & graphene and that they have done an overwhelming amount of leg work. It be interested in them once the funding is resolved.

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Trek

Hi HH,

Not declared yet but Xd Aug (25ish) pays out Sept (12ish).

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/ex-dividend-date-search.py?searchTerm=Phnx

I loaded up today. There’s great liquidity and a fantastic yield to be had. Also interim and final are same which I like. MNG, AV, LGEN etc are 2/3 v 1/3.

PHNX should go on a run before xd. You can then sell ahead of xd or take the divi or half n half etc.

You don’t have to be lucky with the 20% risers as they usually pullback anyway. If you can time the bigger stocks with ‘bigger numbers’ there can be good returns there as well. And you can usually sell if you have to!

Bar 2 buys my others were below 533 today so very pleased and may well tuck them away!

I had also sold some at 551 to buy WAND as I didn’t have any trading funds. Then sold WAND and was going to rebuy but bought some extra PHNX back cheaper!

WAND will go on another run soon but I am trying to resist trading temptations again bar the odd fun small positions. I had a lucky few weeks and like to be sensible and bank the proceeds to increase my income as this is my primary revenue source.

Good luck!

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Trek

I go with the numbers but prefer simple divi affordability as opposed to DCF so FCF (after debt) divi cover, I calculated it earlier and posted it’s v affordable in scheme of things!

More to point pretty psd this hasn’t pulled back today as got 127 top up in mind! Dow will likely drop on moody’s and profit taking so may bring poo and SEPL down. Wanna add more here before news!

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Trek

Took a slice outta DEC today ‘just 25k’ was quoted more to sell 50k and even less for 15k which was weird. Got a ‘big position’ for me there but protecting the edges

There may be a bigger pull back when the toppy DOW opens so need som cash.

Stocks to buy in this market are likes of PHNX and DEC as both have hedged income protection.

PHNX not understood by market has near 200% tier one cover and 1.6 divi cover. No LDI exposure. Fear is AUM drip but they buy other books so that makes purchases cheaper and more pension funds are coming on market.

Here’s a thing both DEC and PHNX go xd end of month and historically both have a pre xd run. PHNX is 50:50 final interim at 26p so you will be able to bag 5% air cover soon!

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Trek

UPL..,,,, boom!

Always always take some profit and recycle on pull backs!

1.9 Tp to slice

Bought back a slice of wand today.

Waiting on ONC to recycle but gone higher now. But have a slice of profit!

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Trek

And WEAP a cereal riser of late!

Also AGGP both in GBP if ya wanna play the macro markets!

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Trek

Took some profits today along with others it seems. Will feed back in if it goes lower.

Trek

UPL…. Been having a look. Some promising ground and funded for a drill on shore next to a big producing field. Malaysia which is geo sound and politically friendly. Shares ready for a technical rebound from overbought and profit taking. Can be bought now at 1.37. I’d be a buyer but cash tied up, so sticking my nose in really! Anyways read all about em here!

1.37 BUY!

https://upland.energy/

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Trek

Not my buy max. I am trying to free up some funds from trades elsewhere to add more but would only be another 100k shares.

Prob Kane stopped out at DEST!

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Trek

What a shake! Healthy for the stock to churn through various price points and let profit takers out.

What’s the odds on us finishing the day where we started! Now that would be funny!

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Trek

I see WSBN got away a 59m share placing. SP now down 18%. Called here to buy 1.5 from memory and to take profits by 3p.

You’d now have a chance to get back in below the placing of 2.4. These tend to retrace below as bookbuilds are never what they seem!

WAND & TXP both back on profit taking. Normal service will resume soon

HEMO I have always had a soft spot as have traded it well. 1.5 is a sweet spot to buy and then sit. There’s always a spurt and pullback. Sht or champagne stock that one. If they get FDA it will fly…

Bit like my IQAI now what is going on there…. It’s up on no volume and no news. It’s not a very liquid stock. I wouldn’t chase it nor would I advise anyone to invest in it. It’s a potential ten bagger or more with pocket money only! I have a few but am backing it with winnings from elsewhere! There are a few of us fools there with reasonable positions!

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Trek

Me to but price can go through it without a buy. Then you look at trades and there are others there for same price!

They pick and choose!

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Trek

Hi Blu,

Been an incredible few weeks and a good year. Two cruises paid for by YU for Mrs Trek and I and soon to have the spending money for the second one and not had to use any capital! I could go on but it’s boring but I do try and share my insights for free. Hoping it will share the love!

TXP to take off by end of next week!

Most important though is faith, health and happiness!

On the limit orders they arent reliable. Even some of mine on 250 stocks don’t get filled like SEPL recently. You gotta try the countdown but I have even had time outs there in succession as price is too volatile!

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Trek

Plan for tomorrow, get on golf course before market opens!

Raised this with LSE bods…

“ Hi,

WAND appears in the risers list today as 4th but not on the front page. It hasn’t been on front page all day even when it was top riser. Please can you resolve.”

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Trek

Comments only today….

“ Touchstone is now within pitching distance of full-on production so the company are taking no risks by missing any final tests at the facility as they approach the final MEEI inspection and ahead of gassing up the system.

Over at Royston, as noted above, the testing continues in this important well targeting the intermediate sheet of the Herrera formation, the primary target of the well.

I remain a huge fan of TXP and when the gas finally flows there will be an incredible increase in value which is by no means in the share price at the moment.”

https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/07/oil-price-touchstone-iog-beacon-jadestone-and-finally/

Incredible and will….. colours to the mast Malcy hey!

Here here!

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Trek