Member Info for Tr1ck

I am indeed Glaswegian for my sins, though over the years I've worked more in various places around the world
I'm out the west side just about to head out for a mountain bike ride to the Glengoyne distillery. Unfortunately not for a taste.

Last post was for BigFatPayDay but I'll buy the rooftop drams for any of the LTHs that run through Glasgow in a mankini once this deal goes through.
Red Sky Bar has a great view
GLA

I'll shout you a large dram of Scotland's finest in the Red Sky Bar rooftop terrace high above the Clyde if you do.
GLA

Similar tale for me. I used to follow the iii BBs all the time until they ruined them with their 'upgrade'.
The recommendation on either the SXX or AMC board was the reason I invested way back in the sub 1p days.
Lost a lot of shared knowledge when that happened.
GLA

The lack of 8.3s is interesting.
I wouldn't expect any parties interested in acquisition to release until the last moment - unless they were looking to scare off opposition with a big holding - so, as I'm no expert, it does raise my interest in any off exchange movements.
Interesting times.
GLA

Personally I think that's a one horse race - politically.
Which is why the BoD have done everything they can to shake this up.
Competition was always key to getting best price, but its always hard playing in someone else's backyard.
I would countenance tempering enthusiam and against any irrational exuberant purchases until deals are done/shares are sold
All IMHO and DYOR
GLA
T

I'd agree the BoD are managing the situation tightly.
The CITIC relationship may well be resolved by the opening position disclosures required within 10 days.
And VTB have taken stakes in NN projects in the past as well as lending to them so that might go some way towards explaining UBS.
Even with relationships defined, given the shenanigans on this BB alone the regulator may be concerned about an unruly market and permit the suspension to continue.
Interestinggly, the SPAngel on the VOX podcast specifically mentions Norilsk then drops in a more general nod to the globals and chinese players.

10 day disclosure window

It makes sense for the BoD and investors for it to be suspended.
It does remove the opportunity to trade on the exuberance of irrational peaks.

Looks like the dealers are getting ready for business so wondering what this roller-coaster ride is going to look like.
I'm thinking inflection points include:
Open for trade with a short squeeze and all the orders now being placed to fill.
Special Situation Funds pile in.
Lots of news/fake news.
Deal announced. (I am firmly of the opinion agreement will be reached on at least a sale of MT but there are no guarantees).
Possible last-minute killer move from a third party (though not so likely in the EUA scenario).
Deal.
If there's a remnant EUA (based around WK most likely), they relist on the main market so IIs can buy and all the Index trackers buy in.
There will undoubtedly be shenanigans and but there should be a number of points at which those of varying risk appetites can realise value.
GLA
Tr1ck

Sean
NN took out a $4bn syndicated 5 year loan earlier this year.
They also pulled out of an Arctic PGM JV.
This would allow them to compete with Chinese state-owned companies who don't have to worry about the share pressures.
GLA

Ragsrob There are lots of ways of trying to gain max value out a deal. For this it's more likely to be a multi-round auction rather than a single sealed bid. Say you'll drop the lowest bidder before the next round to get the prices up and that the top price will be shared after open. You can allow or disallow some types of killer moves as you see fit.
GLA

You can have multiple banks advising on a deal - depends on specialities.
I've done much smaller stuff than this and I'd always have various legals, tax consultants, management consultants, bankers, executives, independents, etc involved. Whatever it takes to get the right deal done.
CITIC and VTB could be bringing guests to the table or could be working with UBS.
GLA

Unless an offer price is specified in the RNS - in which case we gap to close to that - this will exhibit all the exuberant madness you'd expect of a typical AIM goldrush. Which will be exactly why the BoD are keen to keep us suspended.
GLA

I'm in Spikey's sweep at 44p so I'd be happy with that.

Because this is AIM. As shown by the experience of companies like AMC this would have hit the pound today or tomorrow on this news. We PIs could have taken this and run, but it would really have messed up the negotiations for the board and potential buyers.
GLA

nm

Filters are wonderful things.
Facts also are very handy to have around.
The RNS will determine what happens here initially - whether it's gapping up and a short squeeze, or a return to more of a business as usual environment.
I've always found engaging on my own terms worthwhile. Never play someone else's game.

Thanks A1EX
That's a great toy to play with. Hours of endless fun coming up with that I think.
WK really is quite a size.

IMO we'll be keeping that one
GLA
Tr1ck

Ian
Stick me down for the 26th will you.
It would be nice to enter my seventh decade with a soaring share price ticking up through the day as I shoot down a rocky mountain track on my mountain bike ignoring the extended jockdown we've got up here because of the bigoted divisive snp.
GLA
Tr1ck