Flanks licence and inflection points11 Jul 2020 16:28
GDF
Agree in principle with much of your flanks posts.
Having spent these last few months on a board where you could tell where posters stood it's now more complicated with all the newcomers. But I really appreciated the informed posting that went on from a few good LTHs - and you all know who you are so I shan't name you.
I put out a post a while back on the inflection points as I saw them, that ties in with this, IMHO.
Gap up on return to market.
Special situations funds and bidders pile in and create ongoing buying pressure that MMs mask.
Volatility as share rises and market gamesters return, (We'll just have to live with that even though Spik and Frank have gone) but its a rising price trend.
Bidders revealed by close this Wednesday as the disclosure docs need to be in.
Couple of bids announced and taken forward, market still frenetic.
Final bid numbers announced.
Possible hostile bid.
Deal or No Deal.
It's Russia so NN have, effectively, always controlled the table so to counterbalance this and maximise their return the BoD have had to use the levers they can.
VTB have a longstanding relationship with NN and have partnered with them previously on JVs. We know where they stand.
CITIC have the Chinese relationships. We know where they're at.
I'm not sure anyone else matters as they'd struggle to get a bid through governance processes if the flanks licence isn't firm.
UBS are our bankers and like to go large.
If I was NN, my ploy would have been to delay the MT flanks licence, through foul means or fair, to take that value off the table effectively. Then make an offer that hugely over-valued the company without the flanks but which would still hugely undervalue the company with the flanks approved (knowing as they would that the licence would be forthcoming sharpish once they acquired EUA). Under most circumstances that would buy the board.
The regulator was always going to insist the shares trade again (IMHO) so the increasing share value after a long stable (suspension) period works for the Board. There is no undisturbed price here for reference, so all bids have to be purely on perceived future value of asset.
Endgame, for me NN still win, but they have to pay nearer the full fair value for the company. (Which I don't believe to be Simply Wall Streets £8.77)
GLA
And thanks gain to the steadfast crew of LTHs.
P.S. I still plan to organise the pound party for Glasgow - even if we only reach 50p.