The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Nice to see some more positives from A1ex and Rowka back in the fold.
Looking at options for the Glasgow pound party. What would folk prefer - private dining room somewhere like the Ivy, somewhere classic like the Western Club, or up in the clouds at the Red Sky rooftop bar looking out over the Clyde and the hills.
GLA
Lots of debate today about who Rowka might be.
Personally I’ve found his posts informative, just as I have those by A1ex, GFD, MAC, excellance on the other board, etc. We’re in a formal sale process, everything is negotiation, especially if it’s multi-party with different bidders interested in different assets.
So I thank all those who have posted such informative content. I’ve been in EUA for years and I’ve got loads of these little darlings so if you make it up to the pound party in Glasgow I’ll buy any of you informative posters that outrageously expensive bottle of scotch you’ve only dreamt about till now.
And if Christian wants, I’ll even buy him and Dimitri whiskey with an ‘e’.
GLA
DYOR
Tr1ck
If we're going to go all technical with the ZOPA - Zone of Possible Agreement - then I'll remind everybody that what really counts here is our BATNA - our Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement. In this case our BATNA is mining ourselves and taking a higher value over a longer period. This may not work for some as well as others, but it's a pretty great BATNA to have.
If I sold a million of my EUA shares nobody would give a monkey's as they wouldn't hear about it because I'm under the disclosure threshold. Philip Taylor sold around 3% of his shares and kept the other 97%. No biggie.
I have no idea who he is. He may have sold because of portfolio structuring rules or because he wanted free carry or to buy a new Bentley. I don't know.
I do know he's still got around 31 million shares.
I do know our prospects are the same as they were before he sold that paltry 3%.
I do know I'll be keeping my shares to see where this goes.
GLA
Especially the LTH crew.
GDF
Agree in principle with much of your flanks posts.
Having spent these last few months on a board where you could tell where posters stood it's now more complicated with all the newcomers. But I really appreciated the informed posting that went on from a few good LTHs - and you all know who you are so I shan't name you.
I put out a post a while back on the inflection points as I saw them, that ties in with this, IMHO.
Gap up on return to market.
Special situations funds and bidders pile in and create ongoing buying pressure that MMs mask.
Volatility as share rises and market gamesters return, (We'll just have to live with that even though Spik and Frank have gone) but its a rising price trend.
Bidders revealed by close this Wednesday as the disclosure docs need to be in.
Couple of bids announced and taken forward, market still frenetic.
Final bid numbers announced.
Possible hostile bid.
Deal or No Deal.
It's Russia so NN have, effectively, always controlled the table so to counterbalance this and maximise their return the BoD have had to use the levers they can.
VTB have a longstanding relationship with NN and have partnered with them previously on JVs. We know where they stand.
CITIC have the Chinese relationships. We know where they're at.
I'm not sure anyone else matters as they'd struggle to get a bid through governance processes if the flanks licence isn't firm.
UBS are our bankers and like to go large.
If I was NN, my ploy would have been to delay the MT flanks licence, through foul means or fair, to take that value off the table effectively. Then make an offer that hugely over-valued the company without the flanks but which would still hugely undervalue the company with the flanks approved (knowing as they would that the licence would be forthcoming sharpish once they acquired EUA). Under most circumstances that would buy the board.
The regulator was always going to insist the shares trade again (IMHO) so the increasing share value after a long stable (suspension) period works for the Board. There is no undisturbed price here for reference, so all bids have to be purely on perceived future value of asset.
Endgame, for me NN still win, but they have to pay nearer the full fair value for the company. (Which I don't believe to be Simply Wall Streets £8.77)
GLA
And thanks gain to the steadfast crew of LTHs.
P.S. I still plan to organise the pound party for Glasgow - even if we only reach 50p.
Well
That was an interesting opener given the rocky road of the suspension months.
I've never been convinced by the wildly outlying pps predictions - from Spikey's nonsense to the £8 opinions - but as I've already 20-bagged on my original investment I've got plenty wriggle room here.
I did top up even though 100k shares cost today me twice as much as a million shares first time round.
As I said before I'm happy to arrange the Glasgow pound party for all LTHs where we'd be hoping to see highlights of bigfatpayday's mankini run through Glasgow.
GLA
If this goes to plan I'll host a pound party somewhere tasty up here even without the mankinis, although bigfatpayday has promised twice now.
Lots of great distillery experiences around Scotland.
I cycled out to Glengoyne today on the mountain bike and cycled past Auchentoshan yesterday so don't overlook Glasgow, especially as the Pot Still in the town is always worth a visit.
A lot of folk pick an area and focus on that. There are about 15 distilleries in Speyside open to the public and only a couple less on Islay. Macallan just spent £140 million on their new distillery. Main thing is to sort out how you're getting round.
Slainte mhath.
I am indeed Glaswegian for my sins, though over the years I've worked more in various places around the world
I'm out the west side just about to head out for a mountain bike ride to the Glengoyne distillery. Unfortunately not for a taste.
Similar tale for me. I used to follow the iii BBs all the time until they ruined them with their 'upgrade'.
The recommendation on either the SXX or AMC board was the reason I invested way back in the sub 1p days.
Lost a lot of shared knowledge when that happened.
GLA