Member Info for TorquayFan

Inan that's not really a cogent response to a serious contribution from an Epidemiologist is it?

I'm very concerned about Family and Friends in England so I'm involved. OK ?

The Vallance and Whitty plan . . . under one microscope . .

"We talk about vaccines generating herd immunity, so why is this different? Because this is not a vaccine. This is an actual pandemic that will make a very large number of people sick, and some of them will die. Even though the mortality rate is likely quite low, a small fraction of a very large number is still a large number. And the mortality rate will climb when the NHS is overwhelmed " . . . .

. . . . "About that second wave: let me be clear. Second waves are real things, and we have seen them in flu pandemics. This is not a flu pandemic. Flu rules do not apply. There might well be a second wave, I honestly don’t know. But vulnerable people should not be exposed to a virus right now in the service of a hypothetical future."

Again IMO, BJ - attracted by 'too clever by half' ideas. A serious mistake which still makes BJ look like Einstein compared to Trump, but BJ has the strength to change course and the sooner the better. AIMVHO. GLA and Goodnight

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/m-epidemiologist-heard-britain-herd-123338478.html

Just the "Mail' but . . .

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8112995/Troops-streets-fight-against-coronavirus.html

Nice day all - I'm off !

"Ivy link agrees with my thoughts Isolate the 20%". Me too ! Plus take every other possible action of closedown and 'social distancing' to minimise the spread of Covid-19 amongst the 80% - methinks there'll still be plenty of virus around to start a fund of immunity.

You mention 'Flu'. The point is Flu is still around and the NHS already fully stretched but Covid-19 arrives with a mortality rate at least 10 times that of Flu ?

As for the economics - let's save lives first and sort the rest out later. Just MO. ATB

Nom I finally looked at the links in your 17.12 - in both cases very funny and impliedly frightening. Generally, I think Trump's idiotic complacency is going to cost the USA very many lives indeed before this is all over. But thanks. A bit of levity much needed.

Inan - in your 23.12 - "you are posting as if you know more than they do". No M8. It's MO but my opinion formed I hope with some common sense AND by watching events in recent months in the Nations affected so far by Covid-19 AND by reading the opinions of the apparently vast majority of OTHER experts around the World (not just the no doubt well intentioned Whitty and Vallance whose views have until now, attracted BJ) AND because I have watched in horror as many other Countries have suffered so much because they have acted too slowly at first. EARLY and DRASTIC action is in my admittedly unscientific opinion, the best route for any Country and jigger aspects such as 'herd immunity' and 'behavioural exhaustion'.

I hope you are taking good care of yourself M8. Did you look at the links below posted most helpfully by Ivy ?
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51892402
https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-open-letter-government-sars-cov-2-outbreak-response

Hi. Yes I'd seen that BBC report and many others, including some striking WHO comments on the UK's stance. My earlier post to Inan about BJ being 'too clever by half' sums up my feelings.

I like Boris but he is undeniably an eccentric. It's great to have 'experts' around but let's face it, they don't all agree so you have to choose which ones to listen to and IMO BJ got that wrong initially (understandably) but has moved to correct it.

It is sobering to wonder how many more Corona virus cases will have been generated by the likes of the Cheltenham Festival and other events which IMO BJ should have cancelled.

Re. 'comes back' - re. general comments I've seen, about Corona virus maybe becoming an annual event. Something to look forward to ! Stay safe all.

RW I was minding my own business (other than having a fret about corona virus) so thanks - very helpful indeed to wind up C7 again. C7 calm down - try not to get in a panic and just stay well.

YOU and Boris try to be too clever by half ! WE are not interested in 'herd immunity' but in controlling this virus ! NOW. NOT LATER. Sod the niceties - sort it out. Never mind - Boris has got there nat last. Come on Boris ! As for 'herd' stuff, by the time Covid-19 comes back, surely there'll be a vaccine ?

I thought Macron showed the right sort of common sense and action this week. Never thought I'd say that about an EU Member LOL.

Knowlesi. No problem with that. Changing your mind shows strength. I agree 100% and for that I credit Boris J now . As for Trump - I and most of the World are not sure that he has known what was going on at any stage. Or even now. And IMO you can not excuse Trump's banal and soppy responses by citing new information arising - it was surely clear from the start ?

The USA today so far, had made today only 15,000 tests - E & O E. I fear the USA will, in the end, suffer the biggest loss around the World because of his gross stupidity.

Repeat - changing your mind shows strength. I agree 100% ! What - no football ?

President Trump declares a 'State of Emergency' just two weeks after dismissing the Corona virus epidemic as a 'Democrat hoax' :-

"Taken together, this is a massive failure in leadership that stems from a massive defect in character. Trump is such a habitual liar that he is incapable of being honest, even when being honest would serve his interests. He is so impulsive, shortsighted, and undisciplined that he is unable to plan or even think beyond the moment. He is such a divisive and polarizing figure that he long ago lost the ability to unite the nation under any circumstances and for any cause. And he is so narcissistic and unreflective that he is completely incapable of learning from his mistakes. The president’s disordered personality makes him as ill-equipped to deal with a crisis as any president has ever been."

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/peter-wehner-trump-presidency-over/607969/

Inside that link - "Editor's Note: The Atlantic is making vital coverage of the coronavirus available to all readers. Find the collection here." Interesting . . .

Nice weekend all.

Take it easy - everyone is rooting for you and for everyone else too. Just TCOY eh ?

Maybe a pipe dream but who knows ?

" . . . . we are hopeful that in April some of the vaccines [that are being developed] will enter clinical research or they would be of use in emergency situations."

https://pharmaphorum.com/news/chinese-coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-for-trials-next-month/?

Chester - "One day Scancells luck will actually be positive...." Yes hopefully so !

Thanks for that Bermuda and good to know - (even though scant comfort). What we have to recognise now is that 'recruitment' on SCIB1 and Modi 1 may not recommence for many months . . .

The delay could be 3-6 months until well after Covid-19 has peaked ?

No doubt Scancell will use the time well and prep further but the overheads drip on and funds will be needed, but with 'data' still further away. Sorry to be so cheerful !

An excerpt from 28118 over there. Thanks to Bermuda . . . (hope you don't mind).

"The MHRA have today published the guidance 'Advice for Management of Clinical trials in relation to Coronavirus'.
Worth a quick read as it does give an insight into the issues facing companies running clinical trials. I know this won't be a popular view, but in the long run, the delays to both SCIB1 and Modi1 trials may actually turn out to have been fortuitous. By that I mean that the delays have been bad enough, but imagine if Scancell had incurred the massive costs of recruiting and treating patients and were midway through both trials only to find that Coronavirus led to breaks in protocol which impacted on data integrity. I would assume that everything is now on hold as far as new trials are concerned until the situation becomes much clearer."

https://mhrainspectorate.blog.gov.uk/2020/03/12/advice-for-management-of-clinical-trials-in-relation-to-coronavirus/

Not for the feint hearted . . .
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8103999/NHS-doctor-trapped-coronavirus-hit-Italy-begs-UK-Government-shut-EVERYTHING.html

Thanks Violindog. Good Luck and God be with you and yours. I'm a BJ fan but he has not got this right -not that it's easy. Just MO but he's done 10 times better than Buffoon USA. I posted this somewhere else :-

"BJ has fallen for some stylish bullshoot in 'contain, delay, research and mitigate'. Sweet nonsense. Research is irrelevant in the short term and contain, delay and mitigate are all targets for one same set of actions - MINIMISE.

Sporting events including EPL need postponing now. Night clubs, Pubs etc. need pegging back and attendance at the House of Commons needs to be reduced by at least 50% through 'pairing' arrangements. Etc. Etc. ! To ACT is not to panic . .

Violin - just don't read the reports from Italy and ATB.

Hi C7. One of 28 Trumpism's on corona virus. Was this just 13 days ago ? Yes ! February 27: Trump baselessly hints at a “miracle”. Wouldn't that be nice ?

" "Trump said: “It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear. And from our shores, we — you know, it could get worse before it gets better. It could maybe go away. We’ll see what happens. Nobody really knows. The fact is, the greatest experts — I’ve spoken to them all. Nobody really knows.” He made similar comments later in the outbreak, saying on March 10, “It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”

Facts First: There was no apparent basis for Trump’s claim that the virus will miraculously “disappear.” (He did immediately soften the claim by saying “nobody really knows,” but still.) " "

https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2020/03/11/fact-check-a-list-of-28-ways-trump-and-his-team-have-been-dishonest-about-the-coronavirus/

C7 Trump has been widely crititcised for HIS lack of awareness, preparation and complacency both inside the USA and around the World. Below from the DT a few days ago :-

""The President of the United States was seeking to reassure the nation about the coronavirus outbreak. Where better to make a statement than at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta? To ram home the import of the president’s words, he was flanked by the center’s director, Robert Redfield, and the administration’s Health and Human Services Secretary, Alex Asar. So far, so good. But then Donald Trump opened his mouth.

“I like this stuff. You know my uncle was a great person. He was at MIT. He taught at MIT for, I think, like, a record number of years. He was a great supergenius, Dr John Trump.”

Uh-huh. Anything else, Mr President?

“I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it... Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.”

Maybe he should have. The lesson is that whatever experts a politician surrounds himself with, if he wants to ramble off into unknown, irrelevant and, frankly, terrifying territory at a time of national crisis, he will do so if he is narcissistic and ego-driven enough.""

Trump's egotism and incompetence with Corona virus in the USA may even cost him re-election. Stay safe . .