Member Info for TorquayFan

"Obviously it is important to learn lessons for the future but now is not the time imo for recriminations as our sole focus should be on fighting this disease."

As a Poster you have my respect and to an extent I agree with your 'implore' above. But 'what good does it do', if the Govt. ain't got it right ? We all bow down and say, 'That's OK' ?

No we don't. "Herd Immunity" was in my humble opinion, a target against all logic and experience available. Delaying 'suppression' or 'minimization' is an aberration.

It's easy to take the mickey because I'm not in the UK, but I care. And I think major mistakes are being made and that doesn't make for a better outcome.

C7 - your allegations I protested are all the more ridiculous because, I remember my Father, telling me about the persecution you refer to, when I was a Child - he said, "stand up for what you see is the truth, or you see what can happen if you don't - it might be one voice alone but" . . . (or words to that effect).

BTW - this bizarre discussion on a 'TF' header is NOTHING to do with me. GLA.

'Seeking approval' - really ?

China with 1.3 billion population had 3000 + deaths (reportedly) and Italy / Spain with circa 60 million population, 5000 / 1000 deaths so far (approx). So it seems the way you handle Covid-19 has some effect on the outcome.

As it happens there's not 'constant negativity' elsewhere, as can be seen.

Unashamedly yours. Take care and BFN

It seems that even before the inevitable 'tsunami', the NHS is not in good shape. Valuable to have your insights and that was shocking to read. You take care and GL to All.

Your 22.03 - "TF I would ask you this sincerely, in spite of the issues we have which are very clear, is there anything you can see that that the Government has missed?? "

Miss one - UK Govt. and it's Advisors could see the experiences of China and S. Korea when they decided on the 'herd immunity'approach.
Miss two - the overwhelming majority of Epidemiologists and the WHO advised suppression. Miss three - after a total U-turn away from 'herd-immunity', Govt. measures and communication, have obviously not been strong enough.

Your 19.39 - "Ray, tremendous link, still working through it to undertand it fully."

Regarding the hammer and the dance, more hammer please . . . the conclusion here is crystal clear IMO

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

"On one side, countries can go the mitigation route: create a massive epidemic, overwhelm the healthcare system, drive the death of millions of people, and release new mutations of this virus in the wild. On the other, countries can fight. They can lock down for a few weeks to buy us time, create an educated action plan, and control this virus until we have a vaccine.
Governments around the world today, including some such as the US, the UK or Switzerland have so far chosen the mitigation path. That means they’re giving up without a fight. They see other countries having successfully fought this, but they say: “We can’t do that!”. Unfortunately, millions of lives are still at stake."

I follow that quote in it's context BUT if Cummings accepted the Whitty / Vallance mistake, then that is 3 'Advisors' I'd like to see, WALK. Not from anger but for BJ to have wider and IMO better advice. BJ still being berated for 'pussyfooting' around. Rightly IMHO. TCOY's

I realise that. A famous Thai actress with C-19 now, lists my M8's Steve's Restaurant in Laem Sing, as one of her her recent visits. I take my recycle bycle to LS every day. But I've not seen Steve for 10 days however. I guess he's bricking it now. He's 60 and very fit fortunately.

Take care all and Mother's Day - how do you handle that !

. . . are more than a bit batty !

Inan - 80% of the 400 cases are in BKK and some Malls are closed. Thai Premier was cancelled 4 weeks ago, Moto GP cancelled and the Songkran Festival is postponed until further notice. Bars and Night clubs closed. But you can still find a quiet Restaurant. Just 1 death so far and C-19 has been around for ages, with workers coming back from Wuhan (normally 45 flights a week) and S.Korea. If you fly to Thailand apparently you need a Covid-free certificate. Borders slowly closing here and there.

. . . . the experiences of China, S. Korea and other Countries was there to observe and the advice of the WHO and almost all Epidemiologists including a collective of 200 at one point, criticising the inital tactics. However we just don't agree on this C7 and never will.

Unfortunately it will be perfectly obvious later whether BJ was listening to the right advice and taking the right decisions in the early stages. But it's not easy God knows ! However there is no doubt at all that most of the present closedown could have been transacted 10 days ago.

It's the here and now that matters as you say. In terms of better news, the development of Covid-19 in Thailand seems very slow - can this be put down to heat ? Hard to say but roll on the UK summer - hopefully the virus will not be so aggressive when your weather warms up !

" . . . . epidemiologists have been puzzled by the fact that Thailand has seen so few cases of COVID-19. While it spread at terrifying speed to tens of thousands of people in South Korea, Italy and now most other countries, the number of confirmed cases in Thailand remains comparatively small: 322, including 50 announced Friday, and just a single death. In nearby Malaysia, authorities have confirmed 1,030 cases and three deaths."

Some reason for you to hope in this, that's why I post it. I'm not complacent about things here and am most fearful for the UK. ATB

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-the-slow-spread-of-coronavirus-in-thailand-offers-hope-warmer-weather/

"5) Stay at home as much as possible. Work from home if you possibly can. You may have to go buy groceries and medicine, of course, but make the trips quick and purposeful.
6) Wash your hands thoroughly after you have been in public places, for a full 20 seconds, soaping up thoroughly and being sure to get between the fingers.
7) Please avoid disseminating social media claims that the situation is not serious or is being exaggerated. This is a national crisis and conveying misinformation to your friends and family may put their lives in danger.

Thank you for taking the time to read this and stay safe and healthy in the coming weeks.”

Respectfully,
Erika Rangel, MD, Director of Surgical Critical Care, Brigham and Women’s Faulkner Hospital Shawn Rangel, MD, Pediatric Surgery, Children’s Hospital Boston Asaf Bitton, MD, Executive Director Ariadne Labs and Internal Medicine, BWH Daniel O’connor, MD, Pediatrics, Longwood Pediatrics and Children’s Hospital Boston Beth O’connor, MD, Pediatrics, Roslindale Pediatrics Vandana Madhavan, MD, Clinical Director of Pediatric Infectious Disease, MGH Parag Amin, MD, Pediatrics, Centre Pediatrics Christy Cummings, MD, Neonatology, Children’s Hospital Boston Eric Bluman, MD, Orthopedic Surgery, BWH Trimble Augur, MD, Internal Medicine, Hebrew Rehabilitation Center Dasha Weir, MD, Pediatric gastroenterology Amy Evenson Warren, Transplant Surgery, BIDMC William Oldham, MD, PhD, Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, BWH James Kryzanski, MD, Neurosurgery, Tufts Medical Center Ben Zendejas-Mummert, MD, Pediatric Surgery, Children’s Hospital Boston Johanna Iturrino Moreda, MD, Gastroenterology, BIDMC David Berg, MD, Cardiology and Cardiac Critical Care, BWH Jennifer Crombie, MD, Hematology Oncology."

GLA

"Suppose you catch the virus. You will give it to 3 other people, and they will each give it to three others, and so forth. Here is how the math works, where you, the “index case,” are the first line:
1
3
9
27
81
243
729
2,187
6,561
19,683
59,046
177,147
531,441
1,594,323
4,782,969
14,348,907

So, in just 15 steps of transmission, the virus has gone from just one index case to 14.3 million other people. Those 15 steps might take only a few weeks. With school out and lots of playdates, maybe less. The first person may be young and healthy Brookline child, but many of those 14 million people will be old and sick, and they will likely die because they got a virus that started in one person's throat.
R0 is not fixed – it can be lowered by control measures. If we can get the number below 1, the epidemic will die out. This is the point of the quarantines and social distancing, but we are not doing it fast enough.

In the US, we have to slow down the virus. American hospitals, Boston hospitals, have limited resources. We have a fixed number of ventilators and an impending calamity on our hands. Our Italian critical care colleagues have shared with us that they simply do not have enough resources (ventilators, physicians and nurse, critical care beds), and are forced to choose who lives and dies based on old tenets of wartime triage. Older patients do not even get a ventilator and die of their pneumonia. These are decisions nobody should have to face, and we are only 11 days behind Italy’s fate. Their hospitals are quite advanced, and we are no better in Boston. As doctors, we are desperately trying to prepare for the onslaught of patients in the coming weeks. It is already beginning. This is an opportunity for you as the district leadership the time to be aggressive and help us fight this by “Flattening the Curve”.

We implore you, as a group of Boston’s doctors preparing to fight this, to help us. Please send a new email to ALL the Brookline school district families. Social distancing is painful. We know that kids have cabin fever, they are pleading to see their friends, they may have birthday parties coming up or special events they have been looking forward to. All of us need to work and childcare is a big worry. But we need to overcome these issues and boredom for the coming weeks so that we can survive this with as few deaths as possible. What does that mean?

1) No playdates, not even 1:1.
2) No small gatherings, no meetings between a couple families, even for birthday parties.
3) Avoid trampoline parks, climbing gyms, restaurants, movie theaters, anything in an enclosed area. Many of these places are advertising increased cleaning and hygiene. This is not sufficient! Do not go.
4) Cancel planned vacations for the next month. Avoid airline travel that is not an emergency. Many airlines and rental agencies are offering penalty free cancellations." (cont'd)

IMO it's impossible to argue that a simple close down situation in the UK could not have been implemented two weeks earlier . . . . from Boston USA, this letter is signed by dozens of mds all from Boston's revered hospital system and sent to me by the wife of the former ceo of the Cleveland Clinic. Passed to me (TF) by a Friend . . .

“As there is so much confusion, misinformation and denial on social media about the coronavirus we hope to explain, in plain language, why the experts see this as such an emergency. Many people are reading the claim online that this virus is a lot like the viruses that cause colds, and that if you get it, it will probably just seem like a bad cold and you are very unlikely to die. Depending on who you are, this may be true, but there is more to this story that is key to our outcome as a community.

This is a coronavirus that is new to the human population. Although it is related to the viruses that cause colds, and acts a lot like them in many ways, nobody has ever been exposed to this before, which means nobody has any immunity to it.

The virus is now moving explosively through the human population, spreading through respiratory secretions and 10 times more contagious that the flu or cold. Although many people will recover, about 20% will wind up with a serious pneumonia that will require hospitalization. Some will be so ill from the pneumonia that they will die. We estimate this may be 2-3%, but it is higher in Italy’s experience, partially because the healthcare system was overwhelmed so rapidly. In those over age 70, the death rate is 8-20%. So if a child catches it on a playdate, they can easily transmit it to their grandmother as easily as touching the same doorknob or countertop.

Scientists measure the spread of an epidemic by a number called R0, or “R naught.” That number is calculated this way: for every person who develops the illness, how many other people do they give it to before they are cured (or dead) and no longer infectious? The R0 for coronavirus appears to be a number close to 3 – an extremely frightening number for such a deadly disease." (cont'd)

That's nearly right Hanoi BUT it was actually 1969 when Swindon Town beat the Arsenal 3-1 at Wembley and that London closed down ! Mind you, the Gunners went on to greater things !

Thanks for your reply Ruck. Actually the first two graphs deal with the numbers of actual deaths only. Re. the 1st graph - the shape of the China curve may not be accurate, but around 3200 it has undoubtedly gone flat while Italy's curve is still exponential. ATB

Some better news hopefully - maybe the ventilators will arrive with high tech steering wheels if F1 or with hydraulic legs and a front end bucket if from JCB :-

"Matt Han**** has announced that over six companies have made ventilator prototypes, as he insisted the equipment could be in the NHS within "a matter of days". The Health Secretary said there was a "massive operation" to ensure that hospitals have the life-saving kit they need to tackle the coronavirus. He said the response from manufacturers to the Government's call for ventilators have been "unbelievable". Mr Han**** said: "In a matter of days some of these top engineering companies have already turned their hand to this effort and already got their prototypes out." "

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/20/politics-latest-news-six-companies-have-made-ventilators-matt/

Looking at the graph comparing Italy to China, at the same level, deaths in Italy are still increasing exponentially. And the death rate in UK is higher than that of Italy at the same stage . . . I'd be interested in any thoughts. TCOY

"As hospitals across Italy continue to battle to save their influx of coronavirus patients, the number of deaths in the country has now surpassed that in China. In less than a month the number who have died of Covid-19 in Italy has hit 3,405, as those who were infected in the early stages of the outbreak begin to succumb to the disease. Meanwhile the number of deaths in the UK continue to rise. It has now been two weeks since the first confirmed death from coronavirus in the UK - and since then the number who have died has been rising at a faster rate than in Italy."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/19/coronavirus-deaths-rising-faster-uk-italy/

Kat I made that mistake too. It's not Ivy but a tweet from Prof Fergusson apparently.

I made that mistake too. Apparently Ivy is OK but Prof. Fergusson isn't. ATB

OK Inan thanks for pointing that out ! Phew ! You take care too . . .

Sorry to hear about Prof. Fergusson and about you too Ivy. I'm hoping you have no underlying issues and will anyway, fight the little devil off the way you do ! Let us know how you're doing and GET WELL SOON. ATVB.

Whilst F1 Suppliers are skilled units they are surely not being asked to redesign medical ventilators? If F1 manufacturers can add to the supply that's great of course but I would have thought the existing manufacturers with their specialist suppliers in train are the best avenue to ramp up numbers. All hands on deck though and the sooner the better. Interesting.