Member Info for TorquayFan

"Test, Test, Test" that being the key as widely expressed. Yep !

Otherwise, in a jot we'll have Covid-19 Healthcare for Covid-19 Patients. But never mind, this too - Germany had 29.2 intensive care beds per 100,000 people. Italy had 12.5. The UK had just 6.6.

Good luck BJ and UK and I just hope Ray's idea comes to be. Or hot weather ?

Ray your 10.32 best post of the day IMHO. Thanks.

Good luck to him - just shows the contagion is . . . . . . .

Your 07.56 to me is misleading - for the 20,000, see my 01.12 yesterday and the words of Prof. Neil Fergusson. As for "any death is bad news but you accept 20,000 ???? strange". NO I DON'T "accept" 20,000 at all, as I made clear in 17th 23.09, 18th 10.54 etc. etc. Hopefully the toll can be a fraction of that, particularly if BJ shows his mettle ! Tough times and GL. BFN

Is that 'runway' to take off or 'runaway' to not much ?

28193 etc. "Clear evidence that Govt original proposal was the wrong one and once the results from imperial modelling confirmed that a different approach was needed then the govt did an about turn and changed its approach probably saving over 200,000 lives. As mentioned many scientists and WHO and many other country’s had already seen the value of the drastic measures approach a long time before UK govt."

[Professor John Oxford]: "The currently proposed idea of herd immunity is getting awfully close to social eugenics. There have been people, quite senior in their field, sying things like ‘if we just let this virus rip through, maybe it will clear out the wards with elderly people blocking our beds…’ – That kind of commentary is dangerous, shocking, and we cannot allow it."

(Phew - as an older Fella I'm glad to see that ! )

https://thoughteconomics.com/virus-pandemics/

Germany seems better prepared for a Pandemic than some other Nations :-

"Intensive care beds can mean the difference between life and death for those who become seriously ill with the virus, and dire reports from northern Italy have told of doctors being forced to choose which patients get them. Germany has 28,000 ICU beds. By contrast, the UK has just 4,000. And 25,000 of Germany’s already have the ventilators seriously ill patients need. At the outbreak of the crisis, Germany had 29.2 intensive care beds per 100,000 people. Italy had 12.5. The UK had just 6.6."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/18/does-germany-have-low-coronavirus-death-rate/

The Police - very funny. A great track.

". . . .with my own conditions which are foremost in my mind, do I just self isolate??"

Yes you do. ATB

Just to raise the tone a little - Russell Watson and Hayley Westenra

https://uk.video.search.yahoo.com/search/video;_ylt=AwrT4pLRBXJedFAAzDxLBQx.;_ylu=X3oDMTEyc3J1bmhmBGNvbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjk4MDJfMQRzZWMDc2M-?p=russell+watson+and+hayley+westenra&fr=yfp-t#id=4&vid=b2795ff66a14d5f75535d1e9a1276a14&action=view

"Italy's doctors warn of 'catastrophic' situation as coronavirus death toll rises 345 to 2,503 - but infections show signs of slowing".

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8123307/Italys-doctors-warn-catastrophic-situation-coronavirus-death-toll-rises-345-2-503.html

Apparently France is going to completely close it's borders to UK and Ireland shortly if the UK does not tighten up it's measures.

20,000 deaths would be a good outcome now according to Prof. Neil Fergusson. That's shocking of course. Whilst it's hard to trust the figured from China, they seem to have turned Covid-19 around at a cost, so far, of around 3,000 lives.

Can we can hope for a lower toll than that if the Govt. acts boldly ?

. . . "the country’s foremost epidemiologist and adviser on the outbreak’s trajectory, explained to a small group of science journalists why 20,000 coronavirus deaths in the UK would be a win. The alternative would leave 260,000 dead, he explained" . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . "Britain has now pivoted and moved to a strategy of virus suppression. It’s the path the World Health Organisation (WHO) has called for from the outset, and the one which China pioneered and virtually all other developed countries are now following."

Not "contain, delay, research, mitigate" but minimise !

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/terrifying-data-behind-government-coronavirus-lockdown/

An excellent link posted by Ivy elsewhere - worth the long read :-

"[Professor John Oxford]: The currently proposed idea of herd immunity is getting awfully close to social eugenics. There have been people, quite senior in their field, sying things like ‘if we just let this virus rip through, maybe it will clear out the wards with elderly people blocking our beds…’ – That kind of commentary is dangerous, shocking, and we cannot allow it."

"[Professor Christian Bréchot]: Politicians face an extremely difficult situation, but they must be humble and work with facts and experts. It is easy for politicians to be accused of being alarmist but they have a job to do; and that means they have to take a serious stance. What I do not agree with is what has happened in the UK or USA where the situation was downplayed, and then they had to u-turn, this causes a breakdown of trust. You have to be consistent, you have to explain that this is a big deal."

https://thoughteconomics.com/virus-pandemics/

Thanks Ivy

C7 your post that the UK CSO - "Says...............we hope measures put into place limit the amount of deaths to 20,000!!!..............or less. Stay. safe guys. Frightening."

Indeed it is frightening - would this be the same CSO applauded for calmly advising the PM that the UK should embark on the 'herd immunity' course carrying the possibility of 250,000 deaths? I think so.

20,000 is indeed a frightening figure. China seems to have turned Covid-19 around at a cost, so far. of a few thousand lives, so a figure of 20,000 seems very high. I believe we can hope for a lower toll than that if the Govt. acts boldly.

Meantime, I hope you are already tucked up 100% at home. Good luck to you.

Thanks for that Ray. The Prof. concludes 'about right' in terms of balancing the costs on the economy against the impact of the epidemic. Elsewhere comments that a 3 week delay in China could have caused a 2000% increase in casualties don't help me feel relaxed that 'about' is good enough. With the right Advisors we might have been on a strong path earlier - by days or a week or two ? That has a major effect . . .

The fatuous 'control, delay,research, mitigate' policy mantra was pathetic and apparently, might have cost 250,000 lives for 'herd immunity' to some degree. Yet BJ still has the same Advisors ?

About a week ago I commented, "BJ being 'too clever by half' sums up my feelings. I like Boris but he is undeniably an eccentric. It's great to have 'experts' around but let's face it, they don't all agree so you have to choose which ones to listen to and IMO BJ got that wrong initially (understandably) but has moved to correct it. It is sobering to wonder how many more Corona virus cases will have been generated by the likes of the Cheltenham Festival and other events which IMO BJ should have cancelled."

He and his Advisors are still getting this wrong - softly softly isn't getting through.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8123413/Workers-stand-LOT-closer-two-metres-apart-crammed-tube.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8120599/Brits-flout-social-distancing-warnings-hits-pubs-clubs.html

Simpering support for the 'powers that be' is not enough IMHO. ATB

"Professor Francois Balloux, chair in computational biology at University College London, says that for an epidemiologist, the two biggest unknowns are the virus’s ability (or not) to adapt to the seasons and the immunity (if any) it gives those who are infected and recover.

“There are two major unknowns at this stage. We don't know to what extent Covid-19 transmission will be seasonal. And We don’t know if Covid-19 infection induces long-lasting immunity”, he said in a viral thread on Twitter.

“How long immunity lasts for following covid-19 infection is the biggest unknown. Comparison with other Coronaviridae suggests it may be relatively short-lived (i.e. months). If this were to be confirmed, it would add to the challenge of managing the pandemic.

“Short-lived immunisation would defeat both ‘flattening the curve’ and ‘herd immunity’ approaches”.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-making-sense-covid-19s-known-unknowns/

"Professor Neil Ferguson, of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, worked on research that warned of a possible 250,000 deaths from the virus if more draconian measures were not taken. "

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-outbreak-strategy-deaths-101921620.html

. . . from the latest advice about over 70's from BJ, in a DT summary - "Mr Johnson said there should be “no exceptions”, including MPs and peers. It means that around two dozen MPs over 70 - including Jeremy Corbyn - should now stay at home."

Corbyn is in his last few weeks as Labour Leader.

Give it a rest - the view I expressed from the start was widely propounded at the time. If you don't agree, fair enough. We saw how China and S. Korea managed to bring this under control some weeks ago and the lessons were there from the WHO and most epidemiologists. I'd like to move on and wish BJ luck now - the mistake is in the past.

We are where we are and we have to take it from there. Good luck.