RE: Nickel, dollar17 Jan 2024 10:57
Wasarunner
Absolutely correct and the same is happening in rare earth mining companies. China is high grading mines where its companies operate overseas storing up market issues later on. If the HZM lenders can find a way to get through 2024 and H1 2025, they will be a much better place.
If HZM was completing the mine this month as planned, the share price would be nose diving from 130p. Inflation would have found its way into the base cost of operations and HZM would have made losses throughout this year and utilising precious high grade nickel resources. The accrued debt being added with more nickel onto the market could easily have been $100M. The SP in those circumstances would have fallen to 80p. So whatever happened we were getting our butts kicked. However, two years on I would see nickel prices at $22000 plus a tonne as base case recovering $100M overspend.
As for going private, that is quite a commitment for one entity to undertake. I suspect share the risk is a more likely outcome.