Member Info for Tornadotony

I mentioned clearing 10p yesterday. My next target forecast is 20p after normal market activity beyond 1 January. As time progresses the chances of funding increase. The logic being that it is easy to say no if the HZM events ran completely out of control. If the news is more promising to support the due diligence is taking more time to search out for more problems if any to avoid another hiatus. We should retest the high this morning sometime next week as is how I see it and edge higher towards 20p at pre-funding phase. Tony

Publican declared I was in some kind of fantasy world in response.

Classic tree shake. To see 115p plus we have to go through something like this. Centamin and gold on same RSI and stochastics on 5 hourly. Gold one hour RSI reading is just 16. I can not recall a time ever when the RSI has hit that low. Someone has dumped a huge amount of paper gold. They probably now want the physical.

5 hourly RSI just outside oversold and stochastics pushed back to zero. Now set up for a rally at some point.

Thanks Sundrum

20 odd minutes from GDX USA open and it looks ugly on the pre-market price.

Hi Steve

I presume you have taken some off. I suspect we will see the 95p handle.

Tony

At present Shanta will take 750,000 shares at 12.93 sell and would not take a 200k buy. Market is very happy to take your shares off you.

Today we have Centamin, HoC, Fresnillo, Sol gold, Endeavour all selling off as gold retreats which is going as expected for the start of the year. Serabi is the only miner going up and it all it takes is an argument between a handful of miners over pay or whatever and everybody is then desperate to get out as production stops and it is problems like it that make it a nightmare to buy and hold.

So far no RNS showing another gold mine buyer. I am quite happy to wait and see what happens.

Unfortunately not thus far but not a brilliant day on the market anyway. I was hoping to see the 23p handle. The work completed was essential. Would be nice if someone posted photographs which can say a 1000 words.

Would be healthy as it rids overbought signals to consolidate a rally later in the month. Pull back relatively modest in consolidation like mode.

Pedro we shall see if another bidder starts buying quite possibly from today.

Interesting to see if the pre-work generates a positive rally.

Shareminator

Of course we know why the figures were as indicated as money was reinvested. We are talking at cross purposes. I pointed out what Dekker was looking at and from that perspective he points out what is written in Shanta reports. Dekker then indicates from his cursory look through that Centamin would not be interested in Shanta. It does not mean another gold miner makes an offer tomorrow and sees Shanta in the same light as the analyst who wrote on X. Centamin have made a hash of buying gold mines such as Apella in Burkina Faso and so they would do more due diligence. The fact is that information is not available as stand alone data in how Shanta presents its reports and so on that basis he would see Centamin not proceeding.

Dekker was referring to returns to shareholders and the inability to work out Luika economic costs from Shanta reports.

Feels like a score draw very similar to the last half trading day of 2023. Consolidating or indecisive. A temporary pull back could arise to be less overbought and yield a stronger rally in the follow up. Suggested in Gold eagle last Saturday. Miners to move in line with gold price directions.

From the 2022 annual report;

Stripping assets are merged under plant and equipment and presented in a way that it does not identify Luika stripping mining ratios between waste ore and mineral ore in open pits. The company is free to present the information in that way, but it is not possible to elucidate that part of the mining cost and particular aspects of the mine plan economic performance. Dekker is correct on that point.

Although Luika helped generate a $4.67M net profit in 2021 and a $6M profit in 2022 the overall data was a $6.16M loss attributable to shareholders in 2021 and it was a $2.3M loss in 2022. It is not possible to economically assess the Luika mine performance in the presentation of the 2022 annual report accounts. Dekker is correct in that company reports show losses to shareholder returns in the accounts and this was evident for 2021 and 2022.

Of course we had dividends and part of the cash call at 16.5p was given back in dividends in following years. This annoyed some of the shareholders at the time seeing part of the money being used that way and calling down so many shares in dilution then necessary. Dekker is correct in that very little has been returned to shareholders overall in Shanta's operations. In fact the annual report states for 2022 that over 95% of company profit value is retained within Tanzania.

Another analyst has given his view on Luika and if I apply a reserves and resources model I identified in the ground values and assessment on production mining reserves. However, if the AISC economically to mine price is not well defined the values associated in the report may not include all the costs. It is possibly they may do so, but in essence what we have is just a few very broad brush tables. Hence, we can end up with different perspectives of what we think the real value is. As Publican has stated the real value is ultimately what somebody is prepared to pay for it.

Tony

Equanimity

I am not encouraging anybody to do anything in particular! Shanta Gold was a stock I have supported for some time and I hold quite a few shares. What is helpful is to start finding out what we do not know. The July RNS was an unaudited report. We have a new CFO who came into position new in February. We now await to see if a new bidder arrives and they start buying Shanta shares at the current price. Tony

Publican

As you probably know, Tibbs is a long term Centamin investor and became aware of the Dekker report on Centamin when I shared it with him years ago on the LSE Board. Tibbs has been in contact with Dekker for years.

Your absolutely right, the company is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. At the moment it is 13.65p. We await to see if another offer goes in. I bet if Gold Fields were going to make a bid they would ask someone like Dekker to go through the details with a fine tooth comb. The point Dekker is really making is that he can not find information that would normally be published or easily found in company reports. They could exist and made available to a buyer, but we may not have enough info to do our own critical analysis. Tony

Hi GGG

The analyst in question is attached who started his career at Gold Fields. He has uncovered some quite disturbing bad CEO practices in other gold miner companies over the past few years. Centamin refuted all of Dekkers claims about mining practices taking place there with void areas in the underground mine being counted as metric tonnes of material containing gold and their management of waste stripping not being managed and a new CEO later revealed all what he said was true and probably why the previous CEO was removed and that was after the owner also sold a shed load of shares.

https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2018/10/04/a-mining-analysts-perspective-on-the-industry.html

Thanks Mr Tibbs for getting the analyst that we both know from South Africa to look at it.

Interesting to see the company abandoned August interim results for 2022 and 2023 as they reported in August in previous years. The company mentions Luika at $1009 per ounce cost and $1293 AISC for the first six months of this year, but unaudited in the July 2023 RNS.

A factor that impacted the company for many years was the Tanzania Government withholding some $23M in cash from the Luika mine income from 2017-2019 which has yet to be repaid back to the company. The company has also withheld recent drilling results on the Luika mine on replacing its reserves and resources since December 2022. I therefore believe it would have given some kind of return if it were not for that issue in earlier years and we would know if Luika was being extended by resource to reserves conversions which it has done for a number of years. A lot of miners had a tough time back in 2014 and 2015 with low gold prices to give context to the analyst comments.

What will be telling here is whether any company makes an offer in the coming weeks or requests registering an interest and is allowed to undertake due diligence. Centamin is committed to its Doropo project and assets it has locally with key drilling results due in Q1 of this year. I agree with the analyst that Centamin probably has a lot of ongoing interest within Egypt at this time and may not bid for Shanta Gold with what they have committed themselves to already.

Another analyst has valued the Tanzanian two mine assets at around 16p ignoring West Kenya that does not have a functioning mine. In some regards the Patel offer to go private is market testing the price for sale at 14.85p to take their bid off the table. Any buyer is a company that needs more ounces in production for the intermediate future and likes the West Kenya exploration asset.

All the best Tony

Just to let you folks know Lombard Odier are involved in supporting a deal regarding Shanta Gold which some analysts are starting to call out as a bit suspect. As we see out 2023, I would say business standards have fallen in line with many other areas to serve a small elite. 2024 may deliver a more interesting time.

Happy New Year everybody and good health which is the best wealth to have.

1755 and a few others,

There is a possibility of a pull back on gold and gold miners in early January. Secondly, any other gold miner company has had no chance to respond what the Shanta Board have done. The market was informed 20 December. It takes time internally to evaluate how a company may respond to a new opportunity. The Christmas break provides an excellent time to think strategically. As everyone returns to the office and Shanta itself bothers to pick up a phone, operate a functionally communication centre and has anybody to respond to enquiries with any kind of authority or guidance on what to do, a competitive offer to what is proposed can not progress. I would be interested to see what happens by 8th of January. By that time real decision makers will be around to deal or no deal. Any company being rejected after making an offer above 14.85p should go public on what this board is doing and make their offer known.