Member Info for Tornadotony

Those who want to trade should buy Centamin which frequently has a tight buy sell range and no stamp charge. When the difference is 0.4p on Shanta which is 3.3% and sometimes higher it becomes very difficult to sell and buy back with a profit. On top of that we could have good news RNS data hopefully and in that situation your struggling to get a buy at the open. Today is triple witching on options trading and sometimes it is best to do zippo on days like this.

Chinasyndrome

" expected in Q4 2023" was the time line given in all documentation although modest slippage to January may have occurred. As you know they are not putting raw gypsum down columns and it is like saying Pensana are going to irradiate the whole of southern Angola by their process which is equally absurd. Tony

Publican

As you are so interested in my buying HZM, my average down from 134p to 101p was no cost as I got it all back on trading between 8p to 12p thanks to your help. The average down from 101p to 65p was covered by a winning trade on another stock in the portfolio (which I bought back lower and has shot up in value since). I am now waiting for an RNS to find out how HZM is meeting its current costs and then decide what I do next. At least my average HZM position is lower than what La Mancha currently hold and that was I wanted to do at this time until we get a better idea of what is going on. Tony

PS If you want to rally the price up again by all means let us know.

I know the 14.19 afterwards was also a buy afterwards. Impossible to get a 13 handle buy in this morning.

Apologies on typos in previous.

Publican

The reason I have looked into Onca Puma is that it is four times the size of the existing HZM mine build and was a staged operation. It is worth $3B as a mine complex in Brazil today. If line 2 comes into play on the new HZM plan it will be half the size of Onca Puma achieved at approximately half the capex spend at $1.2B. Onca puma got into the same issues as HZM for the most part. Let us say the shares triple up on a new plan with 538M called up. What is HZM worth as being a 1/3 constructed project on 29,000 tonnes per annum. They banks only contributed to line 1. Do they want a play on a line 2 and put in $200M on top of what they held back. Let us assume another $100M is kept back for anything unexpected in line 2 build. So the new call to funding is now $800M for both lines. If the banks take $200M it requires $600M from everybody else. The market is then looking at a totally different project to before. Any announcement of project expansion like this would elevate the share price probably 8 fold. The share price then becomes 64p. The 538M shares now raise $344M and a commercial bond is organised for $250M and say is awarded as the first line gets fully completed before line 2.

Publican nobody keeps coming back to a website like this and pressing the same points over and over again if they have no interest in the stock. A lot of investors are seriously down here and what is the point selling off to save 5% of an investment if it is already all discounted as future years CGT asset if held in trading accounts. If somebody wants to take a punt on a different outcome to your prescription it is there money and their choice. If others see different models to you on what could happen they are as good as yours without any of us sitting in an HZM Board room. Just because you have experienced one outcome it does not mean that it repeats in this situation although it might. Tony

Do we have anyone here who was invested in Vale back in 2008 on the Onca Puma mine. The overrun issues look very similar to what has happened on HZM. The original Capex for a 16,000 tonnes per year staged production was $726M nearly 15 years ago. The 58,000 tonnes per year target was $2.3B Capex. In the meantime around $1.3B in nickel mine production in Australia looks like it is going to be written off.

I hope La Mancha can show the mine remains profitable as a project with the higher opex, capex projections and they can model it on say $17,000 a tonne.

If La Mancha were going to write off $77M we could know in the next 48 hours. Hence the nadir at this time and why project recovery models are being thought of.

A lot of profit was taken above 15p.

I am hoping to buy lots of RBW shares at much lower prices so grateful on this occasion for the down ramping.

I tend to avoid any buying or selling on triple witching.

https://www.thestreet.com/dictionary/t/triple-witching

If La Mancha took part to hold their position in HZM it would cost £37.2M and at 3 to 1 they have 248M shares with an average value between 46 to 47p. This fits well with a plus 60p share price on production and gives La Mancha a mean average return of 5% per year over 6 years of being invested. What we do not know is the exact overrun cost requirement. If someone only buys the mine debt to remove the liability La Mancha loses £77M. The fund could take a 7% hit for the remainder of their portfolio to recover but I think they will look at the recovery option with the project being turned around. It is a big decision for the fund to take and I believe the next RNS will inform us if they remain determined to proceed ahead. It does imply others are making the same decision at this time. In some ways both Theo and Publican are correct on what may happen. I am leaning towards La Mancha staying the course and taking a longer term view. I also suspect some of their other investments have been doing well and that may well encourage them not to give up on HZM.

Publican

What you saying is the company would be delisted to a private entity. The private entity has to make an offer for the shares. The entity has to pay the same amount per share to La Mancha as it would pay for a PI share. If the offer price is zero then the cornerstones, La Mancha and Glencore wipe out their value to a private entity making the offer. If they offer everyone else bar PIs into a deal they benefit and PIs get nothing at all is something new to me. How does such a mechanism work when the plant and asset is valued greater then existing debt? I can understand why RMM gave shareholders nothing, but the situation here is not the same as the company has considerable assets against the debt.

Would it be easier to do a 6 to 1 rights issues at 20p and say to all investors decide on risk with perhaps Glencore prepared to be an underwriter for shares not taken up.

Tony

Getting one over everyone else in previous.

In a difficult situation intelligent businesses resolve problems with teamwork and partnership as that result works best for all the investing parties. The idea of going through administration or one investing party getting one everyone else on a project this so far advanced does not make a lot of sense to me.

Thus far I have carried out one average down to 65p and traded on publicans entry to recover most of what I put in to get down to that level. I have kept cash back to act if we get a favourable RNS.

Mumbles

The arrangement with the Japanese off taker. Do you know if the off take Angolan mined ore was to the grade that would have been delivered to Saltend but as a carbonate instead of sulphate. Thanks Tony

Thanks Theo

Hourly RSI now on 23. The 5 hourly on 30.2 and about to enter oversold. Daily on 48 and now falling faster as it was 52 a couple of hours ago. Stochastics were hitting zero this morning. I expect a seasonal bottom in play to arrive in the coming trading days. With USA GDP debt hitting 150%, (UK at 98%, EU 85%) it is a surprise to see the euro not rallying much against USD.

The Company is on track to produce c.200,000 oz in FY-2024. Formal FY-2024 Group production and AISC guidance will be provided at the Q4-2023 operational and trading update, expected at the end of January FY-2024.

The above is the critical bit. If it does not arrive it is a huge red flag.

I identified the cost overrun for delivering the new mine was $29.5M a few weeks back. The balance sheet repair bill appears to cover what has happened in the past. What is uncertain is how things work out in Q1 2024 with the newly constructed mine.