Member Info for Tornadotony

The USA economy is in deep trouble as the media, banks and FED play around with data that are lagging indicators. Already Wall street is miles away from the reality of main street USA. The FED is between a rock and a hard place with the fiscal debt interest running hot. At some point everyone ignores the FED and the media goldilocks stories and bank manipulations.

Shanta and Centamin on zero stochastics and the RSI levels have nearly halved in a week. Rapidly approaching oversold before we get to the FED meeting.

Shanta is so undervalued it is crazy and poleaxed again this morning on low volume. At least we have the dividend.

There is nothing wrong making trades. It is when you get an RNS telling you the company is in a takeover bid situation, or they discover a new Sukari mine a few kilometres away on drill results and then the SP gaps 6p on a delayed opening auction and the time a buy order gets taken up the price when bought is near 12p higher, then an earlier sell trade that made £1500 made on a day before does not look so clever. One never know when fundamentals or trading signals can bite you in the bum. Hence why every decision is an assessment of risk.

Things are getting really bad in the business cycle in USA from what I am picking up on the grapevine from people with business operations over there. If anyone else with business contacts over in USA has different views or same views it would help our own intelligence then depend on rosy media points of view.

The pull back in bond rate and the anticipation what the FED may need to do that was originally played out before NFP was possibly not stupid, but a window on a reality that is quite possibly unfolding. The latest NFP figures were actually fiscally pumped in delivering health services. What was interesting was the demand in nursing homes staff shot up. In some parts of UK, I gather from some people who are currently dealing with these circumstances that the time to register a death is now currently 10 days and to bury someone can now take over a month. The UK is apparently experiencing a high mortality rate on excess deaths at this time.

I want to wish everyone all the best and to look after yourselves. My own view on gold is that it has a seasonal January/February uplift. I also believe the incoming RNS drilling data is important along with Kenya resource updates. I hope the Kenya results can deliver a maiden reserve figure.

Tony

Tuan

Both La Mancha and Glencore together have enough funds to complete the project. If La Mancha discover that the final cost is true and is between $200M-$300M to complete this project they will do it with a partner like Glencore. Secondly, they will know what is required for line 2 of the project and they will probably complete it as well. They both will then own one of the most newest and cutting edge nickel mines in the world that is not controlled by Chinese interests. The best brains are resolving current problems, but they are also convenient as nickel demand is shifting a year outwards because the USA recession has certainly arrived already and it will have an impact just about everywhere and that includes China.

Another piece of logic is half or 70% of a tier grade 1 nickel mine that HZM has delivered is more than $429M. The answer is probably yes when it is outside of Chinese military interest and that has additionality value. Do the maths yourself and if you can't then stay away from all stock markets. If private investors join them in the risk why get rid of them and take a lot of other risks on board in not doing so.

In the meantime enjoy the sweet and sour which sums up your communication to all our readers.

Tony

Stochastics on daily have now hit zero. RSI in neutral territory.

How can 45,000 people returning from strikes be regarded and counted as a new job. The largest increase in jobs was healthcare of around 77,000 of which 17,000 were in nursing homes. High street retail was losing jobs in most sectors such as, electrical 6,000 down. September jobs numbers got revised down 38,000. No revisions at all were given for October. I see the data as non-conclusive. The unemployment figure looks like statistical manipulation of seasonal workers.

GGG

Eric Zurrin and all of his team have been highly reliable for the last 23 months on just about everything. The Q4 2021 was the last time we had problems and part of that was down to issues in the global supply chain.

Centamin have also not issued their drilling results thus far. Both Shanta and Centamin planned to release them this month. They are both dependent on independent assay labs providing those results. I am sure both companies sent off drilling samples many weeks ago. As soon as the results arrive and the team can write an informative RNS we shall get to see the info. Tony

I suspect the La Mancha investment in endeavour is likely to have upside in Q1.

If La Mancha has performed well on other parts of their portfolio. They would be okay to save this project. Assuming it was a geotechnical error that was being corrected then the project can recover. Instead of being in the lowest quartile of production when completed it would be a middle tier producer cost wise as they repay off the debt. Instead of the share rising from 130p to 260p as many hoped for it would re-rate to 35p-65p range with double the amount of equity shares imop. Glencore or another funder may provide support with an interest rate bond alongside an equity raise.

I agree with Wasa that it can not be done at the current share price, but there is value in knowing all the problems, the cost of resolution, how it will be financed and when due diligence completes, how work is re-starting and when the mine completion is now anticipated. All these factors will then attract buyer support and the share price achieves a level where equity raise can deliver half the additional cost. Despite all the problems 67% of the mine is complete with a large de-risk taken in absorbing most of the unknowns.

The pullback this week was to the rising trend line on 5th December and held. Gold currently is steadily marching higher with time. The causes to elevate gold values in USD remain imop. China buying gold being one of them.

It is interesting to review the last three events setting a new high in gold prices starting from 2011. The first two resulted in a failed second attempt rally to break through just below the high that was set within two weeks. In May this year we got a different pattern and there was no second immediate rally. The May 2023 peak was at a bad time as it was heading straight into seasonal low for gold. This time we have hit the peak and consolidating by getting rid of high RSI and stochastics (Stochs for gold already down from 100 to 36 during the day, but RSI still in the 60's). January and February is the Chinese New Year. We also have a budget row in Washington DC and just a few weeks away from electioneering with the Hampshire primaries. In essence we have a serious tailwinds for gold and traditionally USD sells off a bit at the start of the year on most occasions and it has a lot to do with a lot of USD going abroad after Christmas and New Year. Of course, the past is not always a guide to the future, but hopefully it rhymes in our favour in early 2024. As back up we may have good news from Centamin and yours truly has fingers and toes crossed for that one.

Https://www.ausimm.com/bulletin/bulletin-articles/mine-management-failure-mechanisms--a-geotechnical-perspective/

From the above article to save downloading.

During development and production phases of a project, mine managers can use the Reconciliation plays an important role in closing the design loop: assessing performance, enabling the identification and action plan of key learnings, and identifying deficiencies or new efficiencies in the process. Geotechnical engineers play a pivotal role in reconciliation and require this step in the process to improve upon geotechnical recommendations and designs, to verify initial assumptions are correct and relevant, and ultimately to reduce uncertainty. Since reconciliation activities are backward looking, and don’t add immediate value to the schedule, they're often sidelined when resources are light, or skipped all together. Omitting this key activity, especially from a geotechnical perspective, can have significant consequences and result in missed opportunities. Just imagine all the geotechnical uncertainties from a historical design conservatively balanced into a recommendation that continues to be implemented by a site that doesn’t have adequate geotechnical support to audit, verify, optimise, and monitor all aspects of that design against the ground and support performance; how much lost efficiency and revenue that can amount to?

The 2 October RNS is emphatically a failed geotechnical assessment imop. The company was operating to older engineering designs to July 2023. At some point in late July a new geotechnical assessment was possibly started and by late September some drastic mistakes will have been discovered or alternatively Marino requested the information and discovered the problems himself. Hence why scopes changed, more earth works needed and additional interface equipment was required. A failed geotechnical model to occur has a lot to do with the lack of availability of that skill set within the construction team until it was to late. Hence why the CEO and some Board members had to go. The time to prevent such an error was back in May 2023 and was missed imop as other work items were given higher priority.

On Bloomberg yesterday a presenter mentioned that JOLT job numbers contained a huge number of jobs that were not really available. This of course follows previous numbers where it was considered serious data when it was never really challenged before. Jolts advertisements are often used to curb pay demands of existing staff so the whole point of Jolts collection is a pile of garbage which the media channels are finally acknowledging.

The new gold high a few days ago feels like a breakdown of a NASDAQ grade 10 overhead resistance. I suspect it has now dropped to a grade 4. Another run at the highs on gold and it may break through and hold next time which may not be that far away.

I did not trade it this time. Rising support line is at 94p and we could get significant RNS data out any day. RNS 1 is the update on Sukari reserves and resources. An increase near 400,000 ounces reserves and say 200,000 resources could up rate Centamin to 106p. The second RNS is Nugris drilling results. If they discover anything like another Sukari then Centamin takes off. It is painful watching a lot of volatility and not exploiting it and I just hope that by waiting for news the end result is far better. Otherwise getting caught in FOMO after news is not always the best place to be.

Bloomberg are constantly pumping bitcoin and using phrases like it is digital gold. They point out the difficulty of melting jewellery and not getting full cost value back. They fail to point out the huge volatility of bitcoin. The requirement that bitcoin requires an internet connection as it is not a physical item that can be traded. Gold is real money and most who hold and may sell it hold coins or bars at 99.9% purity.

The criminality behind crypto currencies has been astonishing. Central banks for the most part do not include cryptocurrencies as a component of reserves. It is questionable what backs cryptocurrencies in the market. For many cryptocurrency is a device to find a great fool to acquire it. In a crisis what is preferable having gold in some form or a digital wallet with cryptocurrency. I prefer a medium that does not require orbiting satellites remaining in operation.

The 14.98 sells were buys. Buy prices moved higher a minute later.

Does this provide 20% of all the project funding and only 80% more is needed for complete finance. The company will have a flow sheet that would have delivered a small production run of income. The banks then know expansion from the pilot work delivers a much larger income stream that should support remaining finance and or some equity raise.

It would be more interesting if a medic could download the readings and check if diabetics are cheating on their blood glucose management and those who are prescribed hypertensive medication regularly actually take them. Of course doctors could tap a black box and look into a patients eye and say numbers do not lie with a finger drum role and await the apologies and excuses for dietary sin and forgetfulness. Of course there would be no point in measuring the blood pressure in the clinic as it would be sky high.

Probably the quickest rinse out of overbought on gold I have ever seen. Stochastics down to 9% and RSI in neutral range. It is extremely difficult to trade in all of this. The invite was given on a massive overbought that got crazy. Hoping we stay flat for a couple of days and can hold current levels. The gold rally has weakened overhead resistance and this is setting things up for an interesting 2024. Zero hedge reports m2 money supply is now minus 2% and the last time it was going into this territory was the USA depression in 1930.