Member Info for Tornadotony

Hi Pam,

Centamin bad times involved issues of waste not being cleared up. A programme that began two years ago will be complete by June next year. Clearing waste added to costs and it is 80% finished and this will mean lower costs of production in 2024 for Centamin. The company also spent $50M from its cash to build a solar farm and so it uses 16% less diesel in production in future years also reducing energy costs. The company also completed $125M out of $150M cost reducing programme and the maximum benefits of this will be seen in 2024. The company has Nugris drilling results to be given soon and so a new Egypt discovery of gold is possible which and is located not far from the Sukari Centamin gold mine.

Gold Eagle news recently had an article which had the sentiment on gold miners at a rock bottom low of just 5%. in other words the market hates gold miners at present and that is the best time to buy them. Centamin and other gold miners are inexpensive on many stock picking criteria. Centamin gold production in 2024 is likely to be higher than in 2023.

Tony

I have gone back in again. See what happens this time. At least it was a good day trade.

The company should RNS what the report provided in terms of the costings for the work to be done and the impact of a 4 month break and re-start as the wet season ends. The company have not divulged information that was to be provided to us.

The data is crucial as it allows us to decide and do the maths on whether this goes into administration outright, that it goes to a very low bidder to take on the entire project or that a new entrant buys say a third of the company and the others stakeholders agree it and they provide the funds to complete the mine build and commissioning phase.

1. A blow out on funding is probably if $400M was needed as $429M was spent already and lets assume the banks get there $240M back along with cornerstones and La Mancha and Glencore get their funds back. The new investor has a completion to mind build of say $950M as the administrators serve them with a juicy bill. PIs get some 5p on the share price.

2. The cost is $300M and the report identifies that a number of changes were for an up to date mine with higher efficiency. The dam works were needed because of line 2 issues being brought forward, the reason for contractors having to withdraw was some kind of unavoidable issue of late running projects elsewhere and not having staff. Lest say HZM management were incompetent of $50M of the overrun. The funders decide after due diligence they will run with it without another buyer. HZM sells some assets for $10M and let us assay Glencore loan them $10M to get through Q1 for some agreement with other stakeholders. Share price recovers to 40p or so as they get a route to completion.

Option 3 was a 40% overrun of say $215M but the stakeholders find HZM made a right mess of all the overrun aspects. They may welcome Vale for example taking over 33% of the project. Vale provides the cash and catches up to existing funders who agree better management arrangements and tighter oversight. Share price in this scenario heads back to 60p or so on the new metrics on pay back to lenders.

The problem we all have is that we have no idea what the company is doing and what exactly has gone wrong along with the cost of its component impacts.

Publican

I presume you may have taken some profits elsewhere to pile in here!.

Agree this is a proper investment.

Neil

On my trading platform this morning you could buy whatever but could not sell any shares as it took off this morning. The set up was completely different from yesterday. Tony

Stop loss took me out at 10.8p.

The nickel price decline is factoring a 2024 recession. HZM is not a 2024 producer for the most part. By 2025 a market recovery will be in play and the nickel price will be in huge demand. The time to make a partial takeover is when the price has dropped significantly. Doing takeovers at high commodity prices is usually a bad decision.

Divis next week.

The last time I did a move like this morning it went up 44p.

Okay bought back in and staying put this time. Perhaps it will get it back higher. My buys are well under £10k so thanks for the info.

This is not going as anticipated so have now backed out again.

In 2022 Vale generated over $5B in free cash flow. If they bought 1/3 of HZM they would generate at least $100M cash flow back on the investment. It would also look good in helping many HZM suppliers within Brazil. They also know key staff within HZM including Marino.

Bought back this morning. The possibility of the partners all agreeing a 1/3 sale on the asset for a new entrant(s) catching up on all their spend to date, is something I could not ignore.

Lewis

Fair enough.

Tony

I regard it as really bad form to leave a stock and then write back on that stock as a down ramper. It is something I tried hard never to do. It is really disappointing when someone who is thought to be not like that chooses to use message boards in that kind of way.

Https://genius.com/The-beatles-polythene-pam-lyrics

If Pam has placed her bet on Centamin then her money is as good as anybody else. Hope we see centamin racing to the higher like last January.

Https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/blog/dutch-central-bank-admits-prepared-new-gold-standard

I asked if they had seen physical gold from Nugrus sampling.

Hi Tony

Thanks for reaching out.

With exploration RC drill samples, whilst we pan a portion of the drill cuttings as a check for possible mineralisation and indicators of mineralisation, ultimately the results come from the samples which are sent to laboratories for assaying. The panning only gives a visual indicator to inform the exploration team/drilling and can indicate false positives i.e. the potential presence of sulphides may not necessarily indicate gold mineralisation.

We announced completion of the Nugrus drilling campaign in October and are currently awaiting full assay results, we look forward to providing an update in due course.

Regards,

Richard

Richard Foy

Corporate Analyst

Https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rickards-trilemma-runs-world

Quick read and it focuses on USD which impacts on gold of course and thus Centamin.

Taking all the ounces mined this year off the reserves, it is trading at $90 reserve and $30 resource ounce. Those reserves and resources increase next month. These valuations are typical of gold in the ground values with no working mines. To build Luika like mine and Singida is $70M. On this basis alone the share should be valued far higher on current prices in having two fully operational mines. If the conversion rate on resources to reserves was just 30% on Tanzania assets only it would be 570,000 ounces or another 6 years of production with existing reserves giving 5 years. A PE rate of 8 would be expected instead it is 5.6 times. No matter how one looks at this Shanta gold is under valued substantially and should be 15p both using reserves and resources with functional mines and also on the basis of PE rates. The entire junior mining sector is being undervalued like this but having no debt from 2024 and paying dividends is also not factored into the valuation. All of this is just valuing WK as resources in the ground. It also excludes any of the $25M owed in VAT being repaid.