Member Info for Tornadotony

Https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/peter-schiff-most-obvious-financial-crisis-nobody-sees-coming

Spot on zero hedge with Peter Schiff. A case of holding on and join nearly everybody else State side and take cash out of the banks.

For fun try plotting Centamin against Bank of America shares as they have followed the same pattern for 3 months. The share performance is nothing to do with Egypt or Centamin or what gold is doing. It has a lot to do with increasing long term Treasury bond rates. At some point the USA economy breaks and the Biden administration pretence is revealed for what it is. Banks are seeing 85% of the money in saving accounts withdrawn in 3 years or around $5.2 trillion dollars and are now at extreme lows with around $800M left State side unless the FED print money on the side-lines to maintain bank solvencies. The USA has forgotten how to save for anything and generate growth and a recession is rolling down the hill. 67% of the USA consumer economic engine is begin to stall like a plane engine at a great height. On Bloomberg they pretend all the jobs data is real and the collapse underway in the USA housing sector is just temporary as higher wages will save the day. I am amazed they can say it with a straight face especially when they deny all the loan non-payments and delinquencies rising through the roof. Time to check out zero hedge.

Rover it is $200M needed for funding. The company has attracted 6 months of additional debt interest on the timeline to production. $725M say at a total debt of 6.5% if at 13% rates is around $47M. In addition they will need monies to ramp up production once underway. The reserve for that purpose is around $80- $90M. $76M+ $47M + ($80 to $90M) = A range between $203M to $213M approximately.

On 3 year graphs Endeavour mining , Shanta Gold and Centamin have outperformed Fresnillo, AAZ, HoC, Sol Gold, Hummingbird and GGP by a reasonable margin. On a 3 month graph HoC and Shanta Gold have outperformed other UK listed precious miners with Centamin and Endeavour holding joint third place.

The problem is not so much with Centamin as it is to do with all UK precious metal listed stocks. None are higher than their listing 12 months ago.

Centamin has a lot of intermediate positives for 2024. It is likely in a bottoming process. The most it may go on for is around a month. The next rally for Centamin could well deliver a 25-30p increase on the current price.

Reduced debt should increase enterprise value by 0.25p on share price.

The company are correct in emphasising that construction has an excellent safety record to date.

The RNS demonstrates several areas that were outside the control of HZM project management and they are responding to new data at Gods speed. A few issues could have been errors as I do not know what they mean about refactory. Overall, the RNS has given us a better picture of what has unfolded. I suspect if corporate bonds are issued then PIs have a long wait for breakeven as the bonds will have to be repaid first. It has to be a perfect run from now on.

Responsibility that Fisher has.

A non-executive chairman is a role that is not involved in the day-to-day management of a business. Instead, the role is focused on effective management of the board 1. As a ‘non-executive’, the chair is impartial and can use this distance to maintain an objective position, albeit with the duty of representing the interests of all shareholders 2. The chairman leads the board, sets its agenda, and ensures it is an effective working group at the head of the company 1. He must promote a culture of openness and debate and is responsible for effective communication with shareholders.

Https://news.metal.com/newscontent/102426487/Rare-Earth-Prices-And-Output-Both-Rose-In-September-Can-Peak-Season-Expectations-Be-Materialised-In-October-[SMM-Monthly-Outlook]

Awaiting orders to see growth trends. I guess they are waiting to see if Biden's request for $100 billion in military aid for Ukraine and Israel gets approved. (Should allow quite a bit for rare earths incorporated into missiles and military equipment.)

I would expect the next RNS to come from the Chairman of the Board William Fisher who owns 0.73% of the company stock. He holds the power alone to dismiss Jeremy Martin or have him retained in post. If we have a competency issue, the CEO will be removed quite possibly with the CFO and both will get stand in replacements and eventually others get posted in later on. If we do not have a competency issue in that design changes were necessary as a result of new technology advances to improve productivity and avoid building a less competitive mining operation and that some major contractors took kick backs elsewhere to renege on delivery contracts then we get to hear who those companies are and it will be their operations that lose corporate trust just about everywhere and the Chairman then fully backs Jeremy Martin and incidentally other major shareholders also follow behind the Chairman with whatever action is taken.

Some of us want to see an RNS delivered from the Chairman William Fisher as it will help us what has gone wrong by the actions he now decides to take. I of course hope it is supportive to Jeremy Martin. It would be a very powerful RNS for the Chairman to come out and back Jeremy Martin at this time. He can no longer remain silent on where he stands on all of this.

Just hoping GB has saved some good news this week after South Africa has walloped us English in cricket and the rugby although the later had luck about it.

Cowichan

My view on Doropo was made before. I believe they should sell Doropo and buy Shanta Gold outright. Suppose it cost them $250M to buy Shanta Gold and they get $25M for Doropo. They will have an asset that delivers 90,000 ounces plus a year for the next 5 years. This would give 550,000 ounces net to Centamin plus they would have a major West Kenya asset that competes with g/t gold grades we have seen with Sukari underground mine in the past and is far more promising to develop. I estimate Centamin would build a net surplus of $700M in the bank if they bought Shanta Gold. I can not understand why they are not doing it. Doropo is for an existing West African miner to develop. Centamin should stick to being an east African mining company.

When comparing with the past, Reserves and resources plus cash in the bank need to be factored in. The best comparison is with H1 with average gold sold at 1935 say at 220,000 (425M revenue). Q3 probably 118,000 ounces but at 1925 price 227M revenue and Q4 with 60,000 hedged at 1900 and let us 1700 for 60,000 worse case (216M Revenue). the revenue is within $2M and if gold was 1800 average for unhedged it would be plus $4M. Although there is more Capex in H2 the reserves and resources are updated. H1 average price is 106p and we are nowhere near it.

A lot of people do not believe the figures coming out of BLS on NFP anymore. They revised two earlier months higher as well. A lot of temporary workers were getting employed for Christmas run in and a lot of retirees getting replaced are listed as a new job number. So the revisions get made when the retired job gets filled or whatever. A lot of temporary jobs then disappear but some get counted again when temporary employment returns. In the meantime used as an excuse to lower gold prices and pump USD.

My original target for HZM EV value on first pour was 200p or say £540M I have added 8% cash to the investment on average down at these low prices. This has reduced my target price thus far for HZM to 144p with an enterprise value of £385M, This equates to a value reduction of £151M or $181M. I need to have the outcome of the report to decide what to do next. I have assumed there is some efficiency improvements on the redesign that may have added some value back on the overrun.

I have gone through with this on other mining projects that had cost overruns and lost value. My message back to them is that I will wait for the report and see what happens. I will be taking a time out from now on. Stay well everybody and take a break yourself and love what is most important near to you.

Https://www.usagold.com/daily-gold-market-report/

$250B increase in one day. End of next week we can hit $35 trillion at that rate. Wow USD stays stronger as well. like Alice in wonderland stuff.

Daily RSI hit low 19 earlier today but managed to close at 20. The lowest in 13 years I have seen on gold was a daily RSI at 18. I have never seen the daily lower. The weekly RSI has just dropped under 33. I write it on here as not how massively oversold gold is on this day.

Rover

There was only a 1 in 5 chance this issue was not going to happen. It applies that the all the key sponsors knew there was a 4 in 5 chance they would need to provide further funding. They set high targets for the funding for a perfect project. Jeremy and his team did that for the first half (some botch ups like Fresnillo happen at that phase with no power to the mine). Jeremy had to act fast as things went wrong and the sponsors will see the speed of when he knew and when he acted. The RNS on Monday was a rushed job simply because things were now going wrong and he has demonstrated what he is doing to get it de-risked.

I should add the world is not full of half built mines. This project will get completed.