Member Info for Tornadotony

USA hedge funds tried twice to break yen. Looks like USA Treasuries were sold off in support. Somebody wanted this unnecessary event to happen. It will be interesting to see if Japan buys gold heavily overnight and replaces sold USA Treasuries with gold. It will be interesting to see if China also off loads USA Treasuries on the Asian markets. Perhaps USA wanted to blame somebody else for high interest rates, but they have clearly provoked what has unfolded. All in time for a nice USA government shutdown with a scarcity of data.

The hedge completes June 2024 and although waste stripping end this year it would be typical of Centamin to overrun a month or two and earn more money in Q4 by spending less on the waste disposal contract especially if the counter party wanted that arrangement if other contracts were getting put back.

Gold price retreat from $1966 to $1897 is say 3.5% drop which is how much pound sterling has dropped against USD during September. The pence earnings per share is remaining the same.

Perhaps that $6M that was spent in July comes back into play. If Q4 was 1800 average per ounce then the $6M is repaid and the coverage in H1 is free. Average sale price in Q3 likely to be near $1920 per ounce. Probably any sell for the rest of this month is now hedged at $1900. If they hold $1850 average sales price in Q4 the annual average sell price would only fall to $1910 area. If earnings are 11p a share then 8 times earnings takes us to 88p. Previous PE multiple was 16. 50% reduction in multiples does appear severe.

How many here thought the investment in Northern Ireland a few years back was wasted money. How many still feel 19% of Libero has been wonderful after an 80% SP drop. The board have made other decisions which are odd like giving loans out to friends as if they were some kind of bank. They also got the reserves of ore wrong on Zafar.

The CEO pointed out tailings dam issues years ago and the need to set aside around $25M for a new tailings dam or thereabouts. Instead the Board increased the height of the existing dam and kicked the can down the road. They now want to increase the height of the existing dam higher and at the same time build a new tailings dam. The first issue is extending a tailings dam even higher should be a deep concern. The initial decision made sense on safety grounds in not elevating that dam any higher. The idea of the President deciding they he can be assured by engineers that they can take the risk is quite troubling when the transparency is hidden by saying we operate to x standard. Once a dam was altered once and it is being altered further again then the standards become difficult to apply and interpret as the situation becomes more unique with little to compare with when using standards applied for the initial design. Considering some of the other decisions of the board there is a lot to worry about here. Buying the stock without seeing the environmental report is flying blind. Anyone buying here is speculating and guessing. I think it is utterly irresponsible to hype 100p share price here.

In the meantime this share is only trading with the recovery of the the $20M bank loan last year. During the loan when the share price was 8.8p and without it add 1.6p as enterprise value conversion. There has no been no increase from higher production, a higher gold price and added gold reserves and resources. This has to be one of the most undervalued stocks in the market.

I would be most happy with 30p a share. A firm contract is probably necessary to help deliver $12M a year income.

Steve

When you say economic data, does that include all the skulduggery from Hedge fund traders, banks and bullion houses now going on with the expiry of today's gold options trading ? Tony

USA government interest on debt rose from 1.6% to 2.07% and is on an upward trajectory. All I can see is a USA government expanding its debt. Debt repayments of $970B are greater than the USA defence budget. Shut down on Saturday will identify if USA has any plans at all in controlling its fiscal spending. If they do not and the rates stay higher for longer the debt interest percentage climbs higher on all the debt. The agency downgrading USD pointed to all the current problems hence why Tanzania may prefer holding gold in the reserves. This all comes to head at some point. Currently watching if yen breaks 150 and JCB steps in to sell the USD.

In the meantime I am glad not to be invested in AAZ which released a going concern statement this morning.

I should comment there is no volume. Stock is moving along with macroevents is my guess.

FT S&P Global Market Intelligence confirms short activity on Nanoco stock. Graded medium.

USA hedge funds and other entities have shorted the yen at highest ever levels. They are trying to force Japan Central bank to hike rates. Japan is against doing it as inflation is 3.2% and the highest it rose to was just 4.3% a few months back and is falling back again. Japan Central bank has said the aggressive action by USA hedge funds would be responded to as they see it as an attempt to crush their currency and undermining their policies in managing price stability in Japan. The likely response is the sell off of billions of USA Treasuries and heavy selling of USD. The latest on Bloomberg is that USA investment sources are taking on JCB and will continue to force devaluation of the yen and they intend to exploit Japan's requirement to import oil by taking out more long bets on oil.

I presume the purpose is to weaponize the strength of USD by weakening all other currencies where they can. The pound has been dumped for not continuing with interest rates rises despite having been net purchasers of USA Treasuries. The Japanese and also Saudi Arabia public have been heavily buying physical gold.

We should know soon when yen breaks higher above 150.

Https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Tuesday is options day on gold.

There was a really naughty USA President who had a bad memory and farted a lot and slept most hours of the day. He decided his chances for re-election were quite small and that he may be in the land of the fairies next year in any case. So he decided to splash loads of money and he borrowed $1 trillion dollars and put it on his overdraft bill and spent it in just 94 days. The overdraft was already a whopping $32 trillion and he managed to get it to $33 trillion. The previous year the interest payment was just $400M, but the banks relied on getting their money from somebody else and they wanted higher interest repayment cheques. After the naughty President's spending increased that interest bill was now $970M.

Unfortunately nobody overseas wants to loan more money as they worry if it can get paid back and they think mass production of dollar bills is going on in the background and unlike gold was just the same price as toilet paper. They also sensed a sting operation in play as everyone knows that false data was used to manipulate stock equity movements which are set up for profiting by bank cartels who had inside knowledge as to who won the race that day and who lost before the race was run. Before they were reasonably careful to hide such things, but now they do not care and know they will get no punishment for also being very naughty. As the President and others rely on their banks to give them money they do not mind if they cheat and lie to everybody else and tell them goldilocks stories that do not in anyway relate to their realties of all the people who they take money from.

Unfortunately all this trickery and naughtiness with other people's money comes home to roost. Eventually everyone stands up for a major change as what is real becomes obvious to the dumbest of all people. The naughty Presidents and the bank cartels are then dragged out to end up being marshmallows with big sticks put through them and then barbecued.

The bedtime lesson is to be better than the naughty people and to be the best you can be and to always remember that you can not fool all the people all the time.

GGG

Remember they get $7.5M VAT back in October and a Court hearing takes place on the remaining $22M historical VAT.

Historical VAT adds 1.8p to share price.

Tony

Folks have a choice 5% gain by owning USA Treasuries or own equity stock like this where the return is much higher than 5%, but has the risk of future nickel market demand. A case of doing the maths.

Pound has dropped 4% in September against USD. This should be a 5p plus tailwind for the stock. Currency is still falling hard.

Going down hard again this morning at 1.2265. Once 1.2250 goes the next point to hold is around 120. 4% down this month. £1.7M additional income from Samsung in February.

Pound continues to devalue against USD 1.2275 and going lower.

On zero hedge they reported the USA repo market which had liquidity of $2.6 trillion dollars now stands at $1.6 trillion dollars. The repo market enables collateral loans and other activities and is a major source of liquidity in the American markets. The $1 trillion came out to fund $1 trillion dollars of USA Treasuries since June when the debt ceiling got raised. The $1 Trillion Quantitative tightening by the FED which came off their balance sheet was then moved into a stealth like budget line which replaces cashed out deposits in the USA banks. The savings rates in USA has nose dived. Some have used personal savings to meet higher living costs. Wealthier families may have closed bank accounts to buy higher rate USA Treasuries. So the entire QT process is not really tightening at all as it props up Regional banks and some of the majors. As a back drop China has dumped $400B in USA Treasuries and has another $800B to sell. Saudi Arabia has reduced its need for USA Treasuries as they move away to less petrodollars and Japan central banker has made it clear they will defend the yen against USA weakening their currency by selling USA Treasuries. The bank rate to watch this week is Japan not USA or UK.

The USA treasury market issues are taking more monies away from the equity market as yields go up higher and higher. There is another major issue as the Treasuries climb. USA debt interest payments on $33 trillion are at 2.07% up from 1.6% a few months ago and climbing fast. USA is going into an election year with rapidly draining liquidity. It has a USA public where debt delinquencies rates are 100% up in August on previous months and set to race higher in the coming weeks. A significant number of consumers have maxed out on tightening credit limits. The FED yesterday orchestrated an all is wonderful forecast yesterday where they can hold rates higher for longer. The 700B interest debt USA Treasury pays per annum goes a lot higher and tax receipts have been falling in USA not mentioned by the FED. The markets have behaved today as if the fairy tales from the FED and no price manipulations in the market are taking place. While this belief continues it is possible for HZM share price to retreat. I would give this charade about 5 weeks say and the cracks will then show up by then. (Probably in the USA real estate market like in 2008). When the FED sees a mess unfolding they will pivot and Treasury rates drop as they buy tons of them and devalue the dollar. At this point HZM share price goes up fast as the debt will be devalued in USD and the nickel price will be much higher than where it is now. This of course is all my opinion and hence why I won't bother trading around HZM. Regards Tony.