Member Info for Tornadotony

The average overrun on all new mining projects is 38-43%. The problems arising are typical of what HZM have just encounter and it frequently is at this project stage. The disaster is not facing up to it and continuing and doing nothing. The projects have these issues are 80% of all projects. The banks and all funders and the CEO and CFO as well as all of HZM board knew that such risks could arise. A point made by McKinsley is that the mining industry competitively evolves all the time. Design changes and improvements are inevitable if the output is to have a high productivity modern state of the art mine.

At least Brazil has no active volcanoes on the risk assessment. Sulawesi island has 12 and North Maluku has 2 where all the Indonesian nickel is produced.

I think the arrival of Marino in August probably saved this company. The worse thing to happen is to try and do a metal pour in March and problems with outdated design construction have messed up productivity and they have to be resolved on rework. The cost scenario in that situation would have been a nightmare. Hopefully this is all a long term fix and we get a clear run from now on. Marino has a good record with running a Vale Ferronickel mine and improving it. If he arrived earlier we would have still faced this problem.

Apologies email letter that was the same as everyone got who wrote to the company and already posted here. Hereshopin put it on earlier.

My order just went through on the trading account. 33p average down for £1800. I think they will resolve this crisis. The letter received this morning confirms what I think has arisen since Marino's arrival to finally de-risk the project. I have either made things 8% worse or have given myself a life line in a year's time to breakeven at least.

Cowichan not doing enough homework and it would not be the first time marketscreener have given incomplete data.

Https://www.vaneck.com/uk/en/investments/junior-gold-miners-etf/holdings/

On this particular fund I could find 3m Centamin shares you may find them listed in other gold funds,

Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/CEY.L/holders?p=CEY.L

end of August data.

Mumbles

Events on HZM have been painful and it still may have risks in the coming weeks. Pensana getting funding is just the first major challenge. I hold the same amount of HZM as Pensana. This game is not for widows and orphans. The importance is not having too much money on one pie and to have plenty of spare pies in the oven as the winners quite often subsidy those who get unlucky. It is particularly true when projects are not oven ready. All the best Tony

As pointed out by razor the volume is telling us that everybody is sitting tight or jetting off somewhere on two week October holidays and forgetting about manipulated false data pumped out by USA agencies which optionally apply seasonal adjustments to dictate the ongoing preferred rhetoric. Gold and the gold miners are getting absolutely hammered into the ground in USD currency. My foray in the low 90's on CEY was to early, but I have kept back more fire power for November. The typical length of time over many years of charts suggest that the sellers are empty on naked shorts after 4 weeks in extreme oversold conditions achieved at unbelievable levels of leverage. We have entered that zone and if we get a relief rally soon it will rollover to give that final washout bottom. At that point are piggy banks get cracked open and we fire up a rally and go overweight with the confidence that the poker hand is our favour.

As for Centamin that 1900 hedge is not being covered by ETF Cey induced selling. The share is a discounted pleasure for buyers to line up and wait and enjoy the future ride up ahead. The price going down is not something that Centamin staff can do anything more about. Tony

For just over £1200 I averaged down 45p in the ISA. It is a punt which I hope won't make things worse. It least it is under the Cannacord target.

Welcome aboard Major Tom that is a lucky sign.

In one month the Samsung dollars to pounds is £2.5M higher. The company is getting no benefit from being priced in a weaker currency.

Pound has dropped further when I last looked. Pound in gold rate is the same as it was 1 July as USD has took off. CFO was smart to hedge 1900 gold for half the production until end of June next year.

Sorry about typos changing words like where and saying.

Why

1. You had the guts to invest your money and manage it yourself.

2. You invested in a company that was trying to impact climate protection policies in an ethical way.

3. You invested in a company were big institution owned 75% of the company.

4. You invested in a company which banks put in $350M after lengthy due diligence.

5. You invested in a company that for 12 months of construction gave quite excellent results.

6. You were blind sided by an RNS of which many of us have not seen before and only a minority could claim they had seen something similar.

7. In trading accounts you have a tax loss whether you sold holding a proportion of it or you deliberately want the blow out to give you a big chunk of future Capital Gains Tax allowance as £6,000 going to £3,000 next year is stupid limit and probably zippo under a Labour Government administration if they follow a year later. One day you will have a big win and won't have to pay 20-40% tax on those profits providing you record a carryover loss each year in the tax return.

8. All investors take a hit occasionally and anyone seeing they are perfect at trading stocks is probably a liar. The HZM memory scar you get with the loss enhances your portfolio management in future in how you manage risks.

9. A lot of intelligent successful people invested in HZM and so you are in good company. Do not think you are an idiot. Life tests our resilience in many ways. Trust yourself to learn, question and observe. Tony

Going down with titanic on this one. Using the loss on 80% of the holding against future CGT. I just seem to find defeat from the jaws of victory. 6% of the portfolio gone essentially. 115p average with the free carry. Will hedge the other 20% holding loss in an ISA over time. Constantly relying on winners to get over things like what happened here. Last year the only profit made was in divis. Been a tough two years. De-risked 45% on another stock from winners earlier in the year.

In the meantime praying for a miracle on HZM as I take a break away from all this.

I believe Marino wanted essential changes to the project shortly after he arrived. Jeremy was aware of a risk in November having 4,000 construction staff on site and just swapping priorities around in case of a supplier issue was not going to work. Glencore, La Mancha were probably supportive of the appointment of Marino as has delivered projects nearing this position before and would know what design changes may be needed to deliver the most productive mine.

In some way my confidence outcome of a mine getting built by September next year and will be a tier 1 from an operational perspective has increased. Will I trade at some kind of breakeven a year or two from now is what I do not know. I averaged down at 90p before and it created an established 20% free carry when I sold at 157 and rebought in the 130's along with similar volatile trades between 5 and 8p old money. To do that again I would need Jeremy to find the time to talk to us on how they got in this situation and why the previous route could not continue and that we really will have a de-risked project from now on.

Daily RSI on gold hits 21. In the area amongst the lowest RSI that I observe on the bottom of a pullback. USD heavily approaching heavily overbought.

Contrarian I won't see your communications any more, I know how to arrange it with the green button.