Member Info for Tornadotony

The most powerful position for a company the size of Nanoco to be in a few months from now is having many millions in the bank. A lot is going wrong in USA banks and delinquency rates on loans recently doubled up. They are likely to increase further as company filings for bankruptcy hit a record in August. A number of USA Regional banks are in trouble needing around $490B in support from the FED. Evidence of the USA consumer being able to front load the USA economy is likely to show exhaustion next month. USA fiscal deficit against taxes is running higher from $1.4 trillion to $2 trillion and hence a recent downgrade from one credit agency.

China is in deep trouble as well and so is the EU. It is quite possible for the Italian economy to blow up next month as confidence in buying Italian bonds could plummet. The UK is also heading into trouble with debt delinquency rates going higher and job losses starting to appear. In fact most of the global economy is heading into recession. Corporate debt has enjoyed a honeymoon by borrowing heavy when rates were low, but that advantage wears off next year. In fact cash will be king and any company that has a pile of cash to get through the recession unfolding remains in the business game. Nanoco competitors that only have debt and no cash are dead in the water by the middle of next year. The real reason why certain parties wanted Nanoco cash nest year becomes more obvious.

So with all the arguments of whether a no deal should have been struck and Nanoco having no cash or precious little in 2024, may then see that it was good foresight to have a deal banked and have the strength to win deals when others can not raise more debt funds or face retreating on their own resources just to keep the lights on.

Hopefully LOAM may send us a signal and buy some Nanoco shares. It is difficult to make business decisions in the early days of a recession but that was when Branson created his Virgin company and went for a new future. Hopefully STM and its market outlets sources have the same futuristic longer term view.

Wishing you all a great weekend. Tony

1. Short covering rally.

2. Shorts taken out at higher price. Wash

3. FED reports. price drops a bit. Rinse

4. Gold grinds lower for the next few days. Dry

5. Short covering low reached. Repeat.

Centamin higher low between 86 to 87p before any news. We have very hard resistance to break at 90.5p and have been stopped 3 times in a row. Need good news to get over it.

Could be the reason why gold and miners up today. The big banks in USA getting sold off.

93% majority of my CEY position is long. Have a small short above 89p just in case they play games either today or next week. So far the volatility is in our favour today.

We can get some crazy volatility on a day like this. Most of the fun can be in the afternoon.

It is rumoured that a novice investor put on CEY shorts this week using CFDs at a leverage of 1000 times for every penny moved. Probably to show off how fast they could make a million pounds by having Centamin price drop from 85.5p to 84.5p earlier in the week to daddy after acquiring some of his stuff. After all gold was going down lower. So instead of making a million the professional traders have enjoyed a field day driving the price 3p higher and that leveraged short is rumoured to be £3M in the red. I bet the brokers daddy does business with have been trying to contact daddy all day, but you have muted that phone and enjoyed playing a game with him as where he may have lost his important stuff..

So MHenderson your daddy is not going to be pleased with you and won't make any allowance for your facial acne problem. He won't be impressed with you taking his mobile phone, wallet and using his passwords to set up the naughty trade you did. I think it is best that you tell daddy and confess what you have done. If we do not hear from you again we can guess what has happened. Some of us will check to see if any children on Amazon with the name MHenderson have been put up for sale.

To all the other readers, I repeat it is all an unfounded rumour that CFD 1000 times leverage short position on Centamin was actually taken out It is only a rumour that MHenderson actually did this and this person is a child.

Mhenderson

How is the short on CEY shares going on your CFDs?

Tony

Following not falling

The relevance of the story below is how future demand for commodities will be a lot higher as a result of making do with older products for far longer when ideally they are do for replacement. The higher rates reduce commodity demand for today but they will be needed in larger numbers down stream later on and supports the idea of holding HZM for the future.

Last month a major car dealership for second hand vehicles in Florida went bankrupt with $400M debts and quite a few others around the country are falling a similar pattern as the American consumer depletes savings and hits maximum on the credit card, the option of them buying a newer second hand car diminishes. Of course as companies like the one in Florida fail it adds to the on-going Regional bank problems state side as well ( where on-going additional financial support by the way equals most of the FED balance sheet reduction they have done on QT).

Today we see USA inflation figures and top of the list in the report, I read car repairs rising 12% per annum and car insurance premiums up 19%. So as less commodity fuelled inflation is choked off by rate rises it creates more service inflation to keep going with older products. A similar pattern is emerging in housing, inevitable mortgage rates are higher and so are rents that appear in CPI basket. Overall I suspect we get a pause on interest rates next week by the FED as it does not make a lot of sense when interest rates choke demand in one area only to increase it somewhere else. In the meantime any current recessionary impact on materials using nickel will bounce back later on. Tony

Https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

As a consequence of so many people not replacing cars, annual maintenance inflation is 12% higher and car insurance state side up 19% in a year. Going out to eat in a restaurant 6.5% higher and far greater than most areas of food inflation. A lot of the inflation data looks as if it is under control. There is service inflation in particular areas running hotter. Here in the UK we have certainly seen restaurants charging more re-mortgages on housing down 5.5% after the latest 30 year rise by around 0.07% on 30 year rate. The housing market holding up but only just so. Really tricky to raise rates on that data. Higher rates are choking off one part of the economy and the downstream impacts actually cause inflation by not investing newer for older. Makes no sense to elevate rates in that scenario. I suspect a pause next week with hawkish swagger talk.

Probably when they ran out of diesel ages back.

Speaking of the Fed this just came out on Gold eagle. FED calls the deficit an asset.

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/lots-red-ink-fed

I always suspect down ramping from new identities with just 3 posts or so on LSE when they speculate on such news with no link. It is possible that it was old news seen from years ago.

The pound down 0.44% at 1.245 USD. It has dropped 3 cents in a week or so. This alone should take us back up 0.2p on the sell.

S1.2449 after results UK. The direction of pound going lower by 0.44%.

Steve,

I am holding my Centamin and Shanta gold positions and have no short positions in play. I pulled out of HoC at 92p recently as I do not want to own gold miners with debts.

On Sqwark box a presenter on the team made a brief one sentence concern about AI this week. They said that AI could be misused by technology funders to block open source journalistic reporting. So powerful sources like the USA Government can churn out rubbish data to support a particular narrative and use AI on search engines to push the web away from accurate sources of information by individuals commenting on reporting outcomes they had researched and discovered independently. I believe it is really important to do a lot of research in what is now going on.

As for the regional banks, they are by various means getting bailed out. As the USA FED applauds themselves for $1Trillion dollars of QT we know as a fact that at least $500B has gone into known failed banks and rescue depositors. There is a chance at present that another $500B is going to get ploughed back out again soon to more failing USA regional banks as local business keeps going under. So the $1T dollars came out of one budget line, but probable non-declared money printing was done somewhere else to keep everything evens.

If the Regional banks all collapsed in USA, the six major big banks would earn a fortune being paid by the FED to take them all on. The question remains what impact does all of this have on USD. In my opinion, the argument of having the cleanest shirt does not hold water. I believe the USD retreats to a degree probably 6% or so as the bragging stops for a short time at least. The impact on Centamin and Gold could be favourable and Centamin revisits the 120p peak price again a few months later. The price of gold then reverts back to what it could buy back in 2019 on major items in the same ounces of gold.

In the meantime the market is highly pessimistic on gold miners to an extent that is is within a few weeks of a major low like 95% bearish in views from the current upper 80's%. On 4 previous occasions major rallies have occurred when miners hit such a situation with everyone sitting on one side of the boat in total despondency. Hence my contrarian views.

Https://wallstreetonparade.com/2023/09/fdic-releases-a-new-problem-bank-list-its-an-exercise-in-fantasy/

I sense things are going badly wrong on the quality of assets held by many Regional banks. Another 0.25% rate hike could set off a chain reaction of bank failures State side. Does the value of USD go up in a banking collapse?

Example of what is happening in main street USA besides the epidemic in shop lifting off retailers.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/another-one-fails-subprime-auto-dealership-faces-collapse

Some of the contributions made on here are genuine, informative, sensitive to existing project risks and so forth and the readership is thankful to them for making the effort. The world of social media however does generate a lot of sewage and some who contribute in that forum arrive on here, and other LSE Boards, and specialise in that line of sewage spreading business. Sadly we can only advise using the green filter button that is just above to the left near the share button as a toilet flush to ignore those type of contributions as they arrive.

Would give in previous.

A factor suggesting the price going up is USD gaining strength versus pound. Currently at $1.25 but the direction is downwards. Nanoco to get more pounds from dollars is a likely outcome next February. If the shift is 5% it would 0.8p per share here.